Is Manchester City`s place in next season`s Champions League truly secure? Ignoring the ongoing investigation into 115 charges for a moment, their recent goalless draw at Old Trafford was uninspired. If they repeat this kind of performance in their next seven games, both Newcastle United and Aston Villa could overtake the current champions in the league table.
Manchester City, usually known for their dominance of possession, managed only nine shots in this match without Erling Haaland, accumulating a low 0.49 expected goals. This is their third-worst attacking performance under Pep Guardiola in the Premier League. Unlike previous instances where poor performances could be excused as anomalies or against top-tier opposition, this draw highlights a deeper issue. City`s tactical setup is built to utilize Haaland`s strengths, and without him, they appeared lost and lacked direction in attack.
From long range, City still demonstrated their established patterns of play. They controlled the majority of territory, completing 224 passes in United`s half by halftime, significantly more than United managed in City`s half. The pattern continued in the final third of the pitch. However, inside the penalty area, United actually had more possession, 13 touches to City`s 10.
Despite controlling the game, City lacked a real attacking threat. Manchester United successfully stifled City`s attempts to penetrate the penalty area by deploying a compact 5-4-1 defensive formation, limiting the space between their defense and the striker Rasmus Hojlund. This type of defensive challenge is not new for City; they have faced similar tactics for years. They once excelled at breaking down such defenses, but more recently, their approach has relied on overpowering opponents with a strong central striker like Haaland.
A team designed to play to Haaland`s strengths seemed unsure how to attack without their main striker. Kevin De Bruyne, returning to a more advanced midfield role reminiscent of pre-Haaland tactics, needed forward runs and penalty box threats to support him. While Omar Marmoush showed some energy, the midfield lacked players like Ilkay Gundogan and Bernardo Silva, who previously had the stamina to make penetrating runs into the box.
Phil Foden has had ample opportunities to prove he can consistently be the goal-scoring threat he was last season. It`s been suggested that Foden should be the player to fill the creative void when De Bruyne eventually departs. Now is the time for him to step up, yet the 24-year-old still appears most effective on the flanks. Despite being named PFA Player of the Year, his impact in crucial, game-defining moments, like the one Guardiola needed on Sunday, remains questionable.
City needed Foden to elevate his game in Haaland`s absence, but he missed an early chance in the second half and offered little else.
If there was any spark in this dull match, it came from the United side. United adopted a risky strategy of launching rapid counter-attacks, often starting from their own penalty area. They came close to scoring on several occasions, beginning with a free kick earned by Alejandro Garnacho`s quick break. A better connection from Garnacho and Diogo Dalot could have had an assist. Patrick Dorgu also came close, and a powerful shot from Joshua Zirkzee in the second half might have broken the deadlock.
Bruno Fernandes was central to United`s most effective play. Attacks became dangerous when he was involved, his passes perfectly timed to challenge the City defense. He led United in entries into the final third, chances created, and ball recoveries. Across both teams, he was the most proactive player in seeking a win.
Given City`s current situation, their lack of urgency is surprising. Aston Villa gained points this weekend and are in excellent form. Newcastle, with two games in hand, could overtake City in the top five if they win just one. With Haaland and Rodri in the team, City would likely be confident about their remaining seven games. However, reinforcements aren`t coming, and if City continues to perform like this for the next month and a half, their Champions League qualification could be seriously jeopardized.
