Despite McLaren appearing to have the fastest car in the initial rounds of the 2025 F1 season, a strategic move by Red Bull in Saudi Arabian Grand Prix qualifying has given Max Verstappen a chance to take the championship lead.
McLaren`s strong performance in practice in Jeddah led many to expect a front-row lockout by Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri. However, qualifying turned out to be extremely dramatic.
Championship leader Norris crashed in Q3, leaving him in 10th place and with little hope of maintaining his lead over Piastri and Verstappen.
The incident also reduced the time left in Q3 to just over eight minutes, barely enough for the remaining drivers to attempt two flying laps.
This option was really only viable for Verstappen and Mercedes` George Russell, the only drivers with two sets of fresh soft tires at this point in qualifying.
Piastri had already set a time before Norris` crash, using one of his two remaining new sets of soft tires.
Red Bull capitalized on the situation. Verstappen`s engineer, Gianpiero Lambiase, sent him out for a first run where he took provisional pole, putting pressure on his rivals.
Russell and then Piastri briefly took the top spot, before Verstappen, after a quick pit stop for fresh tires, snatched pole position from Piastri by just a hundredth of a second.
Verstappen`s ability to take provisional pole on his first run was even more impressive because he had enough fuel for two attempts.
Verstappen Praises Strategy, Horner Highlights Tight Margin
Verstappen explained, “With the crash, you had to change your approach. I wasn`t completely sure what to do.”
“In the end, GP (Lambiase) suggested fueling for two laps. So, you do the first lap on used tires, then pit and switch to new ones. You carry more fuel, making you a bit slower initially.”
“But it was the right decision. It was definitely the best approach for me to get a feel for the car and build up to the limit.”
Red Bull team principal Christian Horner mentioned that the strategy left them with only a 25-second window for Verstappen`s two runs, praising Verstappen for delivering another excellent qualifying lap.
Horner said, “It was right on the edge of doing two timed laps, with only 25 seconds of margin, or just doing one?”
“We chose to do two, which adds pressure because any issue would cost you that margin.”
“What impressed me most was that because of the pit stop, he had to carry extra fuel.”
“So, he had six or seven kilograms more fuel on that first lap, yet he was still quickest, putting pressure on the others. And then, his final lap was again outstanding.”
Did Mercedes Miss an Opportunity?
Russell was in a similar situation to Verstappen after Norris` crash, but Mercedes chose to wait for just one run at the end.
Russell mentioned that the option of two runs was discussed, but the decision to go for one meant he had to be more cautious on his attempt.
“Starting on new tires and then switching to used ones was discussed,” Russell said.
“I`m sure it was discussed on the pit wall. I`m not involved in every conversation as I`m driving, trusting the team. But we`ll discuss it later.”
“As a driver, knowing you have only one lap, especially on a track like this, requires full commitment.”
“Turn 1… you`re pushing the tires to be as cold as possible, and I lacked the confidence to push them any cooler. I lost some time because my tires were a bit too hot as I was slightly conservative.”
Piastri revealed that McLaren also considered an extra run but decided the risk was greater than the potential reward.
Piastri stated, “We talked about it, but decided against it. Having a lap time already, I didn`t need to set another one.”
“It was going to be very tight. Like Max said, he had to fuel for the entire run. That first lap on used tires with extra fuel, you weigh the learning against the risk.”
“Without a lap time, it`s different. But with a time set, and having used three or four new sets already, we opted for a single lap at the end, which I think was the right call for us.”
Piastri Confident, Verstappen Cautious About Race Pace
If Verstappen wins on Sunday and Norris doesn`t finish second, Verstappen will lead the championship.
Verstappen is currently eight points behind Norris, with Piastri three points behind his McLaren teammate.
However, Piastri is expected to start the race as the favorite. McLaren`s advantage in race pace has been larger than in qualifying, especially in hot conditions due to less tire degradation.
For Piastri, holding second place at the start is crucial. McLaren will then have the opportunity to use an undercut or overcut strategy against Verstappen in what is expected to be a one-stop race, assuming no safety cars.
“I think we have good pace. Red Bull and Max seem more competitive here than last week in Bahrain,” said Piastri.
“Suzuka is similar to this track with many high-speed corners, so it makes sense they are more competitive. We`ll see if that translates to the race.”
“I`m confident in our race pace. There are many DRS zones here, unlike Suzuka.”
Piastri mentions Suzuka because Verstappen dominated there after a similar qualifying performance. However, overtaking is more challenging at Suzuka compared to Jeddah.
McLaren has stated they will be `more aggressive` after Verstappen`s win in Japan, making Sunday`s race a key test.
Verstappen, a two-time winner in Jeddah, is uncertain about having the pace to keep Piastri behind.
“Honestly, I`m not very confident right now,” he admitted. “My long runs weren`t great compared to Oscar or Lando. I will give it my best, for sure.”
“Will it be enough? I don`t know. But the car has improved a bit from yesterday`s testing.”
“Hopefully, that will help with tire life and give us a chance to fight. But, as I said, I`ll give it a try.”
Could Russell Get His First 2025 Win?
Russell cannot be ruled out, as he has had a strong start to the season, only 14 points behind Norris.
Starting third, Russell will likely need to overtake Piastri on the first lap to have a chance at a surprise Mercedes victory.
“It depends on Turn 1, to be honest. Max and I were just talking. We both agree McLaren are the clear favorites and have pace over everyone else,” said Russell.
“If Oscar takes the lead, it might be like Bahrain again. If we stay in qualifying order, it could be a close race until the pit stops.”
“The medium tire this year is like last year`s soft, which only one driver used in the whole race. We felt the tires were too hard in Japan. We`ve all pushed for softer tires.”
“Hopefully, it won`t be an easy one-stop race, and there might be different strategies in play.”
`Anything Could Happen, But McLaren Will Be Disappointed`
While McLaren is publicly optimistic, Bernie Collins from Sky Sports F1 believes the possibility of Verstappen leading the championship after races McLaren could have dominated will be concerning for them.
“They have a very strong race car, but like Japan recently, this weekend was about securing the front row today.”
“Oscar achieved that, but he might be disappointed it`s not P1. Questions will be asked about maximizing the car`s potential today.”
“When you have the fastest car, which we believe they do, it`s about converting opportunities.”
“Here, anything can happen in the race, so you need to be ready to seize chances. Zak Brown was positive, but I think they will be a bit disappointed.”
