The 2025 NBA draft is fast approaching, scheduled for June 25-26. Now that the pool of early entrants and eligible players is becoming clear, it`s an opportune time to examine the statistical outlook for the top 30 prospects.
Unsurprisingly, Duke`s Cooper Flagg holds the top position in my statistical model. This model estimates long-term NBA value by integrating translated statistical production from NCAA or non-NBA professional leagues with player age and their ranking on ESPN`s top 100 prospects list.
However, Flagg isn`t the only high-ranking freshman. Three other first-year players, including his Duke teammate Kon Knueppel, also feature in the top 10 of both the statistics-only projections and the overall top 100. This level of agreement on top talents often suggests a strong likelihood of successful translation to the NBA. For details on the model`s methodology, further information is available.
With that context, let`s delve into the top 30 projections among players currently listed in ESPN`s top 100 following the declaration deadline, including a few names that might raise eyebrows.
1. Cooper Flagg, F, Duke
Top 100: No. 1
Stats: No. 1
Consensus: 5.3 WARP
As discussed in previous analysis, the key question regarding Flagg isn`t whether he`s the best prospect this year, but where he ranks historically. Only two previous top draft picks (Anthony Davis and Zion Williamson) had better projections than Flagg according to this model. Luka Doncic is the only other player to receive a superior consensus rating. Flagg is unique in this year`s class, as he doesn`t project at least 15% worse than the average NBA-bound college prospect at his position in any of the categories used to identify strengths and weaknesses.
2. Kon Knueppel, G/F, Duke
Top 100: No. 9
Stats: No. 2
Consensus: 3.9 WARP
Having Flagg`s teammate ranked immediately after him might seem unexpected. Based solely on college performance, Knueppel would rank lower, closer to his position in the overall top 100 (No. 9).
However, Knueppel demonstrated the strongest projection among all prospects who participated in the Nike EYBL AAU competition in either 2022 or 2023. In 2023, he achieved a .642 true shooting percentage on 35% usage, indicating a potential for shot creation that wasn`t as apparent playing alongside other talented teammates at Duke.
3. VJ Edgecombe, SG, Baylor
Top 100: No. 4
Stats: No. 4
Consensus: 3.9 WARP
Alongside Flagg, Edgecombe is the second prospect in this class who ranks in the top five of both the statistics-only model and the top 100, which is typically a strong indicator. Although his offensive efficiency during his single season at Baylor was moderate (50% shooting on two-pointers and 34% on three-pointers), he contributed significantly across the box score. Edgecombe is projected to be at least 15% better than the typical NBA-bound college shooting guard in rebound, block, and steal rates. This defensive upside provides him with a solid baseline, while his growth as a shooter will be crucial for his overall potential.
4. Dylan Harper, G, Rutgers
Top 100: No. 2
Stats: No. 7
Consensus: 3.7 WARP
Harper presents a contrast to the comparison with Knueppel. He had a more impactful freshman season in college, averaging 19.4 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per game with decent efficiency considering his significant role in the Rutgers offense (29% usage rate). However, Harper was slightly less effective in EYBL play, and incorporating those statistics resulted in Knueppel being ranked ahead. Notably, Harper was an excellent finisher in college, making 57% of his two-point attempts, the highest percentage among perimeter freshmen who declared for the draft.
5. Isaiah Evans, SG, Duke
Top 100: No. 43
Stats: No. 3
Consensus: 3.0 WARP
This projection might appear surprising. Evans played just 13.8 minutes per game coming off the bench for Duke, yet the model indicates high potential as a shooter. This isn`t primarily due to his 42% three-point accuracy, as that percentage is heavily adjusted towards the average NBA projection because of the small sample size (149 attempts). However, the 12 three-point attempts Evans took per 40 minutes give him the highest shooting projection of any one-and-done player in the database. Given his limited contributions beyond shooting, Evans would need to be elite in that area to secure an NBA rotation spot. Ideally, he might return for a sophomore season in a larger role, providing more data for assessment.
6. Jeremiah Fears, PG, Oklahoma
Top 100: No. 5
Stats: No. 20
Consensus: 2.9 WARP
Fears was a primary offensive driver at Oklahoma. His 31.5% usage rate was the highest for any freshman in a major conference, just slightly ahead of Flagg. Considering this heavy workload, Fears` ability to score with average efficiency was noteworthy. Nevertheless, to warrant a similarly significant role in the NBA, Fears must improve his three-point shooting, which was 28%. An encouraging sign is his 85% free throw accuracy, which is often a positive indicator for future NBA three-point success.
