The second round of the PGA Championship has concluded. Discussions about course conditions seemed less prominent than on the first day, while many competitors adjusted their standing and the leaderboard maintained its reputation as one of the most unpredictable in recent memory.
Some unexpected names near the top after Thursday didn`t manage to sustain their performance. However, 40-year-old Jhonattan Vegas remained consistent and now holds the leading position going into the weekend. A significant development was world number one Scottie Scheffler`s 3-under round, positioning him strongly for a potential third major championship title.
Scheffler commented on his position, saying, “Primarily, I`m just pleased to be close to the front. In a 72-hole golf tournament, there will inevitably be moments and periods where your swing isn`t at its best. Over the duration of such a long tournament on a major championship course, you`re bound to encounter difficulties. It`s how you react to those that matters. I believe I handled my errors well today and kept myself in contention.”
Moreover, Scheffler is right where he began the tournament: the favorite to lift the Wanamaker Trophy.
Here`s what to anticipate over the next two days.
Jhonattan Vegas leads at the halfway point. What are his prospects for winning?
Schlabach: While maybe not a fan favorite for a major victory, `Johnny Vegas` has a fascinating journey. He was a top junior golfer in Venezuela before moving to Houston in 2004 after Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez reportedly threatened to repurpose urban golf courses for public housing.
Upon his arrival in the U.S., he reportedly knew very little English and had well-used equipment. He developed his game sufficiently to earn a scholarship to the University of Texas. After turning professional, he spent two years on the Korn Ferry Tour before achieving his first PGA Tour win at the Bob Hope Classic in 2011. Vegas has since added three more victories, his most recent being the 3M Open in July.
Vegas mentioned difficulty sleeping before Friday`s round after a late finish the previous day. Likely, sleeping on his first lead in a major didn`t make it easier. He`ll face the same situation again, holding a 2-shot cushion before the third round. His last made cut in a major was a tie for 57th at the 2021 U.S. Open. This event marks only his third appearance in the four major championships since then.
A double-bogey on the final hole somewhat marred an otherwise solid second round for Vegas. He finished with a 1-under 70, securing a two-stroke lead as he left the course. After gaining significant strokes putting in the first round, his performance cooled considerably in the second, losing almost a stroke. However, his ball-striking from tee to green remained excellent.
I would be highly surprised if Vegas maintains this lead throughout the weekend to win the PGA Championship.
Uggetti: According to Data Golf, Vegas has a 9.4% probability of winning. This indicates that even with a two-stroke lead heading into the weekend, he`s considered only the second favorite. Scottie Scheffler, with a 23.4% chance (three shots back), and Bryson DeChambeau, with a 9% chance (five shots back), complete the top three contenders.
Vegas`s ability not only to remain in contention during the second round but also shoot under par and retain his lead is commendable. However, if I were assessing his actual winning chances, I would estimate them closer to 5% or even lower.
“I feel my game is very complete, but I haven`t managed to execute everything together in a major yet,” Vegas stated on Friday. “I believe I`ve been sufficiently patient not to let my struggles in majors discourage me. It`s simply something where you must continue learning about yourself and what`s required to perform well here. Unfortunately, it`s taking me a bit longer than usual, but I`m grateful to be in this position now.”
As Mark noted, it would be a remarkable story. However, if Vegas lifts the Wanamaker Trophy on Sunday, it would be one of the most improbable major victories we`ve witnessed since Jimmy Walker won the PGA in 2017, perhaps even more so.
Which player(s) currently outside the top 10 do you think could still triumph?
Schlabach: I initially picked DeChambeau to win, and he`s still within striking distance at 3 under par. The LIV Golf player rebounded from an even-par 71 in the first round with a 3-under 68 on Friday. He`s tied for 17th place, five strokes behind the leader, Vegas.
DeChambeau is hitting the ball a considerable distance at Quail Hollow, leading the field in driving distance (331.6 yards) and strokes gained off the tee. Predictably, his putting has been strong. However, DeChambeau`s iron play remains somewhat inconsistent, similar to his performance at the Masters, and he`s dissatisfied with his chipping (losing nearly two strokes on Thursday, improving slightly on Friday).
“You need exceptional precision with your irons this week, and we all know how good my wedges are, so that presents a bit more of a challenge for me,” DeChambeau remarked. “But that`s fine.
