The Boston Celtics, after attempting 61 three-pointers in a season opener, sparked a league-wide debate about the prevalence of long-range shots in basketball. This game, tying for the second-most attempts in a regular NBA game, ignited discussions about whether there are too many 3-pointers being taken.
While the average number of 3-point attempts had stabilized around 35 per game in recent years, already a significant increase from 22.4 a decade prior, this season has seen a further rise to 37.5 attempts per game. Coupled with early-season dips in national TV ratings, the increased reliance on 3-pointers became a focal point of concern.
However, NBA analysis suggests that fans generally hold a positive view of the current NBA style of play, including the volume of 3-point shots. Therefore, significant rule changes addressing this trend are unlikely in the near future.
Despite this general acceptance, Daryl Morey, a key figure in the 3-point revolution and president of basketball operations for the Philadelphia 76ers, voiced concerns at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. He suggested that the game might be negatively impacted by the over-reliance on the 3-pointer.
Let`s delve into the data surrounding 3-point shots, Morey`s argument about their excessive value, and fan sentiment regarding the current state of the game.
The Celtics and the Narrative Around 3-Pointers
A year prior, the effectiveness of prioritizing 3-pointers wasn`t as clear-cut for NBA teams. While teams had already capitalized on easy opportunities to convert 2-point shots into more valuable 3-point attempts, Morey`s Houston Rockets had previously demonstrated the potential of heavily relying on 3-pointers as a strategic advantage.
Between 2004-05 and 2018-19, teams attempting the most 3-pointers in a game had a 52% win rate. However, this trend reversed in the 2023-24 season, with teams shooting more 3s winning only 48% of the time.
But this shifted again in the 2024 playoffs. Teams attempting more 3-pointers achieved a .646 winning percentage, and the NBA Finals featured the two teams with the highest 3-point attempt rates during the regular season, with Boston defeating Dallas.
The Celtics` opening night game, where they tied the NBA record with 29 made 3-pointers, highlighted the increasing emphasis on long-range shooting and fueled the ongoing discussion.
NBA executive Evan Wasch noted that this particular Celtics game might have been a catalyst for the widespread discussion about 3-pointers, sustaining the narrative for months afterward.
Coinciding with lower national TV viewership in the season`s initial months, the 3-point trend became a convenient explanation for the ratings decline. Despite a lack of direct evidence, the increase in 3-point attempts was often cited as a reason for viewership issues.
Wasch explained that this narrative gained traction, potentially influencing fan perception of the game. NBA surveys and social media analysis indicated growing fan frustration with the number of 3-pointers and the overall style of play as the season progressed.
While acknowledging the increased volume of 3-pointers, Wasch suggests that fan perception might be shaped by the ongoing conversation itself. Regardless, the data confirms a resurgence in 3-point attempts after a period of apparent stabilization, and Morey believes he understands the underlying cause.
Rethinking the 3-Point Shot: Is it Detrimental to the Game?
Morey`s call for NBA adjustments to reduce 3-point volume, made at a panel titled “Have the nerds ruined basketball?”, is notable considering his pioneering role in the 3-point revolution. Apart from Stephen Curry, Morey is arguably the most influential figure in the increasing rate of 3-point attempts, having designed the Houston Rockets` offense to prioritize long-range shots to an unprecedented degree.
Originating with their G League affiliate, Houston implemented a strategy of minimizing 2-point attempts outside the paint while maintaining a fast pace. The Rockets were the first team to attempt more 3-pointers than 2-pointers, achieving a franchise-best 65 wins in 2017-18. Their style, heavily associated with Morey, became known as “Moreyball.”
Morey`s concern isn`t necessarily with the current 3-point rate itself, but rather with the fundamental game design.
He argued that the significant scoring advantage of the 3-pointer was initially intended to incentivize long-range shooting, particularly when players and coaches were less inclined to take those shots due to lower accuracy.
It took until the 1986-87 season, the 3-pointer`s eighth year, for the NBA`s collective 3-point percentage to exceed 30%. It took another six years, reaching 1992-93, for the league`s 3-point accuracy to make the average attempt worth more than one point in value.
Currently, with players shooting around 36% on 3-pointers, each attempt yields approximately 1.07 points. To match this value with 2-pointers, players would need to shoot at 53.5%. This disparity explains Morey`s strategy of discouraging 2-pointers outside the paint, where the league`s average accuracy is 42%, a much smaller advantage over 3-point accuracy than the scoring difference justifies.
Morey contends that if open mid-range shots from skilled players are less valuable than contested, off-the-dribble 3-pointers, it`s detrimental to the game. He believes the league office should address this imbalance because teams will naturally optimize their strategies based on point value.
