Statistical Vulnerabilities for 2025 NBA Playoff Contenders

Area of Concern: 3-Point Percentage (31.8%, 30th)

Significance: In the modern NBA, a team`s 3-point shooting accuracy is a critical indicator of Finals potential. The 2024-25 season saw a record 42.2% of shots taken from beyond the arc. Orlando, ranking 18th in 3-point attempt frequency and last in accuracy (31.8%), appears out of step with this trend. Key players like Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner lack a strong perimeter game, and even the team`s most frequent deep shooters were below the league average. Notably, not a single player in Orlando`s top 10 for minutes played shot above average from deep during the regular season.

Potential Offset: Opponent Block Rate (8.7%, 10th). The Magic are challenging to deter at the basket, a useful attribute in the playoffs against dominant shot-blockers.

Area of Concern: 2-Point Percentage (51.8%, 27th)

Significance: While 3-point shooting is crucial, historical playoff data suggests that making shots inside the arc can be equally, if not more, important for reaching the Finals. This is problematic for the Rockets, who are not a strong shooting team overall. They finished below average in 3-point accuracy and frequency and were one of the NBA`s worst 2-point shooting teams in the regular season. Three of their top five scorers (Jalen Green, Fred VanVleet, and Dillon Brooks) shot 48% or worse from inside the arc. Although their league-leading rebounding rate helps mitigate this, teams heavily reliant on offensive rebounds have not historically fared well in reaching the Finals in recent years.

Potential Offset: WAR of Best Player (Amen Thompson at 8.8, 8th). This metric highlights the immense value of top players in the postseason. Although Thompson doesn`t have the high usage rate of typical superstars, he stands out as one of the best two-way players among the playoff contenders.

Area of Concern: 3-Point Attempt Rate (35.6% of FGA, 30th)

Significance: Unlike Orlando, Denver is a proficient 3-point shooting team, ranking fifth best this regular season at 37.6%. However, their offense primarily focuses on scoring inside or drawing fouls, often facilitated by Nikola Jokić. While effective, particularly with Jokić, only one of their top seven minute-earners (Michael Porter Jr.) attempted 3s at a rate higher than the league average, making the deep shot a supplementary option rather than a core strategy. Recent postseasons have shown that contenders typically incorporate a consistent volume of 3-pointers in their shot selection; teams with above-average 3-point attempt rates have tended to advance further, even when accounting for their accuracy. The trend didn`t change under the new coach; their 3-point attempt rate decreased in the final games.

Potential Offset: WAR of Best Player (Jokić at 17.9, 1st). Having a player of Jokić`s caliber, fresh off one of his finest seasons (even by his three-time MVP standards), can compensate for most, if not all, team weaknesses.

Area of Concern: Team Free Throw Rate (27.1 FTAs per 100 FGA, 1st)

Significance: This category highlights a seemingly positive statistic – frequently getting to the free throw line – that can paradoxically become a liability in the playoffs. Teams that heavily rely on free throws can thrive in the regular season when officiating is less permissive. However, as whistles become less frequent in the postseason (FTA per 100 FGA has declined in the last two playoffs), this strength can diminish. The Lakers serve as a magnified example, with their highest-usage players – Luka Dončić, LeBron James, and Austin Reaves – all drawing fouls at an above-average rate. Dončić and Reaves, in particular, rank among the league`s most frequent foul-drawers.

Potential Offset: Previous Playoff Experience (2183.8 minutes per player, weighted by 2024-25 minutes, 2nd). A consistent lesson of the NBA playoffs is the value of prior experience. Only the Boston Celtics have more collective playoff minutes on their roster than the Lakers.

Area of Concern: 2-Point Percentage (52.8%, 23rd)

Significance: While not as severe as Houston`s issue, Golden State`s finishing inside the arc is a moderate concern. They are not a top-tier finishing team and struggled significantly in the mid-range this regular season. Although mid-range shots aren`t a major part of their strategy, having more reliable conversion rates closer to the basket would benefit a team that ranked 15th in offensive efficiency. Neither Stephen Curry nor Jimmy Butler III made their 2-pointers at a league-average rate this season; in fact, none of the Warriors` top nine players by minutes played finished at or above the NBA average for 2-point percentage.

Potential Offset: Previous Playoff Experience (1960.6 minutes per player, weighted by 2024-25 minutes, 3rd). Like the Lakers, the Warriors boast extensive prior postseason experience, further boosted by the midseason addition of Jimmy Butler, a two-time NBA finalist.

