Wrexham, the Welsh football club with a rich history, last played in the second tier of English football in 1982. Now, they are on the verge of potentially returning to that level as they navigate the final stretch of the League One season. However, their recent 2-2 draw against Cambridge United, a team fighting to avoid relegation, means their promotion destiny is not entirely in their own hands. This draw occurred on a night when their rivals missed an opportunity to give Wrexham control of the promotion race.
Currently positioned second in the league standings, Phil Parkinson`s team has six games remaining. Birmingham City leads the league and appears to be heading towards the Championship, holding an 11-point lead over Wrexham with two games in hand. The battle for the second automatic promotion spot is intensifying.
Wycombe Wanderers, despite taking 30 shots against Shrewsbury Town, who are at the bottom of the table, only managed a draw, meaning their promotion fate remains in their own hands. Meanwhile, Charlton Athletic and Stockport County both gained ground on Tuesday, setting up an exciting conclusion to the season on May 3rd.
League One Promotion Race Standings
| Team | Pld. | W | D | L | GD | Pts. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 38 | 27 | 8 | 3 | 39 | 89 |
| 2 | Wrexham | 40 | 23 | 9 | 8 | 24 | 78 |
| 3 | Wycombe | 39 | 21 | 12 | 6 | 29 | 75 |
| 4 | Charlton | 40 | 21 | 9 | 10 | 19 | 72 |
| 5 | Stockport | 40 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 22 | 71 |
| 6 | Bolton | 39 | 19 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 63 |
The top two teams in the league will secure automatic promotion to the Championship. Teams finishing third through sixth will compete in the playoffs, which consist of two-legged semi-finals and a final held at Wembley on May 25th.
Wrexham`s Upcoming Fixtures
- April 5: Burton Albion (Home)
- April 12: Wigan (Away)
- April 18: Bristol Rovers (Home)
- April 21: Blackpool (Away)
- April 26: Charlton (Home)
- May 3: Lincoln (Away)
What Wrexham Needs for Promotion
There`s no guaranteed path to a top-two finish for Wrexham. If Wycombe wins all of their remaining seven matches, even if Wrexham achieves a perfect record, they would be level on points. In this scenario, goal difference would be the deciding factor, and Wycombe currently holds a five-goal advantage, also having scored considerably more goals.
However, such a consistent winning streak is unlikely. The promotion race might hinge on crucial matches for both teams. On paper, Wrexham`s games against Burton Albion and Bristol Rovers should be winnable, given the significant points gap between the teams. However, at this stage of the season, facing teams fighting relegation can be particularly challenging.
Perhaps the most critical period for both Wycombe and Wrexham will be in late April. Charlton will play both Wycombe and Wrexham within five days. If Charlton, currently in fourth place, wins either of these matches, it could significantly shift the promotion race. Winning both would put Charlton firmly into contention.
Historical Context: Wrexham`s Rapid Ascent
If Wrexham succeeds in staying ahead of Wycombe and other contenders, they will achieve an impressive three promotions in three seasons. After a 15-year absence, they rejoined the English Football League in 2022-23 and immediately followed that with promotion from League Two as runners-up.
Several English football teams have achieved three consecutive promotions. Truro City and Shaw Lane even managed four. However, a rise through the highest levels of the English pyramid this quickly is unprecedented. For example, FC United of Manchester achieved three promotions after their formation in 2005, but this brought them to the Northern Premier League Premier Division, which is the seventh tier of English football.
Wrexham`s challenge is at a higher level, aiming for the second tier. The National League, League Two, and League One are composed of professional clubs. Wrexham, under the ownership of Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney, has had the financial strength to dominate at each level. This raises the question of their potential in the Championship.
Can Wrexham Compete in the Championship?
While the prospect of Premier League promotion might be in the distant future, even surviving in the Championship will be a significant challenge. While Ipswich Town achieved back-to-back promotions from League One to the Premier League last season, such feats are typically achieved by footballing giants. Wrexham, despite its growing global fanbase since the takeover, will find the Championship a financially demanding league.
In League Two, Wrexham`s wage bill exceeded $14 million annually, and this figure likely increased with the signings of players like Jay Rodriguez and Matty James. Despite increased spending, Wrexham`s expenditure might still be significantly less than the wealthiest Championship clubs. Director Humprey Ker suggested their salary expenditure might need to quadruple to remain competitive after promotion.
Underlying performance indicators suggest Wrexham might face challenges. They have scored 56 goals from 48.1 expected goals (xG) and conceded 32 goals from 42.4 xG against. While second in League One, they rank ninth based on non-penalty xG difference. This raises questions about their ability to secure promotion and then survive in the Championship.
However, Wrexham`s recent history demonstrates a club capable of rising to the occasion. If they achieve League One promotion, expect significant investment to ensure they can establish themselves in the Championship.
