The upcoming summer is shaping up to be a significant one for restricted free agents (RFAs) in the NHL, with predictions of substantial salary increases for top prospects. Dave Pagnotta of The Fourth Period discussed this trend on Sirius XM NHL Network Radio, highlighting players like Connor Bedard, Macklin Celebrini, Leo Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier, and Zach Benson.
Pagnotta noted that while the excitement of offer sheets might be limited, the sheer financial figures for these RFAs are expected to be remarkably high. He attributed this surge to the rapidly increasing salary cap, which is projected to reach $104 million next season and continue its ascent into the $113.5 million range, potentially pushing towards $130 million within three to four years.
This upward trend in the salary cap is anticipated to be reflected in the contracts signed by these young stars. Pagnotta suggested that if some players opt for full-term deals, contracts in the $16 million to $18 million AAV range could be set, potentially establishing new benchmarks. Macklin Celebrini, eligible to sign starting July 1st, is also expected to command a significant contract.
The RFA class includes notable names such as Jason Robertson (Dallas Stars), Zach Benson (Buffalo Sabres), Connor Bedard (Chicago Blackhawks), Simon Nemec (New Jersey Devils), Leo Carlsson and Cutter Gauthier (Anaheim Ducks). Macklin Celebrini (San Jose Sharks) is also eligible for an extension.
There’s a strong expectation that Celebrini and Bedard could sign contracts that make them the highest-paid players on their respective teams, though likely not reaching Kirill Kaprizov’s $17 million AAV. Negotiations for players like Gauthier and Carlsson with the Anaheim Ducks, under GM Pat Verbeek, will be closely watched, especially given past instances where players missed training camp due to contract disputes.
Overall, the RFA market is poised to be more dynamic and headline-grabbing this offseason compared to the unrestricted free agent market.
English Translation:
Dave Pagnotta of The Fourth Period joined Sirius XM NHL Network Radio’s Power Play Segment with Steve Kouleas and Anthony Stewart on Tuesday. He was asked about restricted free agents (RFAs) such as Connor Bedard, Macklin Celebrini, Leo Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier, and others, and whether they might receive higher average annual values (AAV) than anticipated.
Pagnotta stated, “RFAs are interesting. Yeah, the RFAs are really interesting, because it’s not interesting in the sense that this is going to be, I know you want silly season and the offer sheets and all that, because it’s so spicy and sexy to talk about, but more so the money, the type of dollars that are going to go out to the Bedards, the Carlsons, Gauthiers, Robertsons, etc. even Zach Benson to a different degree, but all of these numbers I think are going to start, they’re going to look a little high.
I think everyone’s going to look at these and go, ‘This guy just got how much,’ and it’s going to be a product of the way that the league is trending. The cap is up to $104 million, it’s going up to $113.5 million, give or take, next season, it’s going to go in the 120s, the following season, we’re going to be pushing 130 in three, four seasons, so these numbers are going to be reflective of that.
And I think it’s, I’m not intrigued necessarily by the potential of offer sheets, I’m more intrigued by the numbers that are going to come out of this, especially if some guys go full term, we could see $16, $17, $18 million to set a new one, and then (Macklin) Celebrini a year later, and he’s eligible to sign on July 1st as well.
So there’s going to be some very interesting numbers, I think, thrown around this offseason with respect to some of the RFAs that are ready to hit the market.”
NHLRumors.com Note: It is a big summer for the restricted free agent class, which includes Jason Robertson of the Dallas Stars, Zach Benson of the Buffalo Sabres, Connor Bedard of the Chicago Blackhawks, Simon Nemec of the New Jersey Devils, and Leo Carlsson and Cutter Gauthier of the Anaheim Ducks. In addition, Macklin Celebrini of the San Jose Sharks is eligible for an extension.
There is a sense that Celebrini and Bedard could break the bank on their next contracts. Could they get as high as Kirill Kaprizov’s $17 million AAV? Probably not. But the expectation is that both will be the highest-paid players on their respective clubs.
All signs are pointing to the Dallas Stars and Jason Robertson getting an extension done. We know Ducks GM Pat Verbeek is a tough negotiator, but he will want to get Gauthier and Carlsson signed quickly so he does not repeat history, as Mason McTavish, Trevor Zegras (now in Philadelphia), and Jamie Drysdale (also in Philadelphia) missed training camp.
It will be an interesting offseason, more so on the RFA market than the UFA market.