Area of Concern: Free Throw Attempt Rate (26.8 FTA per 100 FGA, 3rd)

Significance: As noted earlier, a high reliance on free throws can be problematic for contenders in the playoffs when calls tend to decrease. The Bucks are partly responsible for this trend in the playoff data. Giannis Antetokounmpo ranked third in free throw rate this regular season, ensuring the Bucks are consistently one of the teams most effective at drawing fouls. While Antetokounmpo`s free throw percentage has sometimes been an issue in the postseason, his rate of trips to the line has also tended to drop relative to the league average. The same applies to Damian Lillard. Their combined ability to draw fouls significantly contributed to Milwaukee`s high regular-season FTA rate.

Potential Offset: WAR of Best Player (Antetokounmpo at 12.5, 3rd). Despite potential free throw concerns, the 2021 NBA champion is such a dominant force that his capability to carry the Bucks deep into the playoffs is undeniable.

Area of Concern: Opponent FT Rate (27.6 FTA per 100 FGA, 27th)

Significance: While free-throw-heavy offenses may struggle in the playoffs, the reverse holds true for teams that frequently foul opponents. Teams sending opponents to the line more often historically reach the Finals significantly less than teams more disciplined defensively. One possible explanation is that slower, half-court-focused playoff games magnify the impact of every possession, making giving away free points particularly costly. Teams might also have greater control over their own fouling rate than their success in drawing fouls offensively. Regardless, the Pistons sent opponents to the line frequently this season. While rim protection was a strength due to their shot-blocking, Isaiah Stewart, Ausar Thompson, and Jalen Duren were among the league`s most frequent foulers.

Potential Offset: Two-Point Percentage (55.0%, 16th). The Pistons receive credit here despite being middle-of-the-pack, due to the predictive weight of this statistic for Finals teams. The same Detroit trio known for fouling also posted solid 2-point shooting numbers this season.

Area of Concern: Opponent FT Rate (27.2 FTA per 100 FGA, 26th)

Significance: The Thunder`s most apparent weakness – their youth and relative lack of playoff experience – has improved from last year, placing them in a similar position to Detroit regarding foul tendencies. OKC was highly active defensively, leading the league in steals per 100 possessions (10.3) and ranking second in blocks (5.7), even with prolific shot-blocker Chet Holmgren missing significant time. Their fouling is the flip side of this aggressive defensive approach, which contributes to their excellent defensive metrics elsewhere. Nevertheless, if a weakness must be found for a team that won 68 games and posted a net rating (+12.8) second only to the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls in the post-merger era, their opponent free throw rate is it.

Potential Offset: WAR of Best Player (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at 17.8, 2nd). By any measure, Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokić were the standout players this season, and SGA is the likely MVP winner. Players of this caliber reach the Finals at a disproportionately high rate.

Area of Concern: Opponent FT Rate (26.7 FTA per 100 FGA, 25th)

Significance: Concluding the group of foul-prone teams are the Grizzlies, who, like the Thunder, ranked high in block and steal rates, fueling a top-10 defense. Achieving such disruption from players like Zach Edey, Scotty Pippen Jr., Jaren Jackson Jr., and Brandon Clarke (out for the year) likely involves sending opponents to the free throw line at times. However, the Grizzlies fit the profile of a team whose defensive style might not be optimally suited for a sustained playoff run.

Potential Offset: Two-Point Percentage (55.6%, 9th). Memphis is a competent shooting team inside the arc, with eight of their top 13 players converting at or above the league-average 2P%, and the rest all within 5% of the average.

Area of Concern: 3-Point Attempt Rate (38.2% of FGA, 28th)

Significance: Similar to Denver, the Knicks are effective when they do shoot 3s, hitting 36.9% during the regular season (eighth best). However, the 3-point shot is not a prominent feature in the shot profiles of most of their frequently used players, with the exception of Miles McBride (57% of shots from outside). Many Knicks players rely on scoring inside, whether through Karl-Anthony Towns` interior skills or Jalen Brunson`s ability to attack the basket off the dribble. However, opponents have shown an ability to analyze and counter New York`s primary offensive actions, which can become a significant challenge in a seven-game series.

