Tests conducted on Tuesday verified what was suspected after Jayson Tatum collapsed during the Boston Celtics` defeat to the New York Knicks on Monday: Tatum sustained a ruptured right Achilles tendon late in the fourth quarter. This injury will keep him out for the rest of the current postseason and potentially impact his participation in the 2025-26 season.
Considering Tatum`s vital role for the defending champions, as their primary scorer and a three-time All-NBA First Team selection (with a fourth likely impending), his injury ranks among the most significant in NBA history.
The immediate consequences involve Boston`s challenge to overcome a 3-1 deficit against the Knicks, who are now considered the favorites in this series. However, the effects extend much further, influencing how the Celtics will navigate the upcoming season.
Let`s examine how Boston might perform in Tatum`s absence, review the history of Achilles injuries in the NBA, and understand its implications for the Celtics.
When could Tatum realistically return?
No NBA player since Jose Juan Barea in 2019 has come back in under 10.5 months following an Achilles rupture. This suggests the Celtics should anticipate Tatum missing the entire 2025-26 regular season. A return during the postseason is more plausible, but there`s virtually no precedent for this scenario.
The only NBA player I could find who returned from a season-long injury in the playoffs was Larry Krystkowiak with the Milwaukee Bucks in 1991. He came back from an ACL repair to play three games, scoring a total of two points. Although Krystkowiak was a starter before his injury, the stakes weren`t comparable to those involving an All-NBA First Teamer.
Postseason comebacks were discussed for both Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson after their injuries in the 2019 NBA Finals, but neither materialized. The Golden State Warriors` 2019-20 season concluded long before Thompson was cleared. He later suffered another Achilles rupture in an offseason pickup game. Durant, meanwhile, chose not to participate in the Brooklyn Nets` bubble restart in the summer of 2020, returning a year and a half after his Achilles rupture at the start of the 2020-21 campaign.
Based on this history, Boston might need to approach the 2025-26 season assuming Tatum won`t play at all, even in the playoffs. This dramatically alters the planning for a team that has secured 15 playoff series victories in the seven years since drafting Tatum third overall in 2018.
Navigating the Second Luxury Tax Apron
As ESPN`s Brian Windhorst recently detailed, the Celtics face a challenging financial situation. With Tatum`s supermax extension—currently the largest in NBA history, surpassing teammate Jaylen Brown`s—set to begin next summer, Boston is projected to be over $40 million above the 2025-26 luxury tax line. This calculation also doesn`t include veteran Al Horford, who will be an unrestricted free agent at age 39.
The substantial tax bill for the Celtics, coupled with restrictions imposed on teams exceeding the second luxury tax apron, were always expected to necessitate difficult choices. Tatum`s injury accelerates these decisions. Paying over $200 million in luxury taxes for a potential championship contender is one matter; doing so for a team with uncertain advancement prospects is entirely another.
Age is another factor. If Boston`s next championship window shifts from 2026 to 2027, it impacts the team`s perspective on veteran players, particularly Jrue Holiday. By the 2026-27 season, Holiday will be 36. The Celtics might find it more beneficial to trade Holiday to another contender while his value remains high. Such a move could potentially reduce their payroll and introduce younger talent on the perimeter, although it would mean a defensive downgrade.
Conversely, Tatum`s absence might prevent Boston from even considering the drastic step of trading Brown. The long-term financial challenge for the Celtics stems from having Brown and Tatum combining to earn over 60% of the salary cap through 2028-29. Maintaining the depth that has been a team strength will be impossible now that their two most crucial players are compensated like the stars they are.
In Tatum`s absence, however, Brown`s capability to create his own shots becomes paramount. They were the only two Celtics rotation players this season assisted on less than 59% of their field goals—Tatum at 39% and Brown at 46%.
Expectations for Tatum`s Performance Post-Injury
Kevin Durant`s return will undoubtedly serve as a key comparison for Tatum. Despite sustaining his Achilles injury at 30, three years older than Tatum, Durant returned as the dominant player he was before the injury and remains an All-Star six years removed from it.
Durant`s example demonstrates that it is possible to avoid a significant decline in performance after an Achilles rupture. Perhaps the most probable impact for Tatum will be on his durability. Including the playoffs, no player has participated in more NBA games than Tatum since his draft year. This season`s eight missed games due to injury—six in March and April while Boston was comfortably securing the No. 2 seed—represented a career high for him.
Whenever Tatum makes his comeback, it`s likely he will face restrictions on playing back-to-back games for a period and will probably have his minutes managed. This could make it challenging for Tatum to accumulate more All-NBA First Team selections, even if his overall productivity remains high.
Typically, multi-talented wings have shown the best recovery and return performance after Achilles injuries. Besides Durant, this group includes Thompson and Wesley Matthews, who was back on the court less than eight months after his 2015 injury and continued playing in the NBA until age 37.
There`s no guarantee Tatum will join this group, rather than follow cautionary examples like DeMarcus Cousins and John Wall. However, there is also no reason to view an Achilles rupture as the end of Tatum`s capacity to play at an elite level.
Can the Celtics Mount a Comeback in This Series?
Firstly, they must overcome the emotional blow of seeing their star player assisted to the locker room in a wheelchair. Tatum`s injury was disheartening, but his Boston teammates will have a couple of days to process it before they attempt to stay alive in Game 5 at home on Wednesday night.
Even before Tatum`s injury, the Celtics were in a significant hole after trailing 3-1 in the series. Historically, 3-1 comebacks have been considerably more achievable for the higher seed, which Boston is. Nonetheless, higher seeds have only rallied to win 8% of the time in best-of-seven series since 1984 (5-58), compared to a mere 1% for lower seeds trailing 3-1 (2-141).
Furthermore, Tatum was the primary reason the Celtics were competitive in Game 4 despite allowing 70 points in the second half. Tatum scored 42 points in 40 minutes, tying the most career 40-point playoff games for any Boston player, before his injury.
In Tatum`s absence, the Celtics will need to lean heavily on their defense, which limited the Knicks to a combined 184 points in Games 2 and 3. Preventing Jalen Brunson from driving to the paint should be the top priority. Brunson`s 18 points in the paint on Monday nearly equaled his total of 22 over the first three games of the series.
As a team, New York recorded 64 points in the paint in Game 4, the third highest total by any team in a playoff game this season, according to NBA Advanced Stats. The Celtics could compensate for Tatum by deploying larger lineups, prioritizing rim protection, possibly at the expense of their own shooting efficiency. If Boston can manage to slow down the Knicks` offense, they possess sufficient scoring talent to win three consecutive games and achieve an improbable comeback.
Nevertheless, the combination of losing both the game and Tatum on Monday has dramatically shifted the odds. Boston, which had the best odds to win the Eastern Conference at ESPN BET entering Game 4, is now ranked last among the four remaining teams.
