The start of the NBA`s conference semifinals has been truly unprecedented in league history. For the first time ever, road teams secured victory in all four Game 1 matchups. This was followed by road wins in both Eastern Conference Game 2s as well.
This unexpected turn of events is particularly striking given the dominant regular seasons enjoyed by the top two teams in the East. The Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics each won over 60 games, finishing with an average of 12 more victories than their lower-seeded opponents, the Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks.
As the Eastern Conference series take a break before resuming Friday – with Indiana and New York holding commanding 2-0 leads heading into Games 3 and 4 on their home courts – it`s worth examining the reasons behind the favorites` struggles and what their chances are of recovering to achieve the highly anticipated East Finals showdown that seemed all but guaranteed just a week ago.
Cavs-Pacers: `Spida` needs offensive support, fast
Similar to three of the four Game 1 road victories, Indiana`s win in the opening game was significantly influenced by exceptional 3-point shooting. The Pacers hit 19 of 36 attempts (53%) from beyond the arc, while the Cavaliers, who finished second in 3-point percentage during the regular season, made just 9 of 38 shots (24%).
Unlike other series, a lack of rest wasn`t a primary factor here, as Indiana concluded its five-game series win over the Milwaukee Bucks just one day after Cleveland completed its sweep of the Miami Heat.
The shooting discrepancy narrowed somewhat in Game 2, with the Pacers shooting 39% from three compared to the Cavaliers` 28%. Despite missing starter Darius Garland, recently named Defensive Player of the Year Evan Mobley, and key reserve De`Andre Hunter, Cleveland appeared poised to tie the series. They held a 17-point lead late in the third quarter and a seven-point lead before collapsing. The final minute saw two Cavaliers turnovers and two Indiana offensive rebounds off missed free throws, setting the stage for Tyrese Haliburton`s game-winning play.
However, Indiana`s position might not be as secure as it appears. Of the four higher-seeded teams since 2021 who have trailed 2-0 on their home court, three managed to fight back and force a Game 7. Notably, two of those teams – the Celtics in the 2023 conference finals and the Denver Nuggets against the Minnesota Timberwolves last year – ultimately lost the decisive Game 7 at home.
Naturally, the Cavaliers` difficult situation makes Friday`s Game 3 a critical must-win, placing a spotlight on Cleveland`s injury status. Hunter and Mobley both suffered their injuries in the fourth quarter of Game 1, while Garland has now missed the last four games, including games from the first round.
If Donovan Mitchell delivers another heroic performance like he did for the first 47 minutes of Game 2, Cleveland is certainly capable of winning without the injured players. However, the potential return of Mobley is particularly crucial. Although Indiana`s scoring inside the arc cooled slightly on Tuesday, they still scored 50 points in the paint – six more than Cleveland had allowed in any other playoff game this year, with 26 of those coming in the fourth quarter alone.
Hunter`s absence is ill-timed as he would be the logical player to step into the lineup in place of Mobley. Without Hunter, the Cavaliers were limited to only two players taller than 6-foot-5: starting center Jarrett Allen and fill-in power forward Dean Wade. This left Cleveland`s bench unit significantly undersized.
While the Cavaliers have demonstrated the ability to win without Garland, his return would significantly ease the offensive burden on Mitchell. According to Stathead.com data compiled by Dan Feldman of the `Dunc`d On Basketball` podcast, Mitchell`s Game 2 performance was just the sixth instance in their database of a player having a usage rate of at least half his team`s plays in a playoff game with 20 or more shot attempts. This statistic indicates that, on average, every other Cleveland possession with Mitchell on the court ended with him either shooting, turning the ball over, or attempting free throws. Given this immense responsibility, it`s understandable that Mitchell showed signs of fatigue late in the game.
From a pure matchup perspective, the Pacers` two initial wins do not suggest they would be favored over a fully healthy Cavaliers team on a neutral court.
However, Indiana only needs to win two more games out of the remaining five, three of which will be played on their home floor. The timeline for Cleveland`s injured players to return remains uncertain. As a result, the Pacers are now clearly favored to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals.
Celtics-Knicks: How outside shooting is failing the defending champs
As mentioned earlier, the Celtics have faced a 2-0 deficit at home before. They famously trailed the Miami Heat 3-0 in 2023 before rallying to force a Game 7, which they ultimately lost at home. In fact, this is the fourth time an Al Horford-era Celtics team has found itself down 2-0 at home, having previously happened against both the Chicago Bulls (a series they won) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (a five-game loss as underdogs entering the series) in 2017.
In some ways, this isn`t entirely surprising. Over the past four playoffs, including their run to the 2022 Finals and their strong performance in recent postseasons, Boston has performed dramatically better away from TD Garden. They hold a 22-9 (.710) record in road playoff games during this period, securing at least one road win in all 12 series played so far. No other team has a road playoff record more than three games above .500 in that same timeframe.
Conversely, Boston is just 23-16 at home over the past four postseasons. Only the Heat (11 home losses) have lost double-digit home playoff games in this span, although it`s worth noting the Celtics have played significantly more playoff games than any other team over the last four years.
Given this context, Boston`s Game 1 loss at home to a team they swept 4-0 during a dominant regular season seemed initially to be little cause for major concern. Considering they missed a playoff-record 45 3-pointers in that game, the fact that they even managed to force overtime could be seen as impressive.
However, defying the typical bounce-back expectation, their poor outside shooting woes persisted into Game 2. Boston took fewer 3-pointers (40 out of 94 total shots, down from 60 of 97 in Game 1) but once again connected at a dismal 25% clip. The Celtics are only the second team in the last six years to shoot 25% or worse from three in the first two games of a playoff series, joining the 2021 Atlanta Hawks in their Eastern Conference Finals loss to the Bucks.
To some extent, the intense focus on Boston`s missed 3-pointers might be slightly overstated, simply because those shots are tracked separately in the box score. The Celtics actually shot even worse (8 of 33, 24%) on 2-point attempts taken outside the restricted area – without receiving the benefit of the extra point for the shots they did make.
Several of these misses came from Jayson Tatum, who went 0-of-5 on non-paint 2s. Tatum and Jaylen Brown missed all five of the non-paint 2s they attempted in the fourth quarter as Boston seemed to revert to isolation plays (“hero ball”) while New York closed the gap. Only eight of the Celtics` 24 shots in the final period were assisted opportunities, according to tracking data.
Despite a reputation for struggling in close games, the Celtics actually boasted the NBA`s third-best offensive rating in clutch situations this season (defined as games within five points in the final five minutes or overtime). Their plus-47 net rating in the clutch during their recent playoff success further highlights their capability in tight moments.
Because the Celtics are relatively healthy – with the exception of center Kristaps Porzingis` ongoing illness – and have consistently controlled the first three quarters of both games with a combined plus-21 scoring differential during that span, they are in arguably the best possible position a team can be in when trailing a home series 2-0. Astonishingly, Boston still maintains the best odds of winning the Eastern Conference according to ESPN BET.
However, the reigning champions head to New York without momentum and with very little room for error.
