NBA Breakout Players: Evaluating Past Predictions and Looking Ahead to 2025-26

As the 2024-25 NBA season winds down, it`s an opportune moment to reflect on our preseason forecasts for breakout players. We`ll assess how these predictions panned out, highlighting both successes and unexpected disappointments.

Before the season commenced, we analyzed eleven players poised for a significant leap. Among them was Evan Mobley, whom we envisioned becoming the offensive focal point for the Cleveland Cavaliers. However, we didn`t foresee Brandin Podziemski of Golden State experiencing a slight dip in efficiency.

Let`s delve into the accuracy of our initial assessments, examining both the hits and misses. With insights, we`ll also offer an early glimpse into potential breakout candidates for the 2025-26 season.

Looking Back at the Hits

Evan Mobley

Cleveland Cavaliers
Center

Reports from Cleveland indicated that coach Kenny Atkinson intended to feature Mobley, 23, as a central offensive player—a vision that contributed to Atkinson`s hiring in June 2024. Now in March, the Cavaliers are leading the Eastern Conference with an impressive 58-14 record and boast the league`s most efficient offense (121.5 offensive rating). It`s evident that Atkinson`s plans for the talented 7-footer are taking shape.

Mobley is achieving career-high averages with 18.6 points per game, significantly increasing his 3-point attempts, and maintaining his strong defensive presence. He has emerged as a cornerstone for the top team in the East and earned All-Star recognition, solidifying his status as a premier two-way big man in the NBA.

Key stat: Beyond his scoring, Mobley`s career-best 22.6% usage rate, 64% true shooting, and plus-13.2 net rating highlight the synergy between his personal growth and Cleveland`s ascent as a championship contender. The Cavaliers are effectively leveraging his abilities, easing the burden on guards Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell, both of whom are also having exceptional seasons.

Jalen Williams

Oklahoma City Thunder
Forward/Guard

My preseason selection of Williams as a breakout candidate was based on solid reasoning. With Josh Giddey`s absence in Oklahoma City, Williams, a gifted combo guard, stepped into a more prominent on-ball role. In reality, his rise exceeded expectations, as he became an All-Star sooner than anticipated. Back in October, I questioned whether Williams could become a true All-Star or settle into a role as a high-level supporting player.

Williams has taken on a versatile defensive role, often guarding bigger opponents in smaller lineups, especially with Chet Holmgren`s absence for three months due to injury. Despite missing a portion of March with a hip issue, Williams has progressed towards stardom.

Key stat: While Williams` efficiency has slightly decreased due to his increased offensive responsibilities, the 23-year-old is setting career highs in points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks with a 26.8% usage rate. Coincidentally, the Thunder hold the NBA`s best record (60-12), relying on him to lead the offense when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander needs a break and to fill defensive gaps. He ranks among the top five in deflections per game (3.6). Few young players effectively manage such significant two-way responsibilities.

Jalen Green

Houston Rockets
Guard

Green`s statistics haven`t dramatically improved from last season, but his emergence as the primary scorer for the Rockets, who have surpassed their previous season`s win total with 47 wins by March 25, is noteworthy. In the first year of his three-year extension, Green is playing consistently in a winning environment, leading the team in usage rate. It often takes time for scoring guards to reach this point, and Green is beginning to find his rhythm on a Rockets team that has shown patience with its young talent, including Amen Thompson and Alperen Sengun.

Key stat: Green has improved his efficiency from last season, moving from the 61st to the 68th percentile in pick-and-roll scoring (leading the Rockets in these plays) and, notably, from the 28th to the 60th percentile in spot-up situations, according to Synergy. Making better decisions with the ball and learning to play effectively without it on a team with considerable talent represents significant progress for Green.

Regretting the Misses

Franz Wagner

Orlando Magic
Forward

I`d like a do-over on this one. Wagner`s trajectory was clearly upward after his standout performance for Germany at the Paris Olympics last summer, and he was expected to take on a larger role alongside Paolo Banchero in Orlando. However, a torn oblique on December 6 sidelined him for 20 games.

He has remained effective when healthy, increasing his scoring average to a career-high 24.3 points per game and carrying a 30.8% usage rate. The Magic`s performance has been inconsistent, likely leading to a play-in tournament spot. Wagner`s season was hampered by the injury, and while his scoring volume increased, his overall impact didn`t fully reach breakout level. Despite the setback to his All-Star aspirations this season, I remain confident in his future breakout.

Key stat: Wagner`s 3-point percentage remains around 30% despite more attempts. Given his 85% free throw accuracy (and 35% and 36% in his first two seasons), improvement from long range seems likely, but shooting development is often unpredictable.

Jalen Johnson

Atlanta Hawks
Forward

Johnson`s inclusion here is also due to injury. He was ruled out for the season on January 29 with a torn labrum requiring surgery. Before the injury, predicting Johnson as a breakout star seemed accurate. Through 36 games, he averaged career highs across the board: 18.9 points, 10 rebounds, 1.6 steals, and a block per game, becoming Atlanta`s second-best player behind Trae Young.

Availability has been a recurring issue for Johnson, with significant injuries cutting short his last two seasons. In 2023-24, an ankle injury limited him to 56 games. While it`s debatable whether this is a “miss,” his health issues have hindered a true star breakthrough.

