When the NBA playoffs shrink down to just four teams, the 26 teams no longer competing might naturally direct their focus elsewhere. After all, the 2024-25 championship is out of reach for them, and the league calendar is packed with other significant events like the draft, free agency, and management changes.
However, observing the conference finals still offers valuable insights. The examples set by the Oklahoma City Thunder, Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks, and Indiana Pacers provide numerous strategies worth adopting, given the NBA`s tendency for teams to emulate success.
Here are seven key lessons the eliminated teams should draw from watching the final four contenders:
Lesson No. 1: How High-Usage Guards Can Minimize Turnovers
Teams that could benefit: Detroit Pistons, Atlanta Hawks, Chicago Bulls, Portland Trail Blazers, Utah Jazz
Notably, among players with high assist rates this season, three of the conference finalists` point guards excelled at limiting turnovers: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder), Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers), and Jalen Brunson (Knicks). Their ability to lead their teams while protecting the ball is no coincidence.
Ball security is often underestimated but is critical because turnovers are doubly detrimental: they waste a scoring opportunity and give the opponent an easy chance to score. Data shows teams score significantly more points per possession after a steal compared to a typical offensive possession.
Consider the Pistons` first-round series against the Knicks. Cade Cunningham had a strong offensive showing, nearly matching Brunson`s assist numbers, but committed twice as many turnovers. This difference translated to several `lost` points per game for Detroit, potentially impacting the close outcomes of the series.
Players who handle the ball frequently but struggle with turnovers, like Cunningham and Trae Young, could learn significantly by studying how Gilgeous-Alexander, Haliburton, and Brunson navigate defenses and create plays without making costly mistakes. This analysis would also benefit promising young guards such as Josh Giddey, Scoot Henderson, and Isaiah Collier, whose turnover rates have been considerably higher.
Lesson No. 2: The Necessity of Reliable Rotational Depth
Teams that could benefit: Denver Nuggets, Los Angeles Lakers, Phoenix Suns, Milwaukee Bucks
While playoff rotations typically shorten with stars playing more minutes, this postseason has underscored the enduring importance of roster depth. The Pacers have consistently utilized a deep rotation, the Thunder maintained a sizable rotation for most of their run, and the Timberwolves` reserves are high-quality players.
In contrast, several teams eliminated earlier struggled with shallow rotations, most notably the Nuggets, whose bench couldn`t match opponents` depth or compensate for injuries. As reigning MVP Nikola Jokic noted after their elimination, teams with deeper benches appear to be the ones succeeding.
Beyond injury insurance, depth provides crucial lineup and tactical flexibility. Oklahoma City can switch between different team sizes and styles because they trust many players. Minnesota can rely on a veteran like Mike Conley Jr. or opt for more athleticism by substituting him.
This doesn`t diminish the role of superstars, but having multiple trustworthy options is vital. Teams with concentrated star power but limited supporting talent should take note and prioritize improving their depth during the offseason.
Lesson No. 3: Gauging the Openness of the Eastern Conference
Teams that could benefit: Cleveland Cavaliers, Bucks, Pistons, Orlando Magic, Miami Heat, Philadelphia 76ers, Toronto Raptors, Bulls (and essentially every other East team targeting contention)
The Eastern Conference landscape has been altered by injuries (like Jayson Tatum`s) and potential future financial constraints for leading teams like the Boston Celtics. After Boston`s recent dominance, the East appears more open for the upcoming season.
The current finalists, the Pacers and Knicks, are projected to be strong contenders again. However, if rival Eastern teams perceive them as less formidable than their current success suggests, they might be more aggressive in pursuing a “win-now” approach this offseason, aiming to capitalize on the potential power vacuum.
This evaluation could influence significant decisions: Will the Bucks keep Giannis Antetokounmpo? Will the Cavaliers stick with their core? Will the Magic make major moves around Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner? Could the Pistons accelerate their rebuild? Will the 76ers trade assets for immediate veteran help?
The extent of transactional activity in the East this summer may hinge on how other contenders analyze the performance and perceived strength of Indiana and New York in the conference finals.
Lesson No. 4: Strategies for Shielding Offensive Guards on Defense
Teams that could benefit: Cavaliers, Heat, Hawks, Charlotte Hornets, 76ers, Lakers, Memphis Grizzlies
A shared trait of the Pacers and Knicks is their ability to maintain respectable defenses despite having starting point guards who aren`t defensive specialists. While Tyrese Haliburton and Jalen Brunson aren`t lockdown defenders, their teams have built defensive schemes around versatile wings (like Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Pascal Siakam for Indiana; Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby for New York) capable of taking on tough assignments and rotating effectively to cover for weaker defenders.
