The NBA`s conference semifinals represent a significant increase in both the stakes and the quality of competition. At this stage, with the playoff field narrowed down to eight teams, each remaining contender possesses a legitimate opportunity to win the championship. This was highlighted by the opening days of the second round, where lower-seeded road teams secured victories against higher-seeded opponents, including the No. 1 Cleveland Cavaliers, No. 2 Boston Celtics, and No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder in their respective Game 1s.
With the ultimate prize now clearly in sight, let`s explore what each of the remaining teams would need to do to lift the Larry O`Brien Trophy in June. What strengths must they leverage? What weaknesses do they need to minimize? And which matchups should they target or try to avoid?
Here is an analysis of how each team, ordered by their title odds according to ESPN`s Basketball Power Index (BPI), can achieve victory in the 2025 NBA championship.
Oklahoma City Thunder
BPI Title Odds: 39.9%
Statistical models rate the Thunder as strong favorites for the title, and understandably so. Oklahoma City achieved an NBA record point differential (+12.9 per game), boasts likely MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and features one of the league`s top defenses. However, their path to a championship might be more challenging than their regular-season performance suggests. Navigating a tough playoff bracket presents difficulties; in the regular season, they split games with Denver and Minnesota (2-2 against each) and lost the series to Golden State (1-2). They also have less playoff experience compared to their Western Conference rivals, evident in a late-game collapse in Game 1 against Denver.
For the Thunder to maximize their chances of winning their first championship since 1979, their stars need to perform better moving forward. Gilgeous-Alexander is currently in a shooting slump in the playoffs (45% effective field goal percentage), a significant drop from his outstanding regular season (57%). His key teammates also struggled in Game 1, with Jalen Williams shooting poorly and Chet Holmgren missing critical late-game free throws. The Thunder`s second-round exit last season against Dallas was partly due to the supporting cast failing to capitalize when defenses focused on SGA. Williams and Holmgren must step up to prove they are ready to be championship-level secondary options.
Oklahoma City also needs to improve its rebounding. While they acquired Isaiah Hartenstein to address the size issues exposed by Dallas last postseason, Denver still managed 21 offensive rebounds in Game 1. Despite the Game 1 setback, the Thunder remain the best team on paper. Their challenge now is to translate that potential into a deep playoff run and a championship.
Indiana Pacers
BPI Title Odds: 12.9%
The Pacers have played like an elite NBA team for several months, finishing the regular season strong and maintaining that high level in the playoffs. They easily defeated the Bucks and took control of their second-round series by winning two games on Cleveland`s home court. Indiana`s strong performance coincided with the return of key role players Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith from injury. Their starting lineup, featuring these two alongside Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, and Myles Turner, has posted excellent net ratings in both the regular season and the playoffs.
Indiana`s core group possesses complementary skills, including shooting, playmaking, pace, and perimeter defense. Coach Rick Carlisle also has strong bench support from players like T.J. McConnell, Bennedict Mathurin, and Obi Toppin, who have provided multiple double-figure scoring performances in the playoffs. Crucially, Indiana understands its identity, enabling them to control game tempo and disrupt opponents` rhythm. Led by Haliburton, the Pacers consistently generate quality shots and commit few turnovers, establishing a solid offensive foundation each game.
Their defense has also seen significant improvement compared to last season, when defensive struggles hindered their ability to challenge Boston in the conference finals. This season, Indiana demonstrates much better balance on both ends of the court, making them a more complete and dangerous playoff team.
Boston Celtics
BPI Title Odds: 11.9%
Nine Celtics players who saw significant minutes last postseason are still with the team this spring, suggesting a continuity of a successful formula. Coach Joe Mazzulla`s rotation remains largely unchanged from the group that went 16-3 en route to the 2024 title. Boston enjoys a mathematical advantage in every game due to their league-leading volume and accuracy of 3-point shooting. They were one of only two teams, alongside the Thunder, to rank in the top five for both offensive and defensive rating this season. Beyond their system, Boston relies on immense talent, featuring five elite starters and high-level role players like Al Horford and Payton Pritchard.