Key stat: Including Johnson`s incomplete season, only six other NBA regulars have usage and assist rates over 20% with a rebound rate above 13%: Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid (limited to 19 games), Alperen Sengun, Bam Adebayo, and Domantas Sabonis. Johnson thrived in the versatile role envisioned for him by the Hawks—now he needs to maintain it for a full season.

Brandin Podziemski

Golden State Warriors
Guard

Podziemski seemed like a strong sophomore breakout candidate, especially with the Warriors seeking more competitiveness. While his minutes have been consistent amidst injuries, and he even started in February, his efficiency has declined (53.6% true shooting percentage). As previously noted, for Golden State to return to the playoffs, Podziemski needed to improve his efficiency and defensive contributions.

Coach Steve Kerr has frequently adjusted lineups, with various players seeing playing time. Podziemski remains part of Golden State`s future, but his role has diminished recently as he navigates shooting struggles and NBA adjustments.

Key stat: His 3-point regression (from 38% to 34%) is notable, but Podziemski is also a career 69.4% free throw shooter and doesn`t draw many free throws. As a hard worker, Podziemski is likely to improve his shooting, but he needs to create more easy scoring opportunities. This might be due to his evolving role, but as a craft-reliant scorer, he needs to address this long-term.

Way-Too-Early Breakout Picks for 2025-26

Predicting future performance at this stage is always challenging, especially with team dynamics and player development still in flux. Many teams are dealing with injuries, focusing on draft lottery positioning, or both, which can dilute the competitive landscape.

Nevertheless, several young, impactful players have emerged this season. Some are on playoff-bound teams, while others are on teams building for the future. The following five players have the potential to become significantly more influential by next season, given their age and demonstrated improvement. — Analyst Insight

Toumani Camara

Portland Trail Blazers
Forward

Few players reach Camara`s defensive level in their second year. He is already an elite point-of-attack defender, evidenced by his performance against Indiana`s Tyrese Haliburton, limiting him to a scoreless, three-shot, six-assist game in February. He also defends larger players effectively, including two-time MVP Antetokounmpo and three-time MVP Nikola Jokic. Beyond defense, he`s a capable role player and double-digit scorer, shooting 37% from 3 on good volume, rebounding well, and contributing over two steals plus blocks per game.

Key stat: The 24-year-old leads the NBA with 27 charges drawn. His anticipation as a help defender is exceptional, consistently making impactful plays, either in chase-down situations or from the weak side. He is a major reason Portland`s defense has been top-five since the All-Star break.

Amen Thompson

Houston Rockets
Forward

Thompson`s athleticism is striking, and his play this season shows more purpose and understanding than in his rookie year. He excels defensively and has taken over games with his playmaking, recording three triple-doubles, including two against top-five teams. While his perimeter shooting is still a work in progress, he is developing into a formidable player, even if he doesn`t become a consistent shooter.

Key stat: The Rockets have maintained a 10-9 record when Fred VanVleet is out, a testament to Thompson`s impact. Houston is 4.7 points per 100 possessions better when Thompson plays without VanVleet. In games he has started, he has averaged an impressive 16.4 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 4.8 assists on 55% shooting.

Dyson Daniels

Atlanta Hawks
Guard

Daniels has been impressive in his first season with the Hawks and is a strong contender for Most Improved Player. However, next season could be even better for him and Atlanta.

“There are times when it looks like he`s beaten defensively, but he recovers so well. Sometimes we get into trouble because teammates overhelp, thinking Daniels can`t recover, leaving another player open,” said Hawks coach Quin Snyder.

Playing alongside Trae Young should become easier for Daniels, who is having a career year. He has shown offensive improvement, shooting 51% overall and nearly 38% from 3 since the All-Star break, up from 47% and 33% before. This offensive progress is encouraging, especially given his defensive prowess.

Key stat: Daniels` lead in deflections is significant. He has 393, while second-place Kelly Oubre Jr. has 248. This 145-deflection gap is the same as the gap between Oubre and 125th-ranked Goga Bitadze. Additionally, Daniels recently recorded his 192nd steal, the most in a single season in over a decade.

Jaden Ivey

Detroit Pistons
Guard

Ivey`s season ended prematurely due to a fractured fibula in January, but both he and the Pistons had positive developments before then. After a challenging 2023-24 season, Ivey looked more like a key player this year.

He significantly improved his 3-point shooting (40.9% this season, up from under 34% in previous seasons) and had a career-best true shooting percentage, improving the outlook for his partnership with Cade Cunningham. There`s reason to believe he will further improve his mid-range game, as his field goal percentages from 10-16 feet (33%) and 16-23 feet (33%) were career lows and should increase upon his return.

Key stat: Ivey had several clutch moments before his injury, including a game-winning 4-point play and a buzzer-beater. After shooting poorly in clutch situations in 2023-24 (36.4%), he improved to 47% this season.

Quentin Grimes

Philadelphia 76ers
Guard

Including Grimes here might be unfair, given his recent scoring surge with the 76ers. While Philadelphia faces uncertainty, Grimes, 24, is experiencing his best stretch since his rookie season, averaging nearly 29 points per game in March. He had never averaged more than 11.3 points in a season prior to this.

Key stat: Grimes` 25.9% usage rate with the Sixers may not be sustainable when Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey return. However, a 46-point performance with Philadelphia`s current roster shows his potential value, even in a smaller role. Grimes will be a restricted free agent this summer. These recent performances are what teams hoped to see from him previously.