Premier League Race for Champions League Spots: Can Chelsea, Man City and Newcastle Hold Off a Crowded Field?

As the Premier League season approaches its final stretch, with only nine game rounds remaining, the battle for Champions League qualification intensifies. While Liverpool`s likely title victory and the expected relegation of promoted teams seem clear, the real excitement lies in the race for Champions League spots. With Liverpool and Arsenal seemingly taking the top two, potentially three or more spots are up for grabs, and up to eight teams believe they are in contention.

Nottingham Forest currently holds third place, but questions linger about whether their position truly reflects their performance level. Chelsea, in fourth, once appeared to be the league`s third strongest team, though that form has waned. Manchester City, sitting fifth, faces similar scrutiny.

Newcastle, buoyed by their EFL Cup win, are in pursuit, followed by Aston Villa, a Champions League quarter-finalist, and unexpected contenders Brighton, Fulham, and Bournemouth, all within striking distance of City. With so much at stake, let`s examine the remaining fixtures and assess each team`s chances of finishing in the top five.

It`s important to note that the Premier League is guaranteed four Champions League qualification slots. However, England`s strong European club performances make it highly probable that they will secure a fifth spot. There is a high likelihood of at least five English teams playing Champions League football next season, and possibly more if Aston Villa wins the Champions League, or Tottenham or Manchester United win the Europa League this year.

Gameweek 30

• Arsenal 2, Fulham 1
• Wolves 0, West Ham 1
• Nottingham Forest 2, Manchester United 2
• Bournemouth 2, Ipswich 1
• Brighton 1, Aston Villa 1
• Manchester City 3, Leicester 0
• Newcastle 2, Brentford 1
• Southampton 0, Crystal Palace 2
• Liverpool 1, Everton 0
• Chelsea 2, Tottenham 2

It`s unlikely Fulham will trouble Arsenal again. With Bukayo Saka expected back, Arsenal poses a significant threat to Fulham, potentially dropping them to 10th. Bournemouth, with a favorable home fixture against Ipswich, could overtake them. The final weeks might hinge on avoiding upsets against lower-ranked teams, and Manchester City is unlikely to stumble against Leicester.

Chelsea, however, could face a challenge. Tottenham, while historically struggling at Stamford Bridge, could be near full strength with Ange Postecoglou`s lineup and potentially cause an upset.

Gameweek 31

• Everton 1, Arsenal 1
• Crystal Palace 2, Brighton 1
• Ipswich 2, Wolves 0
• West Ham 2, Bournemouth 2
• Aston Villa 3, Nottingham Forest 1
• Brentford 0, Chelsea 0
• Fulham 1, Liverpool 3
• Tottenham 2, Southampton 0
• Manchester United 0, Manchester City 1
• Leicester 0, Newcastle 2

The match at Villa Park is crucial for Nottingham Forest. A win could provide breathing room, while a loss risks pulling them back into the pack. A couple of poor results could see Nuno Espirito Santo`s team drop within 10 points of 11th, still a decent position for them.

This period could also be when Newcastle solidifies their place in the top five race.

Gameweek 32

• Manchester City 2, Crystal Palace 1
• Brighton 1, Leicester 0
• Nottingham Forest 2, Everton 0
• Southampton 1, Aston Villa 0
• Arsenal 1, Brentford 0
• Chelsea 3, Ipswich 0
• Liverpool 2, West Ham 1
• Wolves 1, Tottenham 0
• Newcastle 3, Manchester United 1
• Bournemouth 3, Fulham 2

Game in hand

• Newcastle 2, Crystal Palace 2

With favorable results in two away games, Crystal Palace could enter the European conversation. However, securing points at the Etihad Stadium and St. James` Park against Manchester City and Newcastle respectively will be tough. Newcastle, in particular, will be playing shortly after a demanding match against Manchester United.

Other notable games include Southampton needing a win, and Aston Villa playing amidst Champions League quarter-finals. Fulham needs a win at Dean Court to maintain Champions League hopes. While it`s early to rule out teams seventh or lower, bridging a six-point gap in as many games will be challenging.

Predicted partial table on April 17

Gameweek 33

• Brentford 2, Brighton 0
• Crystal Palace 2, Bournemouth 2
• Everton 0, Manchester City 1
• West Ham 1, Southampton 0
• Aston Villa 3, Newcastle 2
• Fulham 0, Chelsea 1
• Ipswich 0, Arsenal 2
• Manchester United 2, Wolves 1
• Leicester 1, Liverpool 3
• Tottenham 2, Nottingham Forest 1

This week features two crucial Champions League qualification matches. Aston Villa`s win against Newcastle opens opportunities for themselves, Bournemouth, and Brighton, while a loss could solidify the top six. Tottenham might also influence the top five race. Despite not performing significantly worse than Forest based on expected goal difference, Tottenham could still play a decisive role if they maintain their intensity.

