PGA Championship: Experts’ Picks and Betting Tips

The 2025 PGA Championship, the second major golf tournament of the year, is scheduled to take place from Thursday to Sunday at Quail Hollow Club.

Our golf experts share their predictions for who will win, and our betting analysts identify potential value bets. Here`s a breakdown of the favorites and other insights ahead of the 2025 PGA Championship.

Experts` Picks

Matt Barrie: Rory McIlroy. I believe players have their `runs,` and Rory is currently in one. After achieving the career Grand Slam, he returns to a course where he has won four times. It`s his territory, and he will win again.

Tory Barron: Justin Thomas. Call it recency bias, but JT is positioned to win the PGA Championship for the third time. Having ended his nearly three-year winless streak with a playoff victory at the RBC Heritage in April and fresh off a runner-up finish at the Truist Championship, he possesses the confidence (and the putting) to perform well at Quail Hollow, the site of his 2017 Wanamaker Trophy win. Disclaimer: If Brooks Koepka wins the one time I don`t pick him, I`m joining LIV.

Michael Collins: Scottie Scheffler. How many times will people underestimate the WORLD #1? His composed demeanor is often mistaken for a lack of killer instinct. The competitor within him will be fiercely motivated, and once again, they will learn.

Jeff Darlington: Justin Thomas. Something significantly improved for Thomas in October 2024. He finished tied for 2nd at the Zozo Championship and has returned to elite form since. He is back at the venue of his first PGA Championship victory, and he will win there again.

Michael Eaves: Rory McIlroy. Finally winning the Masters lifted a significant burden. He might play the most relaxed golf of his career in nearly a decade, and a free-swinging Rory is intimidating to the rest of the field. Moreover, with four prior victories at Quail Hollow, he truly owns that course. Who is ready for Grand Slam discussions?

Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Rory McIlroy. Sometimes, if a pick seems too obvious, it`s the best choice. He has the Masters and career Grand Slam off his back and has been the best golfer globally in 2025. Add a course where he has won four times, which favors distance, and he is the undeniable pick.

Andy North: Shane Lowry. He has been playing exceptionally well, is an excellent driver of the ball, and hits superb iron shots.

Mark Schlabach: Bryson DeChambeau. If the winner needs length off the tee, solid long-iron play, and consistent putting, I`m choosing Bryson. He will want to demonstrate that his disappointing performance on Sunday at the Masters was an anomaly, and he is coming off a victory in the LIV Golf League event in Korea. He has finished in the top six in four of the last five majors, including runner-up at the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club. He is poised to add a Wanamaker Trophy to his two U.S. Open trophies.

Marty Smith: Rory McIlroy. He enters the PGA Championship having already won the two most prestigious tournaments played this year: the Players Championship and the Masters Tournament. Fourteen years of constant questioning and pressure are gone. He has confidence in every aspect of his game and with every club. He possesses mental, emotional, spiritual, and physical freedom.

Now he returns to Quail Hollow, a site where he holds the lowest scoring average in PGA Tour history among 246 players with at least 20 rounds played. Oh, and he has won at Quail Hollow four times.

Curtis Strange: Rory McIlroy over Scottie Scheffler by 1 shot. I always support the Masters champion at the PGA so we can discuss the Grand Slam this year.

Paolo Uggetti: Rory McIlroy. Given Rory`s current play and his recent performance at Quail Hollow, picking him as this week`s winner feels almost too simple, but I cannot bring myself to choose anyone else. Perhaps we are caught up in the moment – he just showed how challenging it is to win one major, let alone two consecutively – but everything about this week aligns perfectly for the player who has clearly been playing the best golf in the world this year.

Scott Van Pelt: Bryson DeChambeau. Quail Hollow is a large course, as the saying goes. This week, it is also a very wet golf course. The advantage provided by DeChambeau`s length will be amplified this week, and I believe he will win.

Betting Roundtable

Who is your outright pick?

Tyler Fulghum, ESPN BET Live host: Xander Schauffele (+2000). It`s difficult to avoid picking McIlroy or Scheffler, but their prices (+500 or worse) are quite high. If I`m looking beyond the top two, I`d consider Schauffele. He possesses the disciplined and well-rounded game suited for a tournament like this, characterized by long distances and deep competition.

David Gordon, ESPN Research: Shane Lowry (+4500). There`s a valid argument that Lowry should be considered near the top of the second tier of players, yet his odds don`t fully reflect this. If it`s not Rory or Xander, I`ll opt for the player currently third in strokes gained: tee to green, who also boasts top-six finishes in two of the last four PGA Championships.