With Giannis Antetokounmpo`s Bucks eliminated, Jayson Tatum has a strong claim as the top remaining player in the Eastern Conference playoffs. Tatum appears to have elevated his game since winning a ring in 2024. After missing one game, he closed the first-round series against Orlando with dominant scoring performances, seemingly scoring at will against a top defense. Even after dropping Game 1 against the New York Knicks, Boston remains a heavy favorite to advance. They swept the regular-season series against New York and were impacted by unusually poor shooting luck in Game 1. Data suggested their expected effective field goal percentage based on shot quality was significantly higher, implying they left many points on the board.
Put simply, the Celtics` shooting is likely to improve. When it does, they will be taking a major step toward potentially becoming the first team since the Kevin Durant-era Warriors to repeat as champions.
Denver Nuggets
BPI Title Odds: 10.5%
Nikola Jokic is widely considered the best player in the world, and the core strategy that led the Nuggets to the 2023 championship is still effective, as demonstrated by his historic performance in Game 1 against Oklahoma City. However, Jokic cannot win alone, and for Denver to secure their second title in three years, his supporting cast must consistently perform. So far, this is happening; Aaron Gordon has hit crucial shots, and Jamal Murray delivered an exceptionally efficient 43-point game in the first round.
Denver`s offense is as potent as ever when their key players are on the court. The Murray-Jokic pick-and-roll remains incredibly difficult to defend, producing a high points-per-play rate in the postseason. The Nuggets` starting lineup has a positive net rating, and lineups featuring Russell Westbrook have also been effective. A significant challenge for the Nuggets as the playoffs progress will be fatigue due to a relatively shallow rotation and a demanding seven-game first-round series before facing the Thunder.
Despite potential fatigue, the 2023 champions haven`t shown signs of slowing down offensively; they scored 71 points in the second half of Game 1 against OKC. Their regular-season performance against the Thunder also showed their offensive ceiling, with Jokic and Murray combining for high scoring and the team hitting 3-pointers at a high clip. While they won`t shoot that well every night, they have the capability to torch even the league`s best defenses. If Denver can get past Oklahoma City, they are capable of beating any opponent. Their path would be eased if the Warriors were to defeat the Timberwolves on the other side of the bracket, as Minnesota dominated Denver in their regular-season matchups and eliminated them last postseason.
Golden State Warriors
BPI Title Odds: 10.5%
The Warriors possess the most extensive high-level playoff experience among the remaining teams, with Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Kevon Looney each holding multiple championships. Coach Steve Kerr adds further championship pedigree from both his playing and coaching careers. Although Jimmy Butler III doesn`t have a ring, he has been the centerpiece of two unexpected Finals teams, adding to the team`s proven playoff leadership.
To win another championship, Golden State must first navigate Stephen Curry`s absence due to a hamstring injury, which is expected to keep him out for at least a week. The hope is that Butler can take on the primary scoring responsibility, supported by contributions from players like Buddy Hield, Brandin Podziemski, and Moses Moody. The team`s defense has been a major strength since the All-Star break, anchored by the Butler-Green pairing, which was effective in the first round against Houston and in Game 1 against Minnesota.
Kevon Looney`s role is also crucial; while the Warriors often prefer playing small, the veteran center was vital against larger opponents in the first round and against Rudy Gobert in Game 1. He may be needed for similar duties against the Nuggets or the Thunder`s size in the conference finals. Golden State benefits from schematic versatility and experience in making mid-series tactical adjustments. Furthermore, Coach Kerr`s ability to manage the postseason as a complete journey, not just individual games, is a significant advantage, particularly as they deal with Curry`s injury.
Unlike the top contenders, Golden State doesn`t have the high ceiling that would allow them to easily cruise to a title. They lack consistent offensive firepower beyond their stars, and Curry`s injury makes reaching the conference finals a significant challenge. However, if they can survive until his return, their experience and championship DNA make them a dangerous opponent capable of winning 11 more games over the next six weeks. In any potential Game 7 scenario, they might be the most reliable bet in the field.
New York Knicks
BPI Title Odds: 7.2%
It`s difficult to envision the Knicks securing their first title since 1973, even after their remarkable comeback win in Boston in Game 1. The Celtics likely would have won Game 1 without severe shooting variance and swept the regular-season series against New York. Moreover, New York struggled to defeat the sixth-seeded Detroit Pistons in the first round, winning their four games by a combined margin significantly smaller than other conference semifinalists.
