As the celebrations for Liverpool`s Premier League title win subside, attention is already turning towards the battle for the next season`s championship.
Forecasting the outcome of the upcoming season is challenging, especially given the surprises of the recent campaign. At the season`s start, Opta analytics gave Liverpool only a 5.1% chance of winning the title, yet they built a significant lead and comfortably secured the trophy. This wasn`t the only unexpected turn; Manchester City, initially strong favorites with an 82.2% probability, were out of the title race by the new year and ended up focusing on securing a UEFA Champions League spot.
The composition of next season`s title race will heavily depend on activity in the summer transfer window, which is anticipated to be busy for many clubs. This holds true for established sides like City and Liverpool, as well as ambitious teams aiming to climb the table, such as Newcastle United and Aston Villa. Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur also face crucial summers after unexpectedly poor performances. While not all these teams will genuinely contend for the title, the unpredictable nature of the past season suggests some dark horses could emerge and warrant close observation.
Here is an early prediction of the potential contenders for the Premier League title in the upcoming season.
Honorable mention: Aston Villa
Unai Emery has consistently improved Aston Villa over his two-plus years, recently challenging a formidable Paris Saint-Germain before their UEFA Champions League quarter-final exit. However, at this moment, they seem a step or two away from being genuine title dark horses. Breaking into the Premier League`s elite tier is difficult for any club not already there, particularly one that might face the demanding schedule of Thursday-Sunday matches from potential UEFA Europa League or UEFA Conference League participation. They are strong candidates for a top-four finish, but a title challenge would likely require significant summer transfers and another highly unusual Premier League season.
5. Chelsea
There was a time when Chelsea, with their youth-focused squad and inexperienced manager Enzo Maresca, surprisingly kept pace with Liverpool. However, their recent form over the last four years has been inconsistent; they`ve won just seven of their last 17 Premier League matches, and star player Cole Palmer has experienced a notable goalless run. The financial benefits and prestige of a Champions League place could help them significantly upgrade their squad. This potential is perhaps the only factor giving them an edge over Aston Villa, as realistically, the Blues don`t yet look prepared for a serious title challenge.
4. Newcastle United
Being labeled a dark horse implies the trophy is likely headed elsewhere, but if any team fits this description, it`s Newcastle United. Eddie Howe has had a transformative impact on the Magpies, similar to Emery`s effect on Villa, although Newcastle appear slightly further along. There`s a strong case that they`ve been one of the most in-form teams in England since the New Year, securing impressive victories against Arsenal and Liverpool. Howe also guided the team to end a 65-year trophy drought by winning the EFL Cup in March, making them one of the most intriguing clubs to follow both domestically and in Europe next season. However, their hopes for continued success may hinge on their summer recruitment. The future of top scorer Alexander Isak (22 league goals this season) is a question mark, and strengthening several positions might be necessary to reach the next level.
3. Liverpool
Currently, there are likely three main contenders for the title – Liverpool, Arsenal, and Manchester City – and their final standings could change drastically based on their summer transfer activity. While the Reds are still basking in their recent title success, their initial 5.1% chance reflected their decision not to significantly overhaul the squad. Liverpool`s gamble on their experienced core having one more strong season paid off, but eventually, manager Arne Slot and his team will need to plan for a future without key figures like Mohamed Salah and Virgil van Dijk. The potential departure of Trent Alexander-Arnold to Real Madrid this summer adds another complication, likely making replacing him an immediate priority for their transfer business. If they successfully strengthen the squad in time for next season, they could be favorites to retain the title; otherwise, they might find themselves lower down the table.
2. Arsenal
A pattern is emerging for Mikel Arteta`s Arsenal: always the bridesmaid. They are poised to secure their third consecutive second-place finish. Reaching their first Champions League semi-final in nearly two decades offered some consolation for missing out on the league title this season, but their domestic form highlighted a clear need for a prolific goalscorer to pose a serious threat in the league. There`s an argument that if rival clubs don`t have perfect transfer windows, Arsenal`s current setup might still be strong enough to capitalize in another season of Premier League unpredictability. However, the most certain path to finishing first is likely signing the forward they are evidently missing; failure to do so will probably increase the pressure on Arteta.
1. Manchester City
The past Premier League season may have been unusual in many respects, but if there`s one team to watch closely next season, it`s Manchester City. Although they dropped out of the title race relatively early this time, the weight of expectation will quickly return to the Etihad Stadium, especially following their spending in the winter transfer window. Summer will likely involve squad adjustments, particularly as new director of football Hugo Viana begins the task of finding a replacement for Kevin De Bruyne. City will also need to manage while Rodri recovers from an ACL tear. Nevertheless, with Pep Guardiola still at the helm and Erling Haaland eager to reassert his dominance as one of his generation`s top goal scorers, it is hard *not* to consider them the team to beat.
