Real Madrid is known for creating magical moments in the Champions League, especially at their home stadium, Santiago Bernabeu. As their coach Carlo Ancelotti mentioned, unexpected things can happen there.
While their history and atmosphere are advantages, overturning a three-goal deficit against Arsenal, who have the best defense in Europe, is a massive challenge.
In the first leg, Real Madrid didn`t seem capable of scoring three goals at Arsenal`s Emirates Stadium. They only had nine shots and a low expected goal rate. Although Arsenal made some early mistakes, their defense, led by players like William Saliba and Jurrien Timber, quickly tightened up and became very difficult to break down.
Arsenal`s strong defense is built on talented defenders. Timber effectively contained Vinicius Junior, and young Myles Lewis-Skelly showed great anticipation. Even Jakub Kiwior, who was expected to be a weak point, played well and demonstrated his talent.
Kiwior and his Arsenal teammates are focused and determined. This Arsenal team is serious and doesn`t easily concede goals. They are well-organized defensively, making it very hard for opponents to get shots. Fulham`s Sander Berge even noted their flawless shape, as if they were being controlled remotely.
Arsenal`s best defense is often their possession of the ball. They attack strategically when their defense is well-positioned. They are among the best in the Premier League at preventing counter-attack shots, despite committing many players forward in attack.
The last time Arsenal conceded three goals was in December 2023 against Luton. It has been almost two years since they lost by a three-goal margin, which is what Real Madrid needs to force extra time.
Brentford`s manager, Thomas Frank, acknowledged how difficult Arsenal is to play against after his team struggled to create chances against them. He praised Arsenal`s defensive strength and organization, suggesting they are in good shape.
While Real Madrid is a step up from teams like Fulham and Brentford, their first-leg performance didn`t show that dominance. For the second leg, Real Madrid will likely need to attack from the start. Players like Bellingham, Rodrygo, Mbappe, and Vinicius Junior will need to be more aggressive offensively.
However, Arsenal`s defense, especially with Declan Rice in midfield, is very effective at stopping transitions. If Arsenal can bypass Real Madrid`s press, they have dangerous attacking players like Saka and Odegaard who can exploit open spaces. Additionally, Gabriel Martinelli on the other wing is a threat in open play.
Real Madrid has only one clean sheet in their last ten games and has conceded a high number of shots and expected goals recently. Their defense has been vulnerable, especially against top teams in the Champions League.
Although two free kicks helped Arsenal win the first leg, they also created more chances from open play. Saka, even when not fully fit, was able to create opportunities against Real Madrid`s defense. Real Madrid seemed to be playing cautiously in the first leg, perhaps planning to win at home.
However, that strategy backfired. Arsenal will not underestimate Real Madrid, but based on the first leg, even the aura of Real Madrid may not be enough to overcome Arsenal`s strong defense and a three-goal deficit. A comeback for Real Madrid looks unlikely.