7. Ace Bailey, PF, Rutgers
Top 100: No. 3
Stats: No. 27
Consensus: 2.9 WARP
In a draft class where most top prospects statistically performed well, Bailey was an outlier. His scoring efficiency was negatively impacted by a challenging shot selection rather than a lack of shotmaking ability. According to CBBAnalytics.com, 36% of Bailey`s attempts were non-paint two-pointers, placing him in the 99th percentile nationally. While he made these at a reasonable 43%, this is significantly less effective than the 52% he shot on three-pointers (factoring in the extra point). In the right team system, Bailey could develop into an offensive initiator, but an unsuitable team might struggle to maximize his unique skill set.
8. Noa Essengue, PF, Ratiopharm Ulm (Germany)
Top 100: No. 14
Stats: No. 8
Consensus: 2.6 WARP
Now that Essengue is projected in lottery territory, calling him a sleeper is difficult, but he`s still not ranked quite as high as his statistics-only projection suggests, where he is the top international prospect. Playing in the competitive EuroCup, Essengue averaged 14.4 points and 5.3 rebounds in just 23.7 minutes per game, hitting 66% of his two-point attempts. These stats were achieved against significantly older competition. Essengue will not turn 19 until December, making him the second-youngest prospect in the top 100 after Flagg.
9. Collin Murray-Boyles, PF, South Carolina
Top 100: No. 11
Stats: No. 14
Consensus: 2.6 WARP
Murray-Boyles` production in his second year at South Carolina was too impressive for scouts to overlook. In the SEC, the nation`s strongest conference, he averaged 16.8 points and 8.3 rebounds per game with the highest effective field goal percentage (60%). Although somewhat undersized for a big man at 6-foot-7, Murray-Boyles demonstrated versatility across the box score with seven statistical strengths according to the model, more than any other prospect, just ahead of Flagg`s six. (Memphis guard PJ Haggerty also had six strengths but more weaknesses, not making the top 30).
10. Kasparas Jakucionis, PG, Illinois
Top 100: No. 7
Stats: No. 22
Consensus: 2.6 WARP
Jakucionis offers significant upside on the offensive end. As a tough finisher, he converted 56% of his two-pointers, which is excellent for a guard. Additionally, his 84.5% accuracy from the free-throw line suggests potential for improving his 32% three-point shooting from his time at Illinois, complementing his playmaking skills. The main concern is defensive, where Jakucionis had a below-average steal rate for his position and recorded only nine blocks throughout the season.
11. Egor Demin, PG, BYU
Top 100: No. 12
Stats: No. 19
Consensus: 2.4 WARP
Demin`s combination of impressive court vision and physical size (6-foot-9) to create passing angles gives him the third-best assist projection among players in the top 100. Like Jakucionis, Demin`s size also made him an effective finisher from the backcourt, successfully making 55% of his two-point attempts. However, there is less optimism regarding Demin`s shooting potential. Not only did he make just 27% of his three-point attempts, but his free-throw percentage was also just under 70%.
12. Tre Johnson, SG, Texas
Top 100: No. 6
Stats: No. 30
Consensus: 2.4 WARP
Johnson`s high-volume scoring profile is the type of skill set that often doesn`t fare well in these projections. Usage rate is his only statistical strength, while he performed significantly below average in categories like rebounding, steals, and blocks. His NBA success will heavily depend on how efficient he can be as a scorer. He performed acceptably at the college level, thanks to 40% three-point shooting, but was less effective in EYBL play, shooting only 34% from three in the 2023 campaign.
13. Miles Byrd, SG, San Diego State
Top 100: No. 50
Stats: No. 5
Consensus: 2.3 WARP
My top-rated sleeper prospect outside the first round of the top 100 rankings, Byrd is rated highly due to a rare blend of steal and block rates. Over the past decade, only four other draft picks projected for at least two steals per 100 possessions and a block rate of 2% against opponent two-point attempts: OG Anunoby, Tari Eason, Paul Reed, Matisse Thybulle, and Williamson. Although Byrd`s college three-point shooting was only 30%, his 83% free-throw accuracy suggests he could develop enough spacing ability to remain on the court primarily for his defensive impact.
