Wrexham hasn`t competed in the second tier of English football since 1982, but promotion is now remarkably close for Wales` oldest football club as the League One season nears its conclusion. With just two matches remaining, the path forward is clear for Phil Parkinson`s team, especially after receiving significant assistance from Charlton Athletic on Easter Monday. Following Wycombe Wanderers dropping points, the equation for the Red Dragons is simple: winning their final two games will secure their place in the Championship.
The promotion race shifted significantly in Wrexham`s favour during the 44th round of fixtures. They secured a tense away victory against Blackpool. Goals from James McClean and Ollie Rathbone just after the hour mark put them ahead, though a late response from Rob Apter led to a nervy finish at Bloomfield Road before their successful win was confirmed. Concurrently in south London, Charlton delivered a major boost to Wrexham`s aspirations by comprehensively defeating Wycombe 4-0 at the Valley, knocking them out of the automatic promotion spots.
However, the story isn`t quite finished yet. That victory kept Charlton`s own slim hopes of automatic promotion alive. Their next opponent? Wrexham, at the Racecourse Ground. By the time this crucial match is played, Wrexham will know if Leyton Orient has done them another favour by taking points off Wycombe earlier on April 26th. The finish line is within sight for the Welsh side, but the question remains: can they hold on?
League One Automatic Promotion Race
| Team | Pld. | W | D | L | GD | Pts. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 42 | 30 | 9 | 3 | 45 | 99 |
| 2 | Wrexham | 44 | 25 | 11 | 8 | 28 | 86 |
| 3 | Wycombe | 44 | 24 | 12 | 8 | 28 | 84 |
| 4 | Charlton | 44 | 24 | 10 | 10 | 25 | 82 |
| 5 | Stockport | 44 | 23 | 12 | 9 | 27 | 81 |
| 6 | Leyton Orient | 44 | 22 | 6 | 16 | 20 | 72 |
The top two teams gain automatic promotion to the Championship, while teams ranked third through sixth will compete in the playoffs, culminating in a final at Wembley on May 25th after two-legged semi-finals.
Wrexham`s Remaining Fixtures
- April 26: Charlton (h)
- May 3: Lincoln (a)
What Wrexham Needs for Automatic Promotion
Wrexham can secure automatic promotion to the Championship with a victory against Charlton on Saturday. However, they will require a favour from Leyton Orient, who must either win or draw against Wycombe Wanderers in their earlier match to ensure a Wrexham win is sufficient. If these results align, Wrexham would establish a lead of at least four points over Wycombe, a gap that would be impossible for Wycombe to close with only one game left in the season.
Could Wrexham`s Rise Be Historic?
If Wrexham successfully holds off Wycombe and the other contenders, they would achieve three consecutive promotions. In the 2022-23 season, they returned to the English Football League after a 15-year absence and immediately followed that by securing promotion from League Two in second place.
While several other English clubs have risen through three levels of the pyramid consecutively – and Truro City and Shaw Lane even achieved four straight promotions – none have ascended so quickly through the higher echelons of the English football structure. For comparison, FC United of Manchester also achieved three promotions after their founding in 2005, but this took them to the Northern Premier League Premier Division, which is the seventh tier of the pyramid.
Wrexham`s challenge has been against increasingly professional opposition as they push for the second tier. The National League in 2022-23 featured mostly, if not entirely, professional clubs, and every team in Leagues Two and One is fully professional. It`s also crucial to acknowledge that Wrexham, under the ownership of Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney, have possessed significant financial resources, which have allowed them to compete effectively at every level they`ve encountered so far. This financial strength leads to a significant question regarding any potential promotion.
Could Wrexham Survive in the Championship?
Let`s set aside for a moment the prospect of this team achieving yet another promotion and reaching the Premier League. Consecutive promotions from League One to the top flight have occurred – Ipswich Town managed it just last season – but teams achieving this are typically among the traditional powerhouses of English football. While Wrexham has cultivated a passionate global fanbase since their takeover, the Championship is a financially demanding league.
In League Two, Wrexham`s wage bill exceeded $14 million annually, a figure that has undoubtedly increased with the signing of players with Premier League experience like Jay Rodriguez and Matty James. Even with this higher spending, a wealthy promoted side might still find themselves spending only about a third of what the wealthiest Championship clubs allocate. Wrexham director Humphrey Ker has even indicated that the wage expenditure would need to quadruple to remain competitive after promotion.
Such significant investment might be particularly necessary because Wrexham`s underlying statistics don`t currently suggest a team fully prepared to challenge established Championship sides like Southampton or Leicester. Phil Parkinson`s team has outperformed their expected goals (xG), scoring 56 from 48.1 xG, and has conceded 32 goals from shots valued at 42.4 xG. Although they currently sit second in the League One table, when ranked by non-penalty xG difference, Wrexham is ninth.
These underlying numbers don`t necessarily inspire confidence regarding Wrexham`s potential for survival in the Championship should they achieve promotion. However, the club`s narrative since 2020 has been one of rising to the occasion when faced with significant challenges. If they do manage to climb out of League One, it`s likely that the increased revenue from being in the Championship will be heavily invested to ensure Wrexham can maintain their position in the division.
