With the 2024-25 NBA regular season nearing its end, teams across the league are gearing up for what promises to be a thrilling postseason.
The Western Conference is particularly competitive this year, with seeds 3 through 8 fiercely contested. The difference between these teams is minimal, creating nightly shifts in the standings.
Keep an eye on the Minnesota Timberwolves, LA Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies, and Golden State Warriors. These teams are closely competing for the coveted No. 6 seed, which would allow them to bypass the play-in tournament.
While the Los Angeles Lakers are close to securing a top-six seed for the first time since 2020, the Phoenix Suns are in a precarious position, fighting to overtake the Sacramento Kings for a play-in tournament berth.
The drama in the Western Conference, including the future for Kevin Durant and who Stephen Curry and the Warriors hope to avoid in the first round, might extend until the regular season`s final day on Sunday.
Here’s what NBA insiders Michael C. Wright, Brian Windhorst, Dave McMenamin, Ohm Youngmisuk, Tim MacMahon, Kevin Pelton, and Zach Kram are saying about the unpredictable West.
Ja Morant and the Grizzlies: Navigating Playoffs with an Interim Coach
Memphis recently achieved their first victory under interim coach Tuomas Iisalo, highlighted by a buzzer-beater from Morant in Miami. With the playoffs approaching rapidly, the Grizzlies are focused on integrating Iisalo`s strategies to maximize their postseason performance. While Iisalo aims to emphasize Morant`s offensive role, the team needs to balance this with the contributions of Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane. Despite internal expectations being tempered by GM Zach Kleiman`s focus on “clarity of direction,” a strong playoff showing could stabilize the team and Morant`s relationship after Taylor Jenkins` unexpected dismissal. — Michael C. Wright
The Biggest Threat to the Oklahoma City Thunder in the West?
The Denver Nuggets, reigning NBA champions (2023), pose the most significant upset potential against an Oklahoma City Thunder team poised to lead the league in point differential. Nikola Jokic presents a formidable challenge, even for teams with strong rim protection like the Thunder. Jokic demonstrated this in a March game against Oklahoma City, posting impressive stats in a Nuggets victory that leveled their regular-season series at 2-2. Denver will need consistent high-level play from Jamal Murray to overcome Oklahoma City, especially against the Thunder`s top-ranked defense led by Lu Dort. — Tim MacMahon
Suns` Future if They Miss the Play-In Tournament
For the Phoenix Suns, missing the playoffs with a massive payroll could lead to significant changes. The challenge is compounded by Bradley Beal`s no-trade clause and Kevin Durant`s potential trade value as he approaches 37. While the Suns might prefer to keep Durant, his trade could be a path to financial flexibility. Talks about trading Durant occurred around the trade deadline, suggesting potential action in the summer. A key factor is the return the Suns seek for Durant, balancing a desire for a substantial package with the need for financial relief. The Clippers` decision to prioritize flexibility by letting go of Paul George might serve as a case study for the Suns. — Brian Windhorst
Lakers` Path to an NBA Finals Contention
For the Lakers to make a deep playoff run, favorable matchups are crucial. With the regular season winding down, their seeding could range from No. 3 to No. 8. Avoiding the play-in and securing at least the No. 6 seed would give them valuable rest and recovery time for key players like LeBron James and Luka Doncic. A top-four finish would grant them home-court advantage in the first round. Coach JJ Redick emphasized the importance of home court advantage and the benefit of rest. Matchup-wise, the Grizzlies might be a preferred first-round opponent, given the Lakers` past success against them. However, facing Denver early or the Clippers for a local rivalry series could also be advantageous. If the Lakers reach the No. 3 seed and avoid Oklahoma City until the conference finals, they could build momentum through challenging series. — Dave McMenamin
The Team the Warriors Should Avoid in Round One:
Oklahoma City. Falling into the play-in tournament after striving for the sixth seed would be a setback for the Warriors. Dropping below sixth would cost them crucial rest before the playoffs. A play-in scenario could lead to a first-round matchup against the young and energetic Thunder, a tough prospect for veterans like Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Jimmy Butler III. While the Warriors are confident against any opponent with their championship core and Butler`s addition, the Thunder present a particularly challenging matchup. Containing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and dealing with rising stars Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams will be key. The Thunder`s strong defense, featuring Lu Dort and Alex Caruso, can disrupt Curry, and their size inside could trouble the Warriors. Despite Curry`s confidence in beating any team, avoiding the top-seeded Thunder in the first round is preferable for preparation and rest. — Ohm Youngmisuk
Timberwolves` Late-Season Improvement: Sustainable?
Minnesota`s defense has been consistently strong all season, but their offense has significantly improved recently. After ranking 13th in offensive rating in February, they`ve jumped to third-best in March, trailing only the Clippers and Celtics. This surge is largely due to improved shooting from Mike Conley and Donte DiVincenzo, along with contributions from Jaden McDaniels and Julius Randle, providing spacing for Anthony Edwards.
However, expecting role players to maintain such high shooting percentages is unrealistic. The Timberwolves` favorable schedule in March, with many games against sub-.500 teams, also contributed to their success. While they are currently performing better, sustaining this offensive peak throughout the playoffs remains to be seen. — Zach Kram
Projected First-Round Matchups in the West
Western Conference playoff teams face uncertainty in scouting first-round opponents. Unlike the Eastern Conference with clearer potential matchups, only Oklahoma City`s top seed is relatively certain in the West. ESPN`s Basketball Power Index simulations show no single Western series occurring in more than 27% of scenarios.
Even the most probable series, Grizzlies versus Rockets, might not be confirmed until after the play-in tournament, as Houston would likely face the play-in winner as the No. 2 seed. — Kevin Pelton