14. Jase Richardson, G, Michigan State
Top 100: No. 13
Stats: No. 21
Consensus: 2.3 WARP
The eldest son of former NBA guard Jason Richardson, Jase saw his statistical performance improve throughout his freshman year, culminating in a strong rating. In fact, among eligible first-year players, only Flagg ranked higher by Stathead.com`s box plus-minus metric. Richardson`s ranking is slightly lower in the stats-only model, partly because his solid 41% three-point shooting is adjusted towards the mean, and he was somewhat less effective in the 2023 EYBL, where he shot 33% from three. Still, Richardson appears to be a solid value pick towards the end of the lottery.
15. Asa Newell, PF, Georgia
Top 100: No. 21
Stats: No. 11
Consensus: 2.3 WARP
Splitting time between both frontcourt positions, Newell was productive as a freshman, averaging 15.4 points on 63% two-point shooting and 6.9 rebounds. His long-term position in the NBA remains uncertain, as he projects as a below-average shot blocker for a center but needs to develop the shooting consistency required to play power forward. He made just 29% of his college three-point attempts on low volume but was more accurate from the free-throw line (75%).
16. Boogie Fland, PG, Arkansas
Top 100: No. 52
Stats: No. 6
Consensus: 2.2 WARP
As a freshman at Arkansas, Fland struggled with scoring efficiency, hitting just 41% on two-point attempts and not shooting well enough from three (34%) to compensate. His .498 true shooting percentage was the lowest among top-100 prospects this season. Fland performed better in the 2023 EYBL and has a high steal rate, but the scouting consensus regarding his poor shooting likely positions him as a more appropriate second-round selection.
17. Khaman Maluach, C, Duke
Top 100: No. 8
Stats: No. 37
Consensus: 2.2 WARP
Highly efficient on offense, where he shot 75% on two-point attempts and an impressive 77% from the free-throw line with a relatively significant usage rate (16%) for a rim-running big man, Maluach`s defensive rating was less favorable. Compared to the typical NBA-bound college center, Maluach`s 7% block rate was somewhat low, and he recorded only eight steals throughout the season. However, statistics don`t fully capture Maluach`s versatility as a big who can switch defensively, which helps explain his lottery projection.
18. Carter Bryant, F, Arizona
Top 100: No. 20
Stats: No. 18
Consensus: 2.2 WARP
Primarily utilized as a three-and-D player in his freshman year, Bryant showed promise by hitting 37% of his three-point attempts, an efficient 59% on limited two-point attempts, and blocking shots at an impressive rate for a perimeter player. Among non-post players in the top 100, only Nolan Traore has a superior block projection.
19. Walter Clayton Jr., PG, Florida
Top 100: No. 28
Stats: No. 13
Consensus: 2.1 WARP
The breakout star of the NCAA tournament, Clayton`s improved ranking in the top 100 moved him closer to his consistent position in the statistics-only model. The model valued his strong sophomore season at Iona, where he earned MAAC Player of the Year honors, and his career 39% three-point shooting. At 22, Clayton is older than many prospects ranked ahead of him but outperformed many younger players even when accounting for age differences.
20. Liam McNeeley, SF, UConn
Top 100: No. 15
Stats: No. 23
Consensus: 2.1 WARP
McNeeley was not an efficient scorer during his time at UConn, making just 32% of his three-pointers and 44% of his two-pointers. However, there are indicators that his shooting could improve over time. McNeeley made 37% of his threes in the 2023 EYBL and was an excellent 87% free-throw shooter at UConn.
21. Rasheer Fleming, PF, Saint Joseph`s
Top 100: No. 30
Stats: No. 15
Consensus: 2.0 WARP
The combination of solid rebounding and shot blocking made Fleming a notable player in statistical models even before his offensive improvement in 2024-25. By increasing his usage rate, Fleming also achieved a career-best 39% from three-point range, showcasing the stretch ability necessary for him to play power forward in the NBA.
22. Kam Jones, G, Marquette
Top 100: No. 44
Stats: No. 12
Consensus: 1.9 WARP
Following the departure of Tyler Kolek, who was drafted in the second round, Jones transitioned into a primary ball-handler role in 2024-25 after previously excelling off-ball alongside Kolek. Jones more than doubled his assist rate to 5.9 per game while also increasing his scoring, earning consensus All-America honors as a senior. Strong finishing near the basket (59% career on two-pointers) and high-volume three-point shooting (9.0 career attempts per 40 minutes) suggest Jones could thrive as a creative scorer off the bench in the NBA.