Potential Offset: Two-Point Percentage (55.8%, 8th). The upside to the Knicks` lower reliance on 3s is their efficiency in converting 2s, taking them at the league`s fourth-highest rate per 100 possessions. Josh Hart`s nearly 62% conversion rate on 2-pointers is remarkable for a versatile forward.

Area of Concern: 3-Point Attempt Rate (38.7% of FGA, 25th)

Significance: It`s somewhat surprising that a team featuring James Harden as a leading scorer would be among the least dependent on 3-pointers. However, the Clippers` shot distribution among rotation players is varied: some shoot more 3s than average (Harden, Norman Powell, Kris Dunn, etc.), others shoot significantly fewer (Kawhi Leonard, Ivica Zubac, Derrick Jones Jr.), and only Nicolas Batum takes a vastly higher proportion of 3s (85% of his shots). The Clippers may have the capacity to increase their 3-point volume more than other teams in this category, but it remains an area to watch.

Potential Offset: Previous Playoff Experience (1820.7 minutes per player, weighted by 2024-25 minutes, 4th). A significant portion of this experience comes from Harden and Leonard, but Batum and Powell also contribute valuable postseason minutes.

Area of Concern: 2-Point Percentage (53.8%, 20th)

Significance: Several broader factors make a deep Finals run unlikely for the Heat, most notably their first-round opponent as the first-ever 10-seed to emerge from the Play-In Tournament: the 64-win Cleveland Cavaliers. However, the Heat`s relatively weak 2-point conversion rate is another factor. This is perhaps best illustrated by the unusual trajectory of Bam Adebayo`s 2-point shooting, which dropped from a strong 56.5% inside the arc in his first five seasons to just 53.1% since – a decline from 8% above league average to 3% below.

Area of Concern: 3-Point Attempt Rate (40.0% of FGA, 21st)

Significance: The Pacers` identity is strongly linked to Tyrese Haliburton, one of the league`s most prolific 3-point shooters among high-volume scorers. However, this masks the fact that Indiana as a team does not heavily rely on perimeter shooting volume. Beyond Haliburton, none of their top seven players by minutes attempted a significantly above-average share of shots from 3-point range, while Pascal Siakam, Bennedict Mathurin, Andrew Nembhard, and T.J. McConnell were well below the league average. Despite a lower volume of 3s, Indiana still ranked ninth in offensive rating, so this issue might not be critical. However, they are somewhat easier to defend from the perimeter compared to other teams in their tier of title contention.

Area of Concern: Opponent Assist Rate (opponents assist on 59.6% of made FGs, 29th)

Significance: The fact that a relatively minor category represents the Celtics` most significant statistical red flag based on Finals prediction tendencies is revealing. Boston performed positively relative to the league average in most key metrics this season, particularly those most crucial in the playoffs. This required searching for less obvious weaknesses. That said, it`s peculiar that teams allowing fewer assists – typically indicating disruption of ball movement, which Boston excels at due to their numerous strong perimeter defenders – have historically performed worse in the playoffs.

Area of Concern: Free Throw Attempt Rate (24.9 FTA per 100 FGA, 10th)

Significance: Led by Anthony Edwards, Julius Randle, and Rudy Gobert, the Timberwolves have been effective at getting to the free throw line this season, despite ranking 25th in 2-point attempts per 100 possessions (2-pointers are far more likely to draw fouls than 3-pointers). This tendency does create a potential vulnerability if they don`t receive expected calls in the playoffs. However, it`s worth noting that each of the Wolves` top five scorers last season (Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns, Naz Reid, Mike Conley, Gobert) saw their FTA rate in the Western Conference Finals loss to Dallas equal or exceed their regular-season rate. Clearly, a lack of calls was not their primary issue in that series.

Area of Concern: Playoff Experience (657.6 minutes per player, weighted by 2024-25 minutes, 15th)

Significance: Having previous experience on the biggest stage matters in the playoffs. The Cavaliers do have players with prior experience, notably Donovan Mitchell (2,032 previous postseason minutes) and Max Strus (1,611) among their rotation. (Tristan Thompson`s 2,616 previous minutes may be less impactful if he doesn`t play significantly.) However, while the team`s average of around 658 weighted minutes is higher than Oklahoma City`s remarkably low number last season, it`s still below average historically. Teams averaging between 500 and 1,000 previous postseason minutes tend to win slightly fewer playoff games than their regular-season performance would predict. This makes it a minor, but present, concern for Cleveland.