Only two races into the Formula 1 season, speculation is already swirling around the most precarious seat on the grid and the driver currently occupying it.
Red Bull is reportedly seriously considering swapping Liam Lawson with Yuki Tsunoda from Racing Bulls as early as the upcoming Japanese Grand Prix. This comes after Lawson experienced a difficult first two weeks of the season, just three months after being called upon to replace Sergio Perez. Team boss Christian Horner has frequently described this seat as the `hardest in Formula 1`.
The discussion about Lawson`s future, Red Bull`s past decisions, and potential next steps regarding the seat alongside world champion Max Verstappen was a key topic on the latest episode of The F1 Show. Simon Lazenby, Ted Kravitz, and Bernie Collins analyzed the main talking points from the previous weekend’s Chinese Grand Prix.
Regarding Lawson`s initial performance compared to Verstappen, particularly after three consecutive early qualifying exits and no points finishes, Collins commented, `His performance in both race weekends hasn`t looked impressive so far.`
`[In China], being seven-tenths of a second slower in Q1 is a significant gap, placing them at opposite ends of the grid.`
Collins elaborated on Verstappen`s exceptional abilities: `Max is incredibly strong. He maximizes the car`s potential. He delivers crucial laps when it counts, rarely makes errors, and consistently out-qualifies drivers who do make mistakes. He assembles his best lap during critical moments, even in races, he manages to excel.`
Collins referenced an insightful interview with Christian Horner where Horner indicated that team development had followed the direction of their fastest driver. This has resulted in a car that is challenging to handle, proving difficult for many drivers to master due to its sensitive and twitchy nature.
`Max can manage this; it`s the development path they`ve chosen.`
Collins then questioned the broader implications: `How challenging will it be for them to deviate from this development direction? Will they ever successfully fill that second seat with a consistently strong performer?`
Despite Lawson`s lack of prior experience at both Albert Park and the Shanghai International Circuit, and even with Verstappen acknowledging the 2025 Red Bull as a demanding car, Lawson admitted after the Chinese GP that he needed to `quickly get on top of car performance`.
Kravitz argued that Lawson deserves more time to demonstrate his full potential, questioning the logic of a change before Japan. He noted, `Lawson knows Suzuka very well and will undoubtedly perform better there,` considering his previous experience at the track in both F1 and Super Formula in 2023.
`He`d never raced in Australia and China before, with China being a particularly difficult track to optimize,` Kravitz added.
Collins reiterated her earlier point about Lawson not receiving sufficient testing time in an older Red Bull car before his promotion. She also suggested that Red Bull might have reconsidered their approach to selecting a replacement for Sergio Perez, given the unique handling characteristics of their current car.
`I believe they are in a difficult position,` she stated. `They should have assessed their younger drivers based on who had the most `forward aero balance` driving style. We believe this is a key characteristic of their car – very front-end focused and unlike the Racing Bulls car in its handling.`
`Perhaps they should have given all potential candidates a day in an older Red Bull car to see who could achieve the fastest lap time. This could be a useful metric, especially since the Racing Bulls car is fundamentally different. Consider Alex Albon, for instance, who struggled at Red Bull but is now performing exceptionally well at Williams. He might even hesitate to return to Red Bull, as the car`s characteristics may not suit his driving style.`
Collins emphasized the performance gap between Red Bull`s drivers, concluding, `If Max were to leave or miss a race, they would currently be performing as only the tenth-fastest team.`