23. Koby Brea, SG, Kentucky
Top 100: No. 55
Stats: No. 9
Consensus: 1.9 WARP
Rated as the top shooter in the draft class, Brea brings a clear value proposition with his career 43% accuracy from beyond the arc and sufficient size (6-foot-6) to get his shot off against NBA defenders. The right team could potentially maximize Brea`s ability to shoot coming off screens. He was effective in this play type last season, according to Synergy Sports, but had only 31 such attempts within Kentucky`s offense.
24. Tahaad Pettiford, PG, Auburn
Top 100: No. 38
Stats: No. 17
Consensus: 1.8 WARP
Playing off the bench for a deep Auburn team that featured five senior starters, Pettiford was the third-leading scorer as a freshman, behind fellow NBA prospects Johni Broome and Chad Baker-Mazara. He will need to improve his finishing, having shot just 49% on two-pointers as an undersized point guard prospect, but his assist-to-turnover ratio near 2.0 was a positive sign.
25. Payton Sandfort, SF, Iowa
Top 100: No. 84
Stats: No. 10
Consensus: 1.8 WARP
Sandfort`s offensive performance dipped in his senior year, with both two-point (49%) and three-point (34%) accuracy hitting career lows. However, he was exceptionally efficient as a junior and boasts a career 90% free-throw percentage. A key question for Sandfort is how much of his past success was enabled by Fran McCaffery`s offensive system at Iowa. The program has produced four draft picks since 2021, but only Keegan Murray (No. 4 pick) has established himself as a consistent NBA rotation player.
26. Nolan Traore, PG, Saint Quentin (France)
Top 100: No. 18
Stats: No. 36
Consensus: 1.7 WARP
After standing out in last year`s Nike Hoop Summit, Traore opted to play professionally in France instead of attending college. He made an immediate impact in the French LNB playoffs, initially ranking fifth in the top 100 entering the year, but his play saw his ranking decline. On the positive side, Traore has the best assist projection among all top-100 players, averaging 5.2 assists per game in just 22.8 minutes. However, his inefficient scoring (43% on two-pointers and 28% on three-pointers) caused him to fall out of the top 30 in the statistics-only model.
27. Cedric Coward, SF, Washington State
Top 100: No. 53
Stats: No. 16
Consensus: 1.7 WARP
Although Coward played only six games for Washington State after transferring from nearby Eastern Washington, and under a different coach, the success of NBA Rookie of the Year candidate Jaylen Wells, who also came from the same program, could positively impact his draft stock. At Eastern Washington, Coward was a remarkably efficient scorer, shooting an impressive 72% on two-pointers and 39% on three-pointers. He also projects as an above-average rebounder and passer for a small forward.
28. Will Riley, F/G, Illinois
Top 100: No. 16
Stats: No. 43
Consensus: 1.6 WARP
Named the Big Ten Sixth Man of the Year for his high-usage performance (24%) off the bench as a freshman, Riley must improve his three-point shooting to succeed in an NBA wing role. He shot 33% at Illinois and just 31% in the 2023 EYBL, although his free-throw shooting was relatively better (72% in college).
29. Thomas Sorber, C, Georgetown
Top 100: No. 24
Stats: No. 32
Consensus: 1.6 WARP
It`s remarkable that no Georgetown player has been drafted since Otto Porter Jr. in 2013. Sorber is expected to end that streak if he remains in the draft, following a freshman season averaging 14.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks per game. While these numbers are good, the standard for center production at the NCAA level is high. This high bar particularly works against fellow freshman Derik Queen of Maryland, who doesn`t rank in my top 30 despite being 10th in the top 100. In contrast to Queen, Sorber demonstrated much more effective shot blocking.
30. Alex Karaban, F, UConn
Top 100: No. 36
Stats: No. 26
Consensus: 1.6 WARP
After starting on UConn`s back-to-back national championship teams, Karaban stayed for another season while the rest of the starting five moved on to the NBA. Karaban didn`t see the scoring leap he might have anticipated, with his accuracy on both two-pointers (54%) and three-pointers (35%) declining slightly in a larger role. However, Karaban did display improved playmaking skills, nearly doubling his assists to 2.8 per game, and also blocked shots at a career-high rate without Donovan Clingan patrolling the paint.
