The NBA regular season has concluded, marked by unexpected team performances and a significant trade that caught even bookmakers off guard.
Here`s a review of the NBA season focusing on betting perspectives:
Oklahoma City Thunder`s Success and Philadelphia 76ers` Disappointments
The Oklahoma City Thunder stood out as an exceptionally reliable team for bettors this NBA season. They successfully covered the point spread in 68.3% of their games, achieving the best record in this metric over the last 35 years, according to ESPN Research. Their consistency against the spread continued as the season drew to a close, going 18-3 in their final stretch and covering in 11 consecutive games in March and April. Notably, they were rarely considered underdogs, starting as such in only three games throughout the season, the fewest in the league.
| Season | Team | ATS Record | Cover Pct | Playoff Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | Thunder | 56-26 | 68.3 | ? |
| 2011-12 | Spurs | 43-21-2 | 67.2 | Lost in Conference Finals |
| 2009-10 | Bucks | 54-28 | 65.9 | Lost in 1st Round |
| 1994-95 | Jazz | 52-28-2 | 65.0 | Lost in 1st Round |
| 2007-08 | Celtics | 52-29-1 | 64.2 | Won Championship |
In contrast to the Thunder`s success, the Philadelphia 76ers struggled significantly against betting expectations. They had a 28-54 record against the spread, covering it in only 34.1% of their games. Historically, only two teams in the past 35 years have performed worse against the spread than this season`s 76ers: the 2003-04 Orlando Magic and the 1995-96 Houston Rockets.
| Season | Team | ATS Record | Cover Pct |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2003-04 | Magic | 27-54-1 | 33.3 |
| 1995-96 | Rockets | 27-53-2 | 33.8 |
| 2024-25 | 76ers | 28-54 | 34.1 |
| 2011-12 | Bobcats | 23-43 | 34.8 |
| 1995-96 | Mavericks | 28-52-2 | 35.0 |
Los Angeles Lakers: “America`s Team” with Dončić Effect
The Los Angeles Lakers have always enjoyed a special status, thanks to their rich history of championships and a constant influx of star players, making them consistently popular across the NBA.
Betting interest in the Lakers is typically high, especially since LeBron James joined the team. However, it reached new heights in February following the surprising acquisition of Luka Dončić, a highly regarded player in the league.
`If there`s one team that is America`s team when it comes to basketball, it`s the Lakers,` said Johnny Avello, sportsbook director at DraftKings. `They have fans all over the country, and even globally. They are very popular on our platform, both for weekly bets and futures.`
Avello noted that betting on the Lakers increased significantly after the trade, in addition to their already substantial pre-trade popularity.
Both DraftKings and ESPN BET reported that the Lakers attracted the highest volume of spread bets this season. Interestingly, both also indicated that the Lakers were the most frequently bet-on moneyline underdog throughout the season, often receiving points before Dončić`s arrival.
Adam Landeka, vice president of sportsbook strategy and growth at ESPN BET, commented, `Despite their strong performance in the latter half of the season, the Lakers were often underdogs in the first half, particularly when injuries accumulated. Bettors frequently backed the Lakers as underdogs and were often rewarded, as they went 18-14 against the spread this season.`
Dončić`s arrival also made the Lakers a popular choice for championship futures bets, with major sportsbooks identifying them as a significant liability in this market as the playoffs approach.
Looking back at the trade, oddsmakers like Hal Egeland from BetMGM are still puzzled by the Mavericks` decision to trade Dončić to the Lakers. Egeland mentioned being overwhelmed with messages on February 2nd, the day after the trade was announced.
`It wasn`t a `Shams is hacked` moment because everyone was already discussing it,` Egeland recalled. `My first thought was that there must be some underlying issue. Obviously, that hasn`t been the case, but that was my initial reaction.`
Sportsbooks reacted swiftly, temporarily removing NBA Finals odds until they fully assessed the trade`s implications. BetMGM, according to Egeland, adjusted the Lakers` championship odds from 40-1 to 18-1 overnight.
Egeland recounted constantly checking social media for reactions, noting a widespread consensus of disbelief at the Mavericks` trade decision.
`I can`t remember such unified internet opinion on anything sports-related in my experience,` Egeland stated.
Surprise Underdog Teams
The Trail Blazers and Pistons were among the season`s biggest overachievers. (Alika Jenner/Getty Images)
Several teams exceeded preseason expectations, providing profitable opportunities for bettors who backed them.
The Portland Trail Blazers were notable, being the first NBA team to surpass their preseason win total, according to ESPN BET odds. They exceeded 21.5 wins by February 4th, in their 51st game, and finished the season with 36 wins. DraftKings reported that bettors favored them more than any other underdog for spread bets this season.
Portland achieved 25 outright wins as underdogs, tying with the Chicago Bulls for the league lead in this category and ranking fourth-most in the past 35 seasons, according to ESPN Research.
Unlike the Trail Blazers, the Bulls leveraged their late-season improvement to secure a play-in tournament spot after surpassing 28.5 wins by March 17th. However, they were eventually defeated by the Miami Heat. ESPN BET noted the Bulls as their fourth-most-bet team on the spread throughout the season.
However, perhaps the most remarkable underdog story of the season was the Detroit Pistons. They dramatically improved from 14 wins in the 2023-24 season to 44 wins and a playoff appearance in 2024-25. Entering the season, their playoff odds were +1300, according to ESPN BET. They were the second team to exceed their win total, surpassing 25.5 wins by February 7th, in their 52nd game, and had the largest over-margin on win totals in the NBA at 18.5.
`I think we even had a prop last year asking, `Will the Pistons win nine games?`. That`s how dire things were,` Avello commented. `Their turnaround this year is incredible. For me, it`s probably the biggest surprise in the league.`
Popular Player Prop Bets
Given the Lakers` popularity, it`s not surprising that LeBron James is frequently the most-bet-on player for prop bets across several sportsbooks.
Dončić also consistently ranks among the top five most-bet prop players, maintaining high popularity even before joining the Lakers. Avello highlighted that having two players from the same team so heavily bet on props is `quite unusual,` primarily attributed to the trade.
Beyond these Lakers stars, other top players in prop bets include league superstars like Nikola Jokic, Jayson Tatum, and Giannis Antetokounmpo, all of whom were frequently backed at both ESPN BET and DraftKings.
`It`s always the same big-name guys,` Avello remarked. `Bettors prefer players who are consistent and put up significant stats… especially over the past five years or so.`