Pamela Maldonado, betting analyst: Rory McIlroy (+475). I know he just won the Masters, but Quail Hollow is a different situation; it is essentially his kingdom. The course perfectly suits his strengths – booming drives and towering long irons – which is why McIlroy has won here four times. He knows every contour of the course, and his playing style is perfectly tailored to this layout. It`s a short price, but when McIlroy is at Quail Hollow, he is defending his throne.

Best Bets for a Top 10 Finish

Tyler Fulghum: Patrick Reed (+550). Except for Bryson DeChambeau, LIV golfers are mostly out of the public eye and mind. This creates potential value on these players in the majors. The other LIV golfer who has performed relatively well in majors besides DeChambeau since moving to LIV is Reed. He secured a third-place finish at Augusta in April and finished tied for 2nd in 2017 when the PGA was last held at Quail Hollow.

David Gordon: Bryson DeChambeau (+140). DeChambeau has accumulated more top-five finishes (three) than any other player in PGA Championships since 2020. His six top-five finishes in majors since 2020 have occurred at different venues, demonstrating his ability to contend regardless of course style. Length off the tee combined with shorter rough has benefited recent winners at Quail Hollow (such as McIlroy and Wyndham Clark). While I think Bryson is a great outright or top-five pick, I`m opting for the safety of a top-10.

Pamela Maldonado: Jon Rahm (+190). Rahm is long off the tee, accurate with his long irons, and doesn`t shy away from a challenging course. Quail Hollow is designed for players who can powerfully navigate the long par 4s and handle the pressure of the Green Mile, qualities Rahm possesses in abundance. Even on an off day, Rahm`s baseline performance can exceed most players` peak. Even when his putting falters, he remains a threat because his approach play consistently creates favorable opportunities.

Top Bets on Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy

Tyler Fulghum: McIlroy top-10 finish, Round 1 (+200). It`s challenging to find an appealing plus-money bet associated with McIlroy`s name, but I will seize this opportunity. McIlroy isn`t typically a fast starter in majors, but this is a course he dominates. Fresh from his win at Augusta, he could begin this week quickly, freely, and comfortably.

David Gordon: McIlroy over Scheffler: tournament matchup (-110). Pam and Tyler have already articulated it perfectly regarding McIlroy. While it feels daunting to bet against a player who just equaled the PGA Tour`s 72-hole scoring record in his most recent start, McIlroy holds the advantage in course knowledge, length, and putting.

Pamela Maldonado: McIlroy top-10 finish, Round 1 (+200). The most difficult accomplishment is complete – he achieved the career Grand Slam. McIlroy arrives at Quail Hollow feeling grounded, composed, and in control. Golf requires mental strength as much as skill, and he possesses clarity and confidence. If he simply plays his natural game without forcing anything, given his comfort level with the course, McIlroy`s mindset will be focused and his game will be methodical.

Favorite Long Shots and Value Bets (100-1 or Longer)

Tyler Fulghum: Tony Finau (+12500). Currently, nothing in Finau`s game strongly suggests he will contend at this event, except for his distance off the tee. However, the price is highly attractive for a player of Finau`s talent level, and the PGA Championship, unlike the other three majors, is the most likely to produce an unexpected first-time winner.

David Gordon: Denny McCarthy (+17500). Finishing tied for sixth at Quail Hollow last year and T-8 the year prior, McCarthy is one of only three players with eight or more rounds at par or better over the past two years at this course (the others being Schauffele and Tommy Fleetwood). His lack of distance off the tee is a concern, but he clearly compensates for it elsewhere when playing at Quail Hollow. His best finish of the season was T-5 at Torrey Pines, one of the longest courses on tour, and I`m taking a chance on that hot putter continuing.

Pamela Maldonado: Keith Mitchell (+11000). His recent form is compelling. Over his last four starts, Mitchell has recorded five consecutive top-20 finishes, including a T-7 at Truist last week, indicating a strong upward trend in consistency. His ball striking has been solid, and he has shown significant gains from tee to green. He has two top-10 finishes at Quail Hollow in his career, so +320 for a top-20 finish seems reasonable, with a small wager on +11000 for added excitement.

Other Notable Betting Opportunities

Gordon: Corey Conners to finish as low Canadian (+165). Conners has won this market in four of the last five majors – the only exception being last year`s Open Championship – and in six of the last eight majors overall. He was the lowest Canadian at the PGA Championship in both instances within that period. His five top-10 finishes on tour this season are surpassed only by Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy. He also finished T-13 and T-8 in the past two years at Quail Hollow.

Maldonado: Justin Thomas (-120) vs. Xander Schauffele (Tournament Matchup). Thomas knows how to win here, and while Schauffele possesses the skills to contend, he doesn`t quite match up in terms of approach play. Thomas`s iron play is stronger, giving him an advantage on a course that rewards precise iron shots. In a battle of ball striking, JT`s consistency from tee to green makes the crucial difference.