Mastering this is crucial in the playoffs, where opponents actively seek out unfavorable individual matchups over a series. Data shows teams increasingly target guards in screen actions during the postseason.
Teams with dynamic but defensively challenged guards often struggle when their primary ball-handlers are targeted. As seen in the Cavaliers-Heat series, defensive weaknesses were explicitly exploited. The teams in that series had the worst defensive ratings in the rounds they participated in.
Many contending teams feature similar offensively gifted guards. Some, like Atlanta, are actively trying to surround Trae Young with versatile defenders. Other teams in this situation should closely study how the Knicks and Pacers utilize their personnel and defensive systems to protect their smaller guards and maintain solid team defense.
Lesson No. 5: Understanding When Fouling Is Beneficial
Teams that could benefit: Nuggets, Dallas Mavericks, Bulls, Bucks, Lakers
Among the 16 playoff teams, the four conference finalists rank towards the bottom in opponent free throw rate. They are not afraid to send opponents to the line more often than they get there themselves.
This suggests that while excessive fouling is detrimental, *insufficient* fouling can also be problematic. It often indicates a lack of necessary aggression, especially in the playoffs where officials tend to allow more physical contact. Sometimes, committing a foul is a worthwhile exchange if it prevents an easier scoring opportunity or forces a contested shot.
Teams with average or below-average defenses that also rank among the league`s least foul-prone could learn from the finalists` approach. Watching how these teams defend physically and maintain pressure, even after a whistle goes against them, highlights the strategic role of drawing the line between smart aggression and uncontrolled fouling.
Lesson No. 6: Identifying Ways to Challenge the Oklahoma City Thunder
Teams that could benefit: Any team aiming to win the Western Conference in the coming years
It`s highly likely this won`t be the Thunder`s last trip to the conference finals. With the youngest roster in the playoffs but already showing significant dominance, Oklahoma City is poised to be a top contender in the West for the foreseeable future, backed by substantial draft assets and a manageable salary cap.
Therefore, every other team in the conference should diligently analyze the strategies that prove effective against the Thunder, even if Oklahoma City ultimately prevails. For instance, the Nuggets` zone defense caused problems for OKC in their series, a tactic Minnesota is expected to employ as well.
Studying whether factors like dominant rim protection (potentially relevant for teams with players like Victor Wembanyama or Ivica Zubac) or powerful wing scoring (like Julius Randle, LeBron James, or Zion Williamson) truly trouble the Thunder will be crucial for future playoff matchups. While Oklahoma City appears remarkably well-rounded, finding even minor weaknesses is key.
Preventing another long-term dynasty requires a collective effort from rivals to study, innovate, and find ways to compete. This process starts now by observing the Thunder in the conference finals.
Lesson No. 7: Maximizing the Contribution of Non-Star Players
Teams that could benefit: All 26 other teams!
While the conference finalists feature numerous high draft picks and players acquired in major trades, a significant portion of their successful rotations consists of players obtained through lower-profile means or developed internally.
Consider Indiana, which reached the conference finals through smart trades involving stars but also found key pieces like Aaron Nesmith (a former lottery pick who struggled elsewhere before thriving with the Pacers) and Obi Toppin (who found a consistent role after struggling for minutes on his previous team). Both players blossomed after joining Indiana.
In the West, players like Naz Reid, Luguentz Dort, Alex Caruso, and Aaron Wiggins began their NBA careers on two-way contracts. Isaiah Joe was a waiver claim, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker bounced around before becoming a crucial two-way player for Minnesota. Isaiah Hartenstein, after struggling for consistent minutes early in his career, found success with the Clippers and Knicks before landing with Oklahoma City on his first significant contract.
These success stories highlight the importance of finding the “right situation” for players. While stars can often succeed anywhere, most players benefit greatly from an environment and role that maximize their strengths and minimize weaknesses. Teams should study how finalists like the Pacers utilize Toppin`s skill set or how the Thunder empower their less-heralded wings.
This lesson, coupled with the importance of depth, is particularly relevant in the current salary cap era. Finding valuable, low-cost contributors through developing overlooked players or rehabilitating draft picks is paramount, not just for contenders but also for rebuilding teams.
Teams like the Wizards, Jazz, and Nets, currently far from contention, can use their rebuilding years to develop the depth they hope will support future star players. Alex Caruso, for example, was picked up by the Lakers when they were struggling and later contributed to their championship before becoming a valuable player elsewhere.
Ultimately, while only four teams are competing for the 2024-25 championship, the other 26 teams have a significant opportunity to learn and adapt from the strategies and roster-building philosophies that brought these four teams this far.
