There are 93 days until NBA free agency begins on June 30th, which is a significant amount of time in the NBA, especially considering it includes the end of the regular season, the NBA draft lottery, and the entire playoff run.
Despite the uncertainty before summer, NBA teams are actively preparing. Front offices are currently focused on evaluating college prospects in March Madness and planning for free agency and potential trades.
While major superstar changes might be unlikely, many interesting questions will be addressed. This week`s NBA analysis will delve into the center market in the offseason, the Minnesota Timberwolves` strategies for the summer, and complex decisions regarding restricted free agents.
What`s happening in Minnesota this summer?
Bontemps: Despite being over the second luxury tax apron, the Minnesota Timberwolves are a key team to watch this summer due to their potential free agents. Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Naz Reid, and Julius Randle could all become free agents, presenting interesting decisions for Minnesota.
Alexander-Walker, on a value contract for the past seasons, will enter free agency. Reid and Randle have player options. These situations will require careful management by Minnesota.
Windhorst: Six weeks ago, Marc Lore and Alex Rodriguez won their arbitration case against Glen Taylor for the Timberwolves ownership. They claimed to have $950 million in escrow for the sale. However, there has been no further progress.
The NBA board of governors meeting passed without a vote on the sale, the final step. Commissioner Adam Silver stated Taylor is considering options, including appealing the arbitration and continuing talks with Lore and Rodriguez.
This is crucial as the Timberwolves have $145 million in salaries committed for next season before re-signing any free agents. Re-signing Alexander-Walker, Reid, and Randle while staying under the $207 million second apron will be challenging and depends on the ownership`s financial commitment. The team`s substantial luxury tax bill this season highlights this financial tension.
Minnesota also faces uncertainty with team president Tim Connelly, who has an opt-out clause this summer due to the ownership situation. Lore intends to extend Connelly`s contract once he gains control, but Connelly`s decision remains pending.
Bontemps: Despite ownership and front office uncertainties, decisions regarding Alexander-Walker, Reid, and Randle must proceed.
Alexander-Walker is expected to secure a significant contract as he enters his prime. Having improved his career in Minnesota with consistent shooting and defense, he`s valued around the full midlevel exception (approximately $60 million over four years).
Reid and Randle are likely to remain with Minnesota. They might opt into their contracts and extend (Reid at $15 million, Randle at $29 million) or opt out for new deals.
What about other major player options?
Windhorst: Three veteran Hall of Famers have notable player options: LeBron James, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving.
James could opt into his $53 million option or sign another one-year max deal for flexibility. Last summer, he considered taking less to help the Lakers improve the roster but ultimately took the full amount. With Luka Doncic joining the team, James might reconsider this.
If James opts in or re-signs similarly, the Lakers will be slightly into the luxury tax with the taxpayer midlevel exception. A discount from James could provide flexibility and potentially the full midlevel exception, opening trade possibilities using expiring contracts and draft assets.
Bontemps: Irving has a similar situation with a $42.9 million player option with the Dallas Mavericks. Despite a recent ACL tear expected to sideline him for much of next season, the Mavericks have indicated he`s part of their future.
The question is the structure of his new deal as Dallas needs to manage luxury tax and replace his scoring during his absence. If Irving opts in, the Mavericks are already a luxury tax team with limited proven ball handlers to cover for Irving`s injury.
Windhorst: In 2021, Harden declined a $160 million extension from the Nets and has been pursuing a similar contract since. He`s taken pay cuts in Philadelphia and with the Clippers on short-term deals.
Last year, Harden bet on himself with a two-year, $70 million deal and is likely to opt out after making the All-Star team. The Clippers, aiming for 2026 cap space, might need a new plan for Harden, who will be 36. Norman Powell`s contract situation might also necessitate spending.
What about the rest of the free agent centers?
Bontemps: Besides Naz Reid, Brook Lopez and Myles Turner are key free agent centers. Milwaukee and Indiana face financial constraints affecting Lopez and Turner.
If Portis, Connaughton, and Porter Jr. opt into their Milwaukee contracts, the Bucks have over $155 million committed to six players, limiting their ability to retain Lopez while staying under the luxury tax. Indiana faces a similar situation with Turner.
Windhorst: Sources say the Pacers want to keep Turner, but they are projected to be below the luxury tax without him. Turner will seek a raise from his $19.9 million salary. Indiana, avoiding the luxury tax since 2005, will need to negotiate to keep Turner within budget.
Bontemps: However, the center market is currently weak. Few teams have significant cap space and are targeting veteran centers. Lopez and Turner`s leverage might be limited to accepting the midlevel exception from another team, a pay cut. This could lead to tougher negotiations with Indiana and Milwaukee as new CBA rules restrict spending.
What about the restricted free agents?
Windhorst: It`s a challenging year for restricted free agents.
A veteran agent noted only Brooklyn has significant cap space and might prefer a slow rebuild, limiting spending. This agent stated they`ve “never seen a free agency where only one team has real cap space,” calling it a difficult situation for free agents.
The Nets are expected to have $45-$60 million in cap space, potentially more if they release players, but may not want more. Having regained draft picks, they are focused on rebuilding through next year.
An executive suggests the Nets will likely use their space for trades, not signings, maintaining flexibility.
Without Brooklyn aggressively pursuing free agents, restricted free agents like Josh Giddey, Jonathan Kuminga, and Santi Aldama have limited leverage, including Nets` Cam Thomas.
A prominent agent described it as “no leverage,” preparing clients for a “free agent recession.” Next year`s rising cap and teams adjusting to new spending rules might improve the market.
Bontemps: Kuminga is the most interesting restricted free agent. Despite trade rumors for Kevin Durant, the Warriors value him. However, his fit with Curry, Butler, and Green is questionable due to perimeter shooting concerns, potentially complicating a large contract offer after extension talks failed.
Windhorst: Giddey`s situation is noteworthy. His role increased after trades and injuries, averaging 20.9 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 7.7 assists since February 1st, compared to fewer minutes and 11.5 points before. However, the Bulls` large contract for Patrick Williams, who underperformed, might affect Giddey`s negotiations due to potential financial constraints.
