With the 2025 NBA Finals tied at one win apiece after two games, the series between the Indiana Pacers and the Oklahoma City Thunder has largely unfolded as anticipated. Observers correctly predicted that for the Pacers to secure a win on the Thunder`s home court, they would likely need the kind of dynamic play that powered their earlier playoff victories against Milwaukee, Cleveland, and New York. Game 1 saw Indiana deliver just that.
However, following their typical pattern after a playoff loss, Oklahoma City demonstrated its superior talent in Game 2, quickly establishing a lead and maintaining control throughout the game, preventing the Pacers from making a significant comeback.
While the overall narrative of the series feels familiar, the underlying statistics have been far from ordinary. From the Pacers` struggles with turnovers to the Thunder`s elevated free throw attempts, the opening games have produced several statistical figures that significantly deviate from these teams` season averages. Understanding these outliers is crucial because comparing current performance to established baselines reveals what a team is executing effectively and where they are falling short.
To gain this insight, we analyzed the game logs for both conventional and advanced metrics, calculating percentile grades for Games 1 and 2 relative to all games played during the regular season and postseason. The categories showing the largest average deviation from full-season norms highlight the areas where teams are performing most unlike themselves, sometimes positively, sometimes negatively.
Based on this analysis, here are five of the most significant statistical outliers observed in the series thus far, representing how each team is performing compared to its own historical data.
Indiana 2-Pointers
Throughout the entire season, the Pacers have averaged 30.0 made 2-pointers per game, shooting an impressive 56.6% from inside the arc. They ranked among the top five NBA teams in both categories during the regular season. Pascal Siakam, individually, ranked 18th in the league with 6.2 made 2s per game, spearheading an Indiana offense that traditionally relies less on 3-pointers than many other teams in the 2024-25 season.
In the Finals, however, Indiana`s performance inside the arc has shifted dramatically. They are averaging just 22.0 made 2-pointers per game, with Siakam`s average dropping to 4.0. Their shooting percentage on 2-pointers has also fallen to 51.8%. Both these figures represent some of the team`s lowest production levels of the season for 2-point shots.
Concurrently, the Pacers are attempting an average of 39.5 3-pointers per game, taking over 48% of their total shots from beyond the arc, compared to their season averages of 35.5 attempts and 40% of shots. While trailing in games can partially explain this shift, Indiana has clearly been moved away from its typical shot distribution in this series.
Indiana Turnovers / Opponent Steals
Another factor contributing to Indiana`s reduced field goal production is their increased rate of turnovers. According to Basketball-Reference, nearly 18% of the Pacers` possessions have resulted in a giveaway in the Finals, a significant jump from their season-long rate of 11.9%. Their 25 turnovers in Game 1 were the most by a team that went on to win an NBA Finals game since 1977.
Oklahoma City`s steals, in particular, stand out as a major statistical outlier. Their 14 takeaways in Game 1 were tied for the second-most Indiana allowed in any game throughout the season and easily the highest figure they`ve conceded during the playoffs. Across Games 1 and 2, OKC is averaging 12.0 steals per game, dramatically higher than the 7.3 steals per game Indiana typically allows.
The Thunder are recognized as one of the league`s premier teams at forcing turnovers defensively, while the Pacers were one of the best at minimizing offensive giveaways. In this series, something had to give, and currently, the trend favors Oklahoma City.
Oklahoma City Free Throws
Despite the reputation of certain Thunder players for frequently getting to the free-throw line, Oklahoma City`s offense was not among the most reliant on drawing fouls during the regular season. They ranked 24th in made free throws per field goal attempt and averaged only 16.7 free throws per game, ranking 19th.
In the Finals, however, Oklahoma City has significantly increased its trips to the line, averaging 25.0 free throws per game. Their ratio of free throws attempted per field goal attempt is 51% higher than their season average.
The Thunder`s 29 made free throws in Game 2 were the third-highest total they achieved in a single game all season and were tied for the fourth-most Indiana has allowed in a game. While the Pacers are fouling more than their usual average, the Thunder have also boosted their effectiveness by converting 87.7% of their free throws in the series. Notably, the first two Finals games represent two of their five most accurate free-throw shooting performances of the entire playoffs. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander alone has accounted for 36% of the Thunder`s made free throws, somehow improving on his league-leading rate of made free throws per game from the regular season.
Indiana Scoring
Despite improved balance this season, the Pacers remain a team heavily reliant on their offense. They finished the regular season ranked No. 9 in offensive efficiency (compared to No. 13 defensively) and climbed to No. 2 on offense during the playoffs. Across the full season, Indiana averages 117.2 points per game, but in the Finals, that figure has dropped to 109.0. This is the first time in this playoff run that the Pacers have been held to 111 points or fewer in each of the opening two games of a series.
This scoring dip cannot be attributed to a slower pace; the 99.8 possessions per Finals game is actually slightly higher than the Pacers` season-long average of 99.6. Instead, it`s explained by the factors mentioned earlier: exchanging more 2-pointers for 3-pointers and, significantly, the high volume of turnovers.
Regardless of the specific causes, the net result is fewer points, particularly from Indiana`s key players. After averaging a combined 39.9 points per game during the playoffs leading up to the Finals, Pascal Siakam and Tyrese Haliburton are scoring just 32.5 combined points per game in this series.
Both Teams` Assists
An early trend that affects both offenses is a reduction in their assist numbers compared to their typical averages.
Based on their season-long numbers, Indiana and Oklahoma City would typically combine for 55.5 assists per game, with 29.0 from the Pacers and 26.5 from the Thunder. However, through the first two Finals games, their combined average has dropped to 44.5 assists per game, with Indiana falling to 25.5 and Oklahoma City dropping more significantly to 19.0.
These are substantial declines for both teams, though the reasons differ. For Indiana, their assist rate (assists per made basket) has actually slightly increased in the Finals (from 66.9% to 67.3%). The issue is simply that they are making far fewer total baskets than usual (38.0 field goals per game versus a typical average of 43.3).
Oklahoma City, conversely, is genuinely distributing the ball less often than usual. Their assist rate is 47.9% in Games 1 and 2 (including a season-low 33.3% in Game 1), compared to their season-long average of 59.7%. While Shai Gilgeous-Alexander`s assist total improved from three in Game 1 to eight in Game 2, the Pacers will likely continue focusing on disrupting the Thunder`s usual ball movement patterns.
