Wrexham hasn`t competed in the second tier of English football since 1982, but they are now very close to achieving promotion. As the League One season nears its end, the Welsh club`s dream is within reach. However, after a 2-2 draw against Cambridge United, who are battling relegation, their promotion destiny is no longer solely in their hands. This happened on a night when their rivals missed an opportunity to give Wrexham control of the promotion race.
Phil Parkinson`s team currently holds the second position in the league table with six games remaining. Birmingham City leads the league and is pulling away towards the Championship, sitting 11 points ahead of Wrexham with two games in hand. The battle for the second automatic promotion spot is shaping up to be intense.
Wycombe Wanderers, despite taking 30 shots against Shrewsbury Town, who are at the bottom of the league, only managed a draw and a single point. Meanwhile, Charlton Athletic and Stockport County both gained ground on Tuesday, setting the stage for an exciting finish to the season on May 3rd.
League One Automatic Promotion Race
| Team | Pld. | W | D | L | GD | Pts. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 39 | 28 | 8 | 3 | 43 | 92 |
| 2 | Wrexham | 41 | 24 | 9 | 8 | 27 | 81 |
| 3 | Wycombe | 40 | 21 | 12 | 7 | 28 | 75 |
| 4 | Stockport | 41 | 21 | 11 | 9 | 24 | 74 |
| 5 | Charlton | 41 | 21 | 10 | 10 | 19 | 73 |
| 6 | Bolton | 40 | 20 | 6 | 14 | 5 | 66 |
The top two teams will automatically be promoted to the Championship. Teams finishing third through sixth will compete in playoffs, consisting of two-legged semi-finals and a final at Wembley on May 25th.
Wrexham`s Upcoming Fixtures
- April 5: Wrexham 3, Burton 0
- April 12: Wigan (Away)
- April 18: Bristol Rovers (Home)
- April 21: Blackpool (Away)
- April 26: Charlton (Home)
- May 3: Lincoln (Away)
What Wrexham Needs for Promotion
There`s no guaranteed path to a top-two finish for Wrexham. If Wycombe wins all of their remaining seven matches, Wrexham would need to match that winning streak just to tie on points. In that case, goal difference would be the deciding factor, where Wycombe currently has a five-goal advantage and has also scored more goals overall.
However, such a consistent winning run is unlikely. Promotion will likely depend on key matchups for both teams. Wrexham`s games against Burton Albion and Bristol Rovers should theoretically be easier, given their lower league positions. Yet, at this stage of the season, facing teams fighting to avoid relegation can be very challenging.
A potentially crucial period for both Wycombe and Wrexham is in late April. Charlton Athletic will play against both teams within five days, first at Wycombe and then at Wrexham. Results in these games could significantly impact the promotion race. If Charlton wins both, they could become strong contenders themselves.
Wrexham`s Rapid Ascent
If Wrexham manages to stay ahead of Wycombe and other contenders, they will achieve their third promotion in three seasons. They rejoined the English Football League in 2022-23 after a 15-year absence and immediately followed up with promotion from League Two, finishing second.
While other English teams like Truro City and Shaw Lane have achieved multiple consecutive promotions through lower leagues, Wrexham`s potential rise through the higher levels of the English pyramid is more remarkable. For example, FC United of Manchester climbed three tiers after their formation by Manchester United fans in 2005, but reached the Northern Premier League Premier Division, which is at level seven of the pyramid.
Wrexham`s challenge is at a higher level as they aim for the second tier. The 2022-23 National League and Leagues One and Two are all composed of professional clubs. Wrexham, under the ownership of Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney, has had the financial strength to compete at each level. This raises the question of their potential in the Championship.
Can Wrexham Compete in the Championship?
Consider the possibility of Wrexham achieving yet another promotion to the Premier League. Consecutive promotions from League One to the Premier League are rare, although Ipswich Town accomplished this recently. Typically, only major English clubs achieve this feat. Wrexham has gained a global fanbase since the takeover, but the Championship is a financially demanding league.
In League Two, Wrexham`s annual wage bill exceeded $14 million, and this figure has likely increased with the signings of players like Jay Rodriguez and Matty James. Despite potentially higher salaries, a promoted club like Wrexham might still spend significantly less than the wealthiest Championship clubs. Wrexham director Humprey Ker suggested their salary spending might need to quadruple to remain competitive after promotion.
This investment may be necessary because Wrexham`s performance metrics don`t definitively indicate Championship readiness. They have scored 56 goals from 48.1 expected goals (xG) and conceded 32 goals from 42.4 xG of shots faced. While second in League One, they rank ninth in non-penalty xG difference.
This raises concerns about their promotion chances and their ability to survive in the Championship. However, Wrexham has consistently risen to challenges since 2020. If they do achieve promotion from League One, expect significant investment to ensure their Championship survival.