“It`s a great test. I just need my putting to be a bit more consistent and keep playing as I am. I could easily be 7 or 8 under right now, or even par. So, I`ll keep moving forward, and I believe a round of 65 or 64 is achievable out there. I nearly shot that today and definitely saw the possibility, but I didn`t quite execute it.”
Uggetti: There are many prominent names lurking outside the top 10, and with the tournament still appearing relatively open, anyone could potentially make a run.
Nevertheless, even on a course like Quail Hollow, I anticipate the leading players will continue to separate themselves. Despite recent difficulties in some major championships, perhaps no one is better at rising to the occasion than Jon Rahm. The Spaniard has played two understated but very solid rounds and sits at 2 under par, six shots behind Vegas, entering the weekend.
“I think I`m in a favorable position,” Rahm commented. “Added to that is the feeling that I`m improving and becoming more confident with my swing. I hit many quality shots today and created numerous scoring chances.”
Much of the conversation surrounding Rahm in majors since his 2023 Masters victory has focused on his inability to contend. However, it`s easy to forget that back then, he was arguably one of the game`s most consistent and dominant players. He continues to secure top-10 finishes on the LIV circuit, however one chooses to evaluate those, and it wouldn`t surprise me to see him challenge for the lead this weekend. He could certainly use a strong performance.
How many shots back is considered too far to remain in contention?
Uggetti: Is it excessive to suggest that anyone who made the cut could potentially make a charge? Probably, but this course setup, like many past PGA Championships, has kept the contenders relatively close. Even with Vegas at 8 under, players such as Collin Morikawa (even par) and Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele (1 over) possess the capability to shoot very low scores and challenge. In my view, the true favorite at the moment is Scheffler at 5 under, but that also relies on Scheffler faltering, which seems unlikely. Players like Morikawa, Schauffele, and McIlroy would likely need rounds in the mid-to-low 60s to have a realistic chance, though it`s not impossible.
A more sensible perspective is that being 1 under par is probably too far behind. Being four shots back of Scheffler and seven shots behind the overall leader presents a formidable challenge.
Who is your current pick heading into the weekend?
Schlabach: I selected Scottie after the first round, and he improved by one stroke on Friday with a 3-under 68, placing him in a tie for fifth. He showed improvement in most statistical categories in the second round, except for driving accuracy (hitting six of 14 fairways).
“I like the position I`m in for the weekend,” Scheffler commented. “Naturally, I wish I was slightly higher on the leaderboard. I feel I maximized my performance over the past couple of days. I felt my swing improved as the round progressed, and I managed to hit some crucial shots late to create opportunities. I`m looking forward to the weekend.”
Matt Fitzpatrick, the 2022 U.S. Open champion, is the only other player in the top 10 who has previously won a major championship. It seems improbable that Vegas, Matthieu Pavon, Michael Thorbjornsen, Alex Smalley, and Sam Stevens could hold off Scheffler if he makes a charge.
Uggetti: Scheffler feels like the inevitable winner, especially considering he hasn`t yet produced a round truly reflective of the undisputed world number one. However, a part of me keeps gravitating towards Bryson. He has been far from perfect this week, and his approach game clearly needs work (ranking 77th in the field), but it feels like he`s due for a round where everything falls into place. His driving remains an incredible asset; he just needs to find the fairway more consistently to have a chance.
Which player who missed the cut was the biggest disappointment?
Schlabach: There are several valid candidates, as many top-ranked players, including Justin Thomas (3 over), Hideki Matsuyama (3 over), Ludvig Åberg (3 over), Justin Rose (9 over), and Russell Henley (10 over) won`t be playing at Quail Hollow over the weekend.
I would likely choose JT because I thought he had a genuine opportunity to perform well this week. He won the RBC Heritage three weeks prior and secured his first major title at the 2017 PGA Championship, also held at Quail Hollow.
Thomas hit only 13 of 28 fairways (just 4 of 14 in the opening round) and 16 of 36 greens. He carded nine birdies but made too many errors.
Uggetti: I`ll pick Aberg. His recent form had been inconsistent, but Quail Hollow seemed well-suited to his playing style. Instead, he finished ranked 145th in strokes gained: driving and 86th in approach shots. While the sample size is small and expectations might be too high too quickly, this is now Aberg`s second missed cut in two PGA Championship appearances.