Gameweek 34

• Chelsea 2, Everton 0
• Brighton 2, West Ham 1
• Newcastle 3, Ipswich 0
• Nottingham Forest 1, Brentford 0
• Southampton 0, Fulham 0
• Wolves 1, Leicester 2
• Arsenal 1, Crystal Palace 1
• Bournemouth 2, Manchester United 0
• Liverpool 3, Tottenham 1
• Manchester City 2, Aston Villa 0

Chelsea`s game against Everton is pivotal, as they face a challenging run-in, including matches against Liverpool and Newcastle, potentially culminating in a fifth-place decider against Nottingham Forest on the final day.

Manchester City`s match against Aston Villa could eliminate Villa from top four contention and possibly European spots altogether. This weekend might also see Liverpool`s Premier League title confirmed.

Gameweek 35

• Manchester City 4, Wolves 1
• Aston Villa 2, Fulham 1
• Brentford 3, Manchester United 1
• Everton 0, Ipswich 1
• Leicester 2, Southampton 1
• West Ham 1, Tottenham 1
• Arsenal 2, Bournemouth 0
• Brighton 2, Newcastle 2
• Chelsea 1, Liverpool 1
• Crystal Palace 1, Nottingham Forest 1

This gameweek could narrow the Champions League race to four teams vying for three spots, or even two teams for three spots if Manchester City`s win over Wolves extends their lead. Newcastle, Chelsea, and Forest all face tough fixtures.

Brighton and Bournemouth could remain in contention with wins against Newcastle and Arsenal respectively, but for teams outside the established top clubs to still be in the Champions League conversation at this stage is already a remarkable achievement. Their chances of sustaining a challenge are diminishing.

Predicted partial table on May 5

Gameweek 36

• Bournemouth 2, Aston Villa 2
• Fulham 1, Everton 0
• Ipswich 1, Brentford 1
• Liverpool 1, Arsenal 2
• Manchester United 1, West Ham 0
• Newcastle 1, Chelsea 1
• Nottingham Forest 1, Leicester 0
• Southampton 0, Manchester City 2
• Tottenham 1, Crystal Palace 2
• Wolves 2, Brighton 1

Newcastle and Chelsea`s match is one of two potential Champions League qualification play-offs in the final rounds. Newcastle are slight favorites, but a positive result for Chelsea would keep their fate in their own hands for a top five spot. Nottingham Forest has opportunities to gain points against Leicester and West Ham, though the latter could be challenging as Forest sometimes struggles when expected to dictate the game.

Gameweek 37

• Arsenal 1, Newcastle 1
• Aston Villa 1, Tottenham 0
• Brentford 1, Fulham 2
• Brighton 2, Liverpool 2
• Chelsea 3, Manchester United 1
• Crystal Palace 1, Wolves 0
• Everton 2, Southampton 0
• Leicester 1, Ipswich 2
• Manchester City 2, Bournemouth 1
• West Ham 1, Nottingham Forest 1

These results could create significant shifts. A draw between Arsenal and Newcastle, while maintaining Newcastle`s bogey team status against Arsenal, might not benefit Newcastle`s Champions League ambitions. Even if Nottingham Forest draws with West Ham, it could set up a situation where Chelsea only needs a draw against Forest on the final day. For Newcastle to overtake Chelsea in this scenario, they would need a significant goal difference swing, which seems unlikely, potentially causing internet uproar.

Gameweek 38

• Bournemouth 2, Leicester 1
• Fulham 1, Manchester City 1
• Ipswich 2, West Ham 2
• Liverpool 3, Crystal Palace 0
• Manchester United 1, Aston Villa 0
• Newcastle 3, Everton 0
• Nottingham Forest 1, Chelsea 2
• Southampton 0, Arsenal 3
• Tottenham 3, Brighton 3
• Wolves 2, Brentford 1

While a draw between Chelsea and Forest is possible, the high stakes and scrutiny might deter any perceived collusion. Newcastle might aim to score heavily early against a relaxed Everton. News of Newcastle`s score could influence Chelsea`s approach, potentially leading them to push for a win, opening counter-attacking opportunities for Nottingham Forest.

This is just one possible scenario, and the Premier League`s unpredictability suggests that the final day will likely feature a decisive clash between two top-five contenders. Expect the unexpected as always in the Premier League.

Predicted final table