Almost a month after the 2025 NBA playoffs commenced, only four teams remain: the Indiana Pacers, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Minnesota Timberwolves. Each is just one series win away from reaching the NBA Finals.
Eastern Conference
New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers
How Indiana Reached This Stage
Indiana is back in the conference finals for the second straight season, following a less straightforward path than one might expect. Their appearance last year raised questions due to numerous injuries across the Eastern Conference, which seemingly cleared their path to the final four before eventually being swept by Boston.
This season started slowly for the Pacers, holding a 16-18 record on January 1st. However, they have been one of the league`s top teams since the new year began, boasting a 42-16 record including the postseason. They first overcame the Milwaukee Bucks and then upset the dominant 64-win Cleveland Cavaliers, despite not being favored in any second-round game. Indiana capitalized on opponents hampered by significant injuries (including Damian Lillard, Darius Garland, and Evan Mobley) to dispatch both teams in five games.
Tyrese Haliburton has been crucial, hitting two game-winning shots in the playoffs and averaging 17.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, and a playoff-leading 9.3 assists, driving Indiana`s high-octane offense. Building on the confidence from last season`s second-round Game 7 win against the Knicks at Madison Square Garden, the Pacers are fueled for another deep postseason run.
How New York Reached This Stage
New York`s journey to the conference finals has been quite remarkable. While solid during the regular season, they weren`t dominant, finishing 15-13 after the All-Star break. They typically defeated lesser teams but struggled against winning records, posting a 15-23 mark, which was the worst among teams earning home-court advantage in the first round.
Strikingly, New York was winless in 10 games against the league`s three 60-win teams, going 0-8 against the top-seeded Cavaliers and second-seeded Celtics. This made them the first No. 3 seed since 1984 to fail to win a single game against the top two teams in their conference. Most of these eight losses were not even competitive.
However, powered by a resilient “never-say-die” attitude and a resurgent Mitchell Robinson impacting the boards after missing 60 regular-season games, this new-look Knicks squad appears to be peaking at the ideal time. This cohesion will likely be essential to compete with a Pacers team that has performed like one of the NBA`s elite for months.
Series Insights
Sources suggest that controlling the game`s style will be paramount in this series. The team that dictates the pace and approach will likely advance to the NBA Finals for the first time in over two decades.
The teams are built fundamentally differently. New York features a top-heavy roster, prioritizing star power acquired through trades, potentially at the expense of depth. Indiana, conversely, relies on a more balanced roster and depth to wear down opponents.
New York, with a methodical offense centered around Jalen Brunson, aims for a half-court battle. Indiana, known for its fast-break prowess, will look to leverage speed and depth to fatigue the Knicks as the series unfolds. This has been Indiana`s successful formula across their playoff series wins over the last two seasons.
The teams appear relatively evenly matched in key positions. New York has Mikal Bridges to defend Haliburton and OG Anunoby for Pascal Siakam. Karl-Anthony Towns and Myles Turner offer similar options in the frontcourt. A crucial factor could be whether Indiana`s Andrew Nembhard, a capable defensive guard, can contain Brunson more effectively than he did last year in the conference semifinals.
Another key matchup to observe is whether Mitchell Robinson can replicate his dominant interior performance against Boston or if the Pacers` transition offense can negate his influence. The second unit battle, particularly Robinson against Thomas Bryant, seems to favor New York entering the series.
Can New York`s Starters Keep Pace?
Indiana boasts the playoffs` most effective high-usage lineup (Haliburton, Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Siakam, Turner) with a dominant +22.1 net rating in the postseason (+11.9 in the regular season). In contrast, the Knicks` starting five has been outscored in the playoffs with a -4.7 net rating, following a modest +3.3 in the regular season.
This highlights Indiana`s starters` consistency in building leads, while New York`s talented first unit has often fallen behind, necessitating comebacks. The Pacers` starting group is athletic, balanced, and has a strong identity, while the Knicks` five, though capable in spurts, has been less cohesive. This disparity could benefit Indiana, as New York`s pattern of allowing double-digit deficits may eventually prove too costly.
Anthony Edwards has been a driving force in leading the Timberwolves back to the conference finals.
Western Conference
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
How Minnesota Reached This Stage
The Timberwolves are in consecutive conference finals for the first time in franchise history but are approaching the Thunder matchup without complacency.
Acknowledging their underdog status, Minnesota began the postseason on the road, defeating the Lakers soundly in Game 1 and grinding out three close wins to advance in five games. They benefited from Stephen Curry`s absence after Game 1 of the semifinals against Golden State and dominated the Warriors in the final two games to set up the series with Oklahoma City.
