The second round of the NBA playoffs has been packed with unexpected turns and dramatic finishes, including road teams securing victories, thrilling comeback efforts, and intense overtime contests. Unfortunately, the postseason has also been marred by significant injuries to some of the league`s brightest talents.
The Indiana Pacers recently became the first team to secure their spot in the conference finals. Three other teams are expected to join them soon.
As the playoffs advance, with the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors both facing critical elimination games, it`s worth examining the key storylines and insights from the second round so far, including which recent champion faces a less daunting path forward.
Celtics vs. Warriors: Who is Better Positioned for a 3-1 Comeback?
At this stage of the postseason, the situations for the Celtics and Warriors share several similarities. Both teams entered the playoffs with championship aspirations but are now just one loss away from elimination. Adding to their challenges, both teams` leading scorers are currently sidelined with leg injuries.
The question is, which team has a greater likelihood of becoming the 14th team in NBA history, and the first since the 2020 Denver Nuggets, to successfully overturn a 3-1 series deficit?
Boston`s bid for a title defense suffered a severe blow when Jayson Tatum underwent surgery for a torn Achilles tendon sustained in their recent loss.
For the Warriors, the potential return of Stephen Curry from a strained hamstring offers a glimmer of hope during this series. However, successfully executing this comeback formula is challenging: they must win a road Game 5 against the Minnesota Timberwolves without him, and then hope Curry`s presence could be enough to win Games 6 and 7. Curry`s return is far from guaranteed, as hamstring issues can linger. His demanding style of play, involving constant motion and sharp cuts, also increases the risk of re-injury if he returns prematurely.
Without Curry, Golden State`s offense significantly lacks firepower. Their offensive rating drops considerably when he`s off the court, placing them among the bottom teams in the league offensively in those minutes. Despite Jimmy Butler III`s efforts, their playoff offensive rating without Curry has been even worse.
The Celtics possess more overall talent beyond Tatum, and they managed a positive net rating even without him during the regular season, albeit slightly lower than with him. This gap has widened in the playoffs due to other core players sustaining injuries, making the team more reliant on Tatum`s individual performance. Sam Hauser has been out since Game 1, and Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis are not playing at full health.
These injuries will hinder any comeback hopes, but the Celtics` potential without Tatum is still arguably higher than the Warriors` without Curry. Boston also holds the advantage of hosting a potential Game 7, whereas Golden State would need to win on the road.
Their opponents also present contrasting pictures. The Timberwolves have appeared dominant for long stretches, seemingly overpowering the older Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers squads. The Knicks, on the other hand, have relied heavily on succeeding in `clutch time,` with many of their playoff wins decided in the final minutes or overtime. While they`ve excelled late in games, their struggles in earlier quarters raise questions about the sustainability of this approach, potentially offering the Celtics an opportunity even with their main late-game option sidelined.
Predictive models lean slightly towards Boston. ESPN`s Basketball Power Index assigns the Celtics a 7% chance to advance to the conference finals, compared to 5% for the Warriors.
Zone Defenses Make a Postseason Resurgence
Zone defenses are not a common staple in the NBA; teams predominantly play man-to-man defense during the regular season. Only the Miami Heat significantly deviated, using zone around 12% of the time.
However, several teams facing pressure in the playoffs have incorporated zone defenses more frequently this spring. As a result, the overall usage of zone across the league this postseason is reportedly the highest on record.
The Denver Nuggets provide a prime example. Under coach Michael Malone, Denver rarely used zone extensively in playoff games. However, since David Adelman took over as coach in April, the Nuggets have dramatically increased their zone usage against the Thunder, culminating in one game with 55 zone possessions – the second-highest recorded total in the tracking era (since 2013-14) for a playoff team.
This tactical shift has generally worked well. Oklahoma City`s offense has been less efficient against Denver`s zone, which helps explain the scoring difficulties faced by a team that ranked third in offensive rating during the regular season.
Cleveland also turned to zone defense in this round. They didn`t need it during their first-round sweep but adopted a swarming 3-2 zone with Defensive Player of the Year Evan Mobley at the top when down 2-0 to the Pacers. This proved beneficial in a Game 3 victory, severely limiting Indiana`s points per zone possession.
Other teams like the Milwaukee Bucks, Houston Rockets, and Warriors have also used zone defenses in stretches. Overall, zones have demonstrated better defensive efficiency compared to man defenses in the half court this postseason. Employing flashes of zone has served as an effective change of pace, particularly for defenses that have been outmatched.