However, New York`s playoff performance so far, particularly the clutch play led by Jalen Brunson, offers a potential pathway to winning close games and grinding their way to a title. More clutch heroics from Brunson and his teammates would be essential, as would some external fortune. The Knicks` playoff run was hampered by injuries last season, and they could benefit if opponents faced similar injury issues this postseason.
New York remains the underdog against Boston, but the Celtics have already dealt with injuries (Tatum missing a game, Brown`s knee, Porzingis`s illness in Game 1). While Boston is deeper and more talented, the matchup becomes more balanced if Boston is missing a star or others are limited by injury. If the Knicks could upset a potentially injury-affected Celtics team while Indiana simultaneously upset Cleveland, New York could gain home-court advantage in the conference finals, providing a real chance to end their 52-year title drought.
Cleveland Cavaliers
BPI Title Odds: 5.2%
What seemed like a promising season just days ago has quickly become precarious for Cleveland due to injuries and the challenge posed by the Pacers. Darius Garland missed early games against Indiana, Evan Mobley and De`Andre Hunter missed Game 2, and Tyrese Haliburton`s game-winning shot put the Cavaliers in an 0-2 series deficit. For Cleveland to recover and resume a path towards a title, getting healthy is paramount. The short-handed Cavaliers relied heavily on Donovan Mitchell`s high-scoring performance in Game 2, but this isn`t a sustainable plan, especially given the fatigue of key players like Mitchell and Jarrett Allen. Cleveland desperately needs Mobley`s size, Garland`s playmaking, and Hunter`s shooting, along with the added depth they provide, to have a chance at a comeback.
Other factors offer some hope for Cleveland. They are likely to see improved shooting performance in upcoming games; after ranking second in the regular season in 3-point percentage and shooting well in the first round, they were cold from distance in the first two games against the Pacers. Conversely, Indiana`s high 3-point percentage in the series is likely to regress. If injured stars return promptly and shooting luck normalizes, Cleveland has a realistic possibility of overcoming the deficit, even with upcoming road games. While difficult, previous teams have come back from losing the first two games at home, most recently the 2020-21 LA Clippers.
Mapping out the rest of the Cavaliers` playoff journey beyond the conference semifinals currently seems overly optimistic. However, a fully healthy Cleveland squad won 64 games with the NBA`s second-best point differential this season. That team is capable of winning it all, provided they can first get past Indiana. But time is running out.
Minnesota Timberwolves
BPI Title Odds: 1.9%
The Timberwolves entered the playoffs on a strong note, finishing the regular season with a 17-4 record and then convincingly defeating the Los Angeles Lakers in the first round. Minnesota`s stifling defense managed to hold the Lakers, a team featuring elite offensive talent, below 100 points in three out of five games. The team benefits from Anthony Edwards` ascent into superstardom, Julius Randle playing arguably his best playoff basketball, Jaden McDaniels fitting the 3-and-D archetype, and solid starting-caliber players like Naz Reid, Donte DiVincenzo, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker providing depth off the bench. Minnesota possesses good shooting and size throughout the roster.
Although they lost Game 1 to a Warriors team mostly without Stephen Curry, the odds dramatically shifted in Minnesota`s favor upon the news of the legendary shooter`s injury. However, the Timberwolves themselves need to improve their 3-point shooting to advance further. They overcame poor shooting from distance in the first round against the Lakers and started Game 1 against Golden State cold, making just five 3-pointers total. Specifically, the combined shooting from key role players DiVincenzo, Alexander-Walker, and Mike Conley has been poor in the postseason. At least one of them needs to make open looks to provide Anthony Edwards with reliable backcourt support in critical moments.
Minnesota`s path would also be easier if Denver were to upset the Thunder, given the Timberwolves` favorable record against the Nuggets over the past season. Despite the challenges, the Timberwolves are confident, possessing the athleticism and defensive capabilities to make life difficult for any opponent over a seven-game series. Last season, the Timberwolves made a significant leap by reaching the conference finals before running out of steam. They may now have a better understanding of how to manage their energy throughout a long playoff run, which is a concerning prospect for any team standing in their way.
