As the 2024-25 NBA season nears its end, teams are focusing on the playoffs, while others are preparing for the draft lottery.
The NBA regular season awards are approaching, with the MVP race in the Western Conference being the central topic.
Currently, there are no clear favorites for the major awards, with both Defensive Player of the Year and Sixth Man of the Year races being highly competitive.
NBA experts Zach Kram, Tim MacMahon, Chris Herring, Jamal Collier, and Tim Bontemps share their insights on the biggest questions surrounding the league`s regular-season awards and offer their predictions.
Jokic and SGA Compete for MVP. Who is More Deserving?
Zach Kram: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is on track to be the tenth player in NBA history to lead the league in scoring while also leading his team to the best record. Historically, eight of the previous nine players with this achievement won MVP. However, Gilgeous-Alexander has also surpassed Nikola Jokic in advanced stats. Metrics like estimated plus-minus suggest SGA has been slightly more valuable this season.
Tim MacMahon: Both Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander have strong MVP cases. However, if it`s a close decision, I would lean towards Gilgeous-Alexander, who hasn`t won the award yet, especially since his team holds a significant lead in the Western Conference. Gilgeous-Alexander`s scoring lead and plus/minus further strengthen his case this season.
Chris Herring: Gilgeous-Alexander`s dominant season and team success make him a traditional MVP choice. On the other hand, Jokic is playing exceptional basketball, already with three MVPs and an NBA title. While OKC is better with SGA, Denver`s performance significantly drops without Jokic. Depending on your definition of `value,` Jokic could be chosen, but SGA is a strong contender this year.
Tim Bontemps: The MVP award is rarely about who is most `deserving,` and this year is no different. Both players are having outstanding seasons and are worthy candidates. The difficulty in choosing comes from the fact that both have compelling arguments.
Jamal Collier: SGA and the Oklahoma City Thunder have been dominant all season, leading the competitive Western Conference. Gilgeous-Alexander is poised to win the scoring title and ranks high in advanced metrics. He has been a favorite for some time, and this year feels like his coronation.
Draymond Green Believes DPOY Race is Open with Wembanyama Out. Who is the Top Candidate?
MacMahon: Luguentz Dort is the most impactful defender on the league`s best defense. In a season without a clear frontrunner, Dort is my pick. While his stats (1.1 steals, 0.6 blocks) may not be typical for this award, the Thunder unanimously would vote for him. His defensive intensity sets the tone for Oklahoma City, which has limited opponents to few 30-point games. Elite scorers avoid isolating Dort due to his strong defense, allowing only 0.64 points per possession in isolation.
Bontemps: The DPOY race is still unclear. Evan Mobley and Jaren Jackson Jr. are contenders, and Draymond Green and Ivica Zubac are also in the conversation. It`s a wide-open race, and the outcome is uncertain.
Kram: The top defensive teams like the Thunder and Clippers excel due to team defense and coaching, not individual standouts. Dort could win as a representative of the Thunder`s strong defense, similar to Marcus Smart`s win. However, big men usually win DPOY, making Mobley and Green leading candidates.
Herring: I`d lean towards Draymond Green. His defensive IQ has been crucial for the Warriors, especially with Stephen Curry as the primary offensive force. Opponents` shooting percentage around the basket drops significantly when defended by Green. At 35, he could be the oldest DPOY winner. The crowded field of Thunder defenders might benefit another candidate.
Collier: It`s unfortunate Wemby might not be recognized for his defensive impact in his first seasons. His presence alone changes opponents` shot selection. With him out, the DPOY race lacks a clear favorite. Jaren Jackson Jr. and Evan Mobley appear to be strong contenders.
Which Most Improved Player Candidate Has Superstar Potential?
Herring: Cade Cunningham is arguably already a superstar. His previous season`s stats were already star-level, making his Most Improved consideration unusual. Choosing players who were already scoring 20+ points feels off for this award. It depends on whether you value the leap from obscurity to good player, or from borderline star to superstar. I prefer the former for MIP.
Collier: I agree that Cunningham shouldn`t be considered for MIP, nor should top picks in their second year. Tyler Herro, who made the All-Star team this year, is a better candidate. He effectively led the Heat when Jimmy Butler III was out.
Bontemps: Cunningham and Evan Mobley are both strong MIP candidates. Cunningham has led the Pistons to their best season in years and earned All-Star status. Mobley has also significantly improved, becoming an All-Star and a versatile big man.
Kram: Mobley`s offensive and defensive improvements give him the highest potential in this MIP category. Concerns about his stagnation last year seem unfounded. He made his first All-Star team and should be a consistent presence.
MacMahon: Cunningham has proven he can lead a winning team. With better coaching and supporting players, he`s thrived. A 23-year-old guard averaging 25.7 points and 9.2 assists is on a superstar trajectory.
Which Sixth Man Candidate Could Become an All-Star?
Bontemps: Payton Pritchard is a strong Sixth Man candidate this year, but unlikely to become an All-Star. While a great story and key piece for Boston, he`s not seen as a future All-Star.
Kram: None of the top candidates like Pritchard, Malik Beasley, or Ty Jerome are likely future All-Stars. Russell Westbrook, who could get down-ballot votes, might receive an honorary All-Star spot in his final season, like Dirk Nowitzki and Dwyane Wade.
MacMahon: Amen Thompson, a potential candidate, became a starter mid-season. No clear future All-Star among the top Sixth Man candidates this year.
Herring: Pritchard will likely win Sixth Man. Naz Reid, a previous winner, could be a future All-Star. He`s versatile, efficient, and performs well with starter minutes. In starts, he averages 18.3 points, nine rebounds, and 3.2 assists. In a larger role, he could become an All-Star.
Collier: Naz Reid is highly valued in Minnesota. While unlikely to win again this year, Reid`s importance to the Timberwolves suggests he could become an All-Star alongside Anthony Edwards.
Fact or Fiction: Should the League Adjust or Eliminate the 65-Game Rule?
Herring: Fact. I never liked the rule, especially after hearing Tyrese Haliburton admit to playing through discomfort for award eligibility, which impacts supermax contracts. The rule`s fine print also unfairly excludes players like Donte DiVincenzo from awards.
Kram: Fact, especially for All-Defensive and All-NBA teams. Defensive specialists often don`t play enough minutes to qualify. Top stars can provide more value in fewer games than lesser players in 82 games. All-Rookie teams already ignore the rule; All-Defense and All-NBA should too.
MacMahon: Keep the rule but remove the minutes limit, especially for All-Defensive teams. It`s necessary to encourage star players to play more often in the modern NBA.
Bontemps: Fact. I`ve never supported it, and it hasn`t significantly changed voting as voters rarely picked players below the 65-game threshold anyway. Trust the voters to make informed decisions.
Collier: Fact. Never been a fan; it`s a rule that fixed a non-existent problem.