Nevertheless, zones are not foolproof. Last year, zone defenses in the playoffs were less effective than man-to-man. This season, the Indiana Pacers have shown their ability to dismantle zones.
Elite offenses like Indiana`s can exploit the gaps in any zone scheme. When Cleveland attempted to repeat their Game 3 zone success, the Pacers were prepared. They were highly effective against Cleveland`s zone, forcing the Cavaliers to abandon the strategy. So far, no defense has managed to consistently slow down the Pacers` potent offense.
Jonathan Kuminga is Increasing His Market Value
Jonathan Kuminga, the No. 7 pick in the 2021 draft, is nearing restricted free agency this summer, meaning Golden State can match any offer he receives. Prior to the last week, it seemed he might have fallen out of favor with coach Steve Kerr, potentially jeopardizing his chance at a lucrative contract this offseason.
Kuminga did not play in key late-season games or the first round against the Rockets, where his shooting was also poor when he did play.
However, Stephen Curry`s hamstring injury compelled Kerr to turn to Kuminga for an offensive spark. The 22-year-old forward has capitalized on this renewed opportunity, performing well even as the team struggled against Minnesota`s elite defense. Over a three-game stretch, Kuminga averaged nearly 24 points on 60% shooting, consistently getting to the free-throw line.
He has emerged as Golden State`s most consistent offensive threat in this series, demonstrating that he warrants a larger role next season. Whether he remains with the Warriors or signs with a rival team seeking his potential, Kuminga`s playoff performance has likely secured him a significant contract offer.
Ty Jerome is Facing a Hit to His Free Agency Stock
In contrast to Kuminga, Ty Jerome of Cleveland had a standout regular season and first round. As a combo guard coming off the bench for the top seed in the East, Jerome posted solid scoring numbers and shot an excellent percentage from three-point range, earning a high finish in Sixth Man of the Year voting. His strong play continued into the first round.
Jerome is set to become an unrestricted free agent this summer, and his performance had potentially positioned him for a contract similar to others in his role. However, his struggles against the Indiana Pacers have likely diminished that possibility.
With Darius Garland injured, Jerome had a high-volume but inefficient scoring game in Game 1, then shot poorly in Game 2 and was defensively responsible for the Pacers` game-winning shot. His difficulties continued into Game 3, where he shot poorly again, leading to significantly reduced minutes. By Game 5, he saw minimal playing time until the second half.
Facing potential financial constraints next season, the Cavaliers might now question the value of re-signing Jerome if he struggles to contribute in crucial playoff games. Furthermore, his difficulties under postseason pressure could deter other teams who might otherwise have been interested in giving him a larger role.
OKC`s Strategic Use of Alex Caruso is Paying Dividends
Finally, let`s look closer at one of the league`s premier role players. Alex Caruso is not only an elite defender compared to his peers; some advanced metrics rank him among the best defenders of the 21st century. According to one metric (xRAPM), Caruso ranks exceptionally high among valuable defenders in the play-by-play era, placed alongside multiple Defensive Player of the Year winners, and is one of the few guards in the top tier.
The Thunder recognized Caruso`s value as a proven playoff performer when they acquired him. While he may not put up flashy statistics, his defensive impact and championship experience make him a much better fit for their playoff aspirations than the player he was traded for.
Caruso`s primary challenge has been his injury history, often attributed to his high-effort, physical style of play. To mitigate this, the Thunder implemented a personalized load management plan for him this season, resulting in his lowest minute average since 2018-19. He was given frequent rest days, especially as he wasn`t subject to the league`s player participation policy for All-Stars.
He rarely played more than 27 minutes in any regular season game, a stark contrast to his minutes played in previous seasons with other teams.
Coach Mark Daigneault has continued to conserve Caruso`s minutes during the playoffs, limiting his exposure in games where the outcome seems decided early. His physical intensity is a valuable resource, best saved for when it`s needed most.
However, in competitive games, Caruso looks fresh and impactful, playing more minutes and excelling. He generated crucial turnovers in a comeback win, delivered a strong all-around performance in another game, and helped stabilize the team on both ends in a must-win situation.
The Thunder have even used a key closing lineup featuring Caruso alongside their core players, a unit that didn`t play together in the regular season but might be the most effective at Daigneault`s disposal. Statistical analysis suggests Caruso has been among the most valuable players per minute in the playoffs this year. The Thunder`s strong net rating with him on the floor highlights his significant positive impact, also reflecting the impressive contributions from other bench players.