However, most league executives aren`t overly concerned with the volume of 3-pointers. Their primary focus remains on building winning teams, rather than prioritizing a specific aesthetic style of play.
Morey acknowledges that teams and analysts are simply doing their jobs by focusing on winning. However, he reiterates that the 3-point shot, introduced long ago with a disproportionate 50% point advantage, is now excessively valuable and potentially “breaks the game” by distorting offensive strategies.
Wasch, representing the NBA`s perspective, countered that game design should primarily serve the goal of entertaining fans. He emphasized that current NBA research indicates fans generally have a positive view of the prevalence of long-range shooting.
NBA`s Current Stance: No Problem with 3-Pointers (Yet)
NBA Commissioner Adam Silver has acknowledged the possibility of adjustments to the game`s style of play in response to the 3-point discussion.
Silver mentioned considering changes to the 3-point line in the past. However, he doesn`t believe moving the line is the immediate solution, suggesting it might not increase mid-range shots but instead lead to more congested play near the basket.
He also noted a potential trend toward “cookie-cutter” offenses, where teams increasingly emulate each other. This aspect of offensive similarity is something the league is monitoring.
By the All-Star Game, Silver expressed a more optimistic outlook on the current state of NBA basketball.
He affirmed ongoing attention to the issue and a commitment to continued evaluation. However, he stated his satisfaction with the game`s current state.
Wasch`s summary of NBA fan research echoed this sentiment.
He stated that fan feedback is generally positive. Fans appreciate the “3-point revolution,” the fast-paced, spacious style of play, the athleticism of players, and scoring opportunities around the basket. He highlighted numerous positive trends in fan perception.
He acknowledged the open question of whether the league might be approaching a point of “too many” 3-pointers, potentially alienating some fans. However, he doesn`t believe there`s a fundamental flaw in the game`s design, as the primary goal is to deliver an engaging product for fans.
League surveys indicate younger fans are even more positive about the current style of play and 3-point volume than older fans, although the difference isn`t statistically significant. However, the prevailing narrative in media discussions doesn`t always align with the statistical reality.
Celtics VP Mike Zarren expressed frustration with the media portrayal of teams playing identically due to 3-point reliance. He pointed out that even the team with the lowest 3-point attempts this season would have been a league leader just a decade ago.
Zarren argued that the dominant media narrative of uniform “jacking 3s” style is inaccurate. He emphasized that the discussion is often misrepresenting the reality of NBA gameplay.
Potential for Even More 3-Pointers in the Future
Wasch indicated that NBA analysis of play type variation across teams shows no decrease in diversity compared to previous seasons. The range in 3-point attempt rates between teams like Boston and Denver remains consistent with historical averages. The shift is in the overall average, not the distribution across teams.
Interestingly, the Celtics` 3-point attempt rate has slightly decreased since the beginning of the season. Initially attempting 51.3 3-pointers per game (56% of total shots), they`ve since reduced it to 46.5 per game (52% of shots).
Nevertheless, the Celtics` playoff performance, as a likely top seed, will serve as a significant case study regarding the optimal 3-point volume – even if they were to lose to a team like the Cleveland Cavaliers, who are also high in 3-point attempt rate.
Conversely, a strong playoff run by the Denver Nuggets, a team with a highly efficient offense but a lower 3-point attempt rate, could remind everyone that diverse offensive approaches can still be successful.
Regardless, the trend suggests that 3-point attempts are more likely to increase further. Younger players are driving this increase, particularly with off-the-dribble 3-pointers. Victor Wembanyama, for example, attempts nearly nine 3-pointers per game in his second season, surpassing even Ray Allen`s highest season average.
The NBA may eventually reach a point where almost all long 2-point shots are replaced by 3-pointers. However, the idea that teams are sacrificing layups and dunks for 3-pointers is a misunderstanding of the data. The proportion of shots taken in the paint has remained relatively constant in recent years, and even slightly increased in the last three seasons.
Despite the expectation that defenses will eventually prioritize 3-point prevention, making mid-range shots more valuable, the primary method other leagues have used to reduce 3-point rates is moving the 3-point line further back.
For example, NCAA Division I men`s basketball had a higher percentage of 3-pointers compared to total shots than the NBA until they moved the line back to FIBA distances in 2019-20. This change led to a decrease in 3-point shot percentage in college basketball, while the NBA continues to see increasing rates.
While 3-point attempts might eventually constitute half of all shots in the NBA, current rates are not perceived as a problem by the league.
Wasch concluded that the NBA acts decisively when data clearly indicates a need for change. However, regarding 3-point volume, the current assessment is that drastic action isn`t necessary, and there`s no consensus among stakeholders that any changes are needed at all.
