The two-year marathon that is the FIDE Women`s Events cycle is rapidly concluding. While seven of the eight coveted spots in the 2026 Women’s Candidates Tournament have been secured—thanks to dominant performances in the Grand Swiss and other qualifying pathways—a single, highly contested seat remains vacant. This eighth spot will be awarded to the player who accumulates the highest total points in the comprehensive two-year series, provided they have not already qualified.
The race for this final berth has transformed into a high-stakes sprint, culminating in the upcoming Women`s Rapid and Blitz Championships. For those leading the charge, this is not just an opportunity for a major title; it is a desperate attempt to avoid spending another four years waiting for a chance at the World Championship cycle. The pressure is immense, the field is dense, and the fastest time controls will be the ultimate arbiter.
The Frontrunner: A Blitz Specialist`s Advantage
Currently leading the pack for the final points qualification is the young Kazakh star, Bibisara Assaubayeva, with a commanding 99.4 points. Assaubayeva`s position is not merely stable; it is strategically advantageous. A two-time World Women`s Blitz Champion, she enters the decisive Rapid and Blitz events with a significant psychological and technical edge.
The weighting of points in the upcoming final events favors those who excel in fast chess, meaning Assaubayeva controls her own destiny. While her lead is substantial, the inherent volatility of blitz chess ensures that nothing is guaranteed. She must merely maintain the level of dominance for which she is known; easier said than done when the stakes are this high.
The Wolf Pack: A Quartet of Dangerous Chasers
A group of seasoned veterans and rising talents are positioned just behind Assaubayeva, all within striking distance if the leader falters. These players must not only perform exceptionally well but also hope for a relative dip in Assaubayeva’s performance:
- Song Yuxin and Anna Muzychuk (80 points each): Tied for second, these two require a massive influx of points. Muzychuk, a former World Rapid Champion, certainly possesses the capability to close the gap swiftly.
- Lei Tingjie (62 points): The winner of the 2022–23 Women’s Candidates, Lei is a proven big-match player. However, she faces a steep numerical challenge, needing a near-perfect result in Qatar to secure the spot via the points pathway.
- Harika Dronavalli (58.5 points): An experienced Grandmaster, Harika needs to deliver one of her best rapid and blitz performances in years. Her consistency is legendary, but consistency alone may not be enough to catch a frontrunner like Assaubayeva in a sprint finish.
For these contenders, the calculation is simple yet brutal: securing the final spot likely means winning or placing extremely high in the championships. Second-place finishes will not suffice if Assaubayeva performs to her rating expectation.
The Mathematical Miracles and Dark Horses
Further down the standings lurks a fascinating mix of former champions and young hopefuls who retain a mathematical chance, assuming the top five players all encounter significant misfortune. This list includes former Women’s World Champion Alexandra Kosteniuk (38.5 points), Mariya Muzychuk (26.40), and veterans like Nana Dzagnidze and Irina Krush (both on 25 and 20 points, respectively).
For these athletes, qualifying through the series points would require an outcome so precise and serendipitous that it borders on the miraculous. However, given the immense number of points available at the final rapid and blitz events, and the chaotic nature of those time controls, dismissing anyone entirely would be an act of strategic naiveté. If there is one thing fast chess guarantees, it is unpredictability.
The Final Verdict: A Test of Nerve
The stage is set for a dramatic climax. The FIDE Women’s Rapid and Blitz Championships are not merely end-of-season tournaments; they are the final, high-pressure gateway to the highest level of women`s chess. This battle is less about deep theoretical preparation and more about sheer nerve, psychological resilience, and the ability to execute under the most crushing time constraints.
Will Assaubayeva leverage her proficiency in the quick formats to consolidate her lead, or will one of the experienced chasers mount a late, decisive surge? The answer awaits us in the coming months, providing a spectacular close to an already intense qualification cycle.
