David J., a professional sports bettor, spends his nights watching computer updates of game scores instead of the live games. He trusts his betting strategies and doesn`t stress much about outcomes. Sometimes, he even plays online poker while waiting for his sports bets to be settled. But December 2, 2024, was different.
In Minnesota, the Los Angeles Lakers were losing to the Timberwolves by 15 points in the fourth quarter. More importantly for David J., LeBron James was having one of his lowest-scoring games in years. In his basement in Iowa, David J. decided to watch the game.
Earlier in the season, he noticed that FanDuel offered bets on whether James would score at least 10 points in a game. He thought, `It`s LeBron James; he’ll definitely score 10.` He started betting on this, even with the odds not being very rewarding. In December, he decided to make it public, announcing he was risking thousands to win just a few hundred if James scored at least 10 points.
On December 1, a screenshot of his bet—$10,125 at -1800 odds to win $562 on James getting double digits against the Utah Jazz—went viral, getting 3.3 million views on social media. He boasted to his friends and argued with people online who questioned his strategy of betting big to win small. He made sure to highlight his win when the bet succeeded in the second quarter.
`I was just laughing at everyone calling me an idiot, which might be true,` David J. admitted. `I know it sounds silly, but it was cool getting so much attention. It was fun.`
The next night, December 2, was much more tense. James, who had scored at least 10 points in every game since 2007, only had seven points with 12 minutes left against the Timberwolves. It was possible James might leave the game early, ending his record streak. David J. was worried about his $9,000 bet and the potential backlash if fans blamed him for jinxing the streak.
`It would have been incredibly embarrassing. I thought LeBron fans would come after me if I lost the bet and the streak ended. I was really nervous,` he said, laughing. `It was exciting, but I was also terrified.`
With 11:24 remaining, James made a layup and then a free throw two minutes later, reaching 10 points before leaving the game with seven minutes left and the Lakers down by 25. David J. was relieved. He avoided online criticism and won $562.50.
The LeBron 10-Point Bet Market Gains Popularity
This high-stakes bet, like a version of `The Price is Right` featuring LeBron James, often sees large sums of money wagered, with professional bettors taking opposite sides.
FanDuel stopped offering this bet per game in mid-December, instead offering odds on James continuing his streak for the rest of the season. According to FanDuel, James was heavily favored at -6000 to score at least 10 points in the remaining games before a groin injury on March 8 against the Boston Celtics. He scored 22 points before leaving that game.
With sportsbooks no longer taking bets on a game-by-game basis, the betting has moved to peer-to-peer sites like ProphetX, where users trade sports outcomes using virtual currency instead of betting against a sportsbook.
Jake Benzaquen, co-founder of ProphetX, mentioned they`ve seen significant trading volume most nights, involving many customers, from big players betting `Yes` due to the -5000 odds, to smaller players betting `No` at long odds like 50-1 or higher.
David J. claims to be up about $42,000 betting `yes` on James this season. His biggest single bet was on Christmas Day, risking $74,275 at odds as low as -7000 for James to score at least 10 points against the Golden State Warriors.
During that game, he posted online, `HE MIGHT CASH FIRST QUARTER. YOU GUYS ARE SO STUPID.`
He won $1,250 by the second quarter when James scored his 10th point with a 3-pointer.
The Other Side: Betting Against LeBron
Chris D., a hedge fund analyst and experienced bettor in his mid-20s, has bet against David J.`s bets. He believes the hype around the streak has made the odds too high and has bet against James scoring 10 points in some games this season.
`I’ve lost over $10,000 on it,` Chris D. stated.
He argues there`s value in betting against the streak when odds are 65-1 or longer, believing the real chance of James not scoring 10 points is about 2%, or 50-1. He used AI to analyze NBA player injury history, considering James` age (40) but also his resilience, and focused on how much James cares about keeping the streak going.
`This is where I differ from most,` Chris D. explained. `I think LeBron wants the streak to continue, but he already holds the record. I don’t think it’s as important to him anymore. It’s not as certain as people think.`
`I’m not a LeBron hater,` he added. `For me, it’s about the price.`
David J. disagrees, believing James is highly motivated to maintain the streak. He thinks the real odds of James scoring under 10 points are less than 1%, closer to 120-1. Statistically, James has scored fewer than 10 points in only 8 out of 1,550 regular-season games, about 0.52%.
Both bettors agree they are essentially betting on the chance of James getting injured early in a game. On March 20, 2021, James hurt his ankle early in a game against the Atlanta Hawks. With seven points at the time, he stayed in for one more play, made a 3-pointer to reach 10 points, and then left the game, missing the next 17 games due to the injury.
James returned from a groin injury on Saturday in a loss to the Chicago Bulls, scoring 17 points, giving David J. another win.
`If he gets to eight points, he’s going to get to 10,` David J. says. `He’ll get a basket.` David J. has improved his betting setup since those nights in Iowa. He now bets from Arizona. He notes that the betting volume for the James 10-point bet has increased since he started sharing his bets online, but so have the odds.
`You can still bet a lot most game days,` he said. `You just have to do it at higher prices.`
Even with odds as high as -7000, meaning risking $7,000 to win $100, David J. believes it’s worthwhile and plans to keep betting on James as much as possible.
`It’s good to be on the side of minus-7000,` he said. `Even if it’s a bad bet, there’s a good chance I can prove the doubters wrong.`