Despite finishing the regular season strongly (17-4) and dominating the postseason so far, Minnesota took time to solidify as a contender. They started 8-10 and were 22-21 halfway through the season before key pieces truly fit. Newcomers Donte DiVincenzo, acquired with Julius Randle (traded from the Knicks for Karl-Anthony Towns) in a training camp deal, have been impactful. DiVincenzo provides valuable two-way play off the bench, while the 30-year-old Randle has played arguably the best basketball of his career this postseason, averaging 23.9 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 5.9 assists on 50.9% shooting.
Core players like 23-year-old superstar Anthony Edwards, defensive anchors Jaden McDaniels and Rudy Gobert, veteran leader Mike Conley, and coach Chris Finch remain constants. Edwards, challenged by Finch to improve his decision-making as the offense increasingly relies on him, continues to set the tone with his infectious confidence, making it clear he seeks more than just a conference finals appearance.
How Oklahoma City Reached This Stage
Oklahoma City`s decisive Game 7 victory over Denver exemplified their playoff journey. Their success is built on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander`s highly efficient scoring, Jalen Williams` versatile support, and a relentless, disruptive defense that creates chaos.
This approach led to a franchise-record 68 wins and an NBA-record point differential (+12.9) in the regular season.
Gilgeous-Alexander, the likely MVP, led the league with 32.7 points per game on a career-best 63.7% true shooting percentage. While his scoring average is slightly lower in the postseason (29.0 points on 58.6% true shooting), he stepped up significantly when needed in the second round. After trailing the Nuggets 2-1, he averaged 30.8 points on 65.6% true shooting over the final four games, hitting crucial shots to secure victories in Games 4 and 5.
Williams had a strong Game 7 (24 points on 10-of-17 shooting, seven assists) but had an otherwise inconsistent offensive series, shooting just 10-of-43 in the preceding three games. As a first-time All-Star this season, Oklahoma City requires him to perform at that level in the West finals.
Williams excels in transition, often fueled by defensive stops. In Game 7, many of his scores came from capitalizing on the Nuggets` 23 turnovers, which led to 37 points for Oklahoma City. The Thunder didn`t just have the league`s best defense by a wide margin; their defense frequently generates their best offense. They led the league in forced turnovers (17.0) and points off turnovers (21.8) in the regular season, increasing these numbers in the playoffs (18.3 turnovers, 24.7 points off turnovers).
Series Insights
Despite Oklahoma City being the league`s top team all season with 68 wins, defensive versatility, and the likely MVP in Gilgeous-Alexander, some analysts believe Minnesota, having swept their first two series, could pose a significant challenge.
The series is anticipated to be highly competitive. Minnesota`s size and length across positions, featuring big guards and a rotation of Naz Reid, Julius Randle, and Rudy Gobert inside, match up well against Oklahoma City`s desire for a physical, disruptive game – a key component of the Thunder`s defensive identity.
However, Oklahoma City`s inconsistent offense, particularly from the perimeter, was evident against Denver. Jalen Williams` scoring fluctuated significantly, following a 33-point Game 3 with a combined 10-for-43 over the next three games as the secondary scoring threat alongside Gilgeous-Alexander.
While Oklahoma City possesses more explosive offensive potential, questions remain about the consistency of their role players. The Thunder are seen by some as having the NBA`s best roster, but their success in this series may depend on whether players beyond Gilgeous-Alexander can consistently make shots. If they do, a dominant win is possible; if not, the series could be a struggle.
Will Minnesota`s Zones Be Effective?
Oklahoma City`s uneven perimeter shooting prompted Denver to frequently employ zone defense in their series. In Game 4, the Nuggets used zone defense on 55 possessions, tying the highest recorded total in any regular season or playoff game tracked by GeniusIQ.
Against Denver`s zone, Oklahoma City averaged 1.04 points per possession over the first six games, slightly less efficient than their 1.07 points per possession against man-to-man defense. While they improved against the zone in the Game 7 blowout, that game featured a compromised Denver team.
Consequently, Minnesota is expected to utilize zone defenses extensively, especially after having nearly a week to prepare. According to GeniusIQ, the Timberwolves used zone on 52 possessions across four regular-season matchups with Oklahoma City, more than against any other opponent.
Coach Chris Finch leaned heavily on zone defense in back-to-back games against OKC after the All-Star break. The zone helped Minnesota erase a 22-point fourth-quarter deficit in the second game, which they won in overtime. Oklahoma City scored only seven points on 17 possessions against the zone in the final period and overtime of that specific game, indicating its potential effectiveness for Minnesota.
