Covering the NBA draft for ESPN over the past 23 years has taught me one crucial lesson: nobody can truly predict which prospects will succeed. While I initially thought my extensive evaluations gave me foresight, I quickly realized that forecasting NBA success is an impossible task. Looking back, players like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, drafted 11th, and Jalen Brunson, a later pick, have dramatically outperformed expectations, becoming MVP candidates and All-NBA players. This phenomenon is common in almost every draft class, particularly in basketball, where we evaluate 18 and 19-year-olds based on limited playing time.
Despite the inherent uncertainty, certain players in every draft possess qualities that make you “believe” in their potential. While guarantees are rare – though this year`s draft includes a prospect as close to a sure thing as we`ve seen in a long time – some players simply stand out. Here are a few individuals in the upcoming draft class that I particularly like.
The Undeniable Top Pick
The 2025 NBA draft is widely considered the **Cooper Flagg** draft. If every NBA team had the top pick, all 30 would select Flagg without hesitation. He is arguably the most impactful freshman ever at Duke and the most complete prospect in this draft class.
While Flagg has areas to refine, his overall skill set is exceptional. Few players I`ve scouted in three decades demonstrate proficiency across as many facets of the game. Measuring 6-8 with a 7-0 wingspan, he combines athleticism, length, lateral quickness, and good speed. Defensively, Flagg shows outstanding awareness, generates steals and blocks, and is a strong rebounder. Offensively, he`s an elite transition finisher and playmaker, a skilled driver, and an excellent cutter.
Early concerns about his perimeter shooting have largely been addressed; he shot 44% from deep in ACC play and nearly 39% overall last season. While his handle can still improve, shooting is now far from a weakness. Flagg possesses All-NBA potential, and I am confident he will reach it if he stays healthy. He is truly unique. Beyond his physical tools and skills, Flagg is one of the most competitive players I have encountered at his age. His maturity, especially for an 18-year-old, surpasses many prospects several years older.
Flagg prioritizes making the correct play over chasing statistics. By consistently making the right decisions, he naturally accumulates impressive numbers across the board.
Impressive Shooters
This draft class features several outstanding shooters, with freshmen **Tre Johnson** from Texas and **Kon Knueppel** from Duke leading this group.
Johnson is the more dynamic shotmaker and a superior athlete. Utilizing his 6-10 wingspan, he led the SEC in scoring at 19.9 points per game and converted 39.7% of his attempts from beyond the arc, sinking 89 three-pointers last season. Despite his length and physical gifts, his defensive impact wasn`t always consistent, but his speed and agility are valuable NBA traits. Knueppel stands out as the draft`s premier catch-and-shoot guard.
As a freshman, Knueppel connected on almost 41% of his deep shots, totaling 84 three-pointers. Last season, he was particularly efficient from the corner (48%) and was nearly perfect from the free-throw line (91.4%). Questions linger about Kneuppel`s defense and physical tools, but while he may not make an All-Defensive team, he competes hard and consistently hustles for loose balls.
The 3-and-D Specialists
Length is a highly valued asset in the NBA, translating well to defensive versatility. Players who can guard multiple positions, switch screens, disrupt opponents, and force turnovers are essential. Adding a reliable perimeter shot makes them even more coveted. This year`s draft offers three such 3-and-D prospects who might be slightly underrated but will be highly sought after on draft night.
**Carter Bryant** from Arizona, **Rasheer Fleming** from Saint Joseph`s, and **Cedric Coward** from Washington State are the most intriguing players in this category. Bryant is expected to be the first selected among the three. The 19-year-old Bryant is an exceptional athlete, finishing among the top performers in vertical leap and sprint time at the combine. He combines good size with impressive length and can effectively shoot standstill three-pointers. Nearly half of his points last season came from made threes, and 82% of his shots were either catch-and-shoot threes or finishes at the rim.
Fleming, 20, offers significant versatility with a 7-5 wingspan. He`s a capable multi-positional defender and floor spacer, hitting 62 threes at a 39% clip. His shooting preparation is solid, he excels in transition, and he is an excellent rebounder.
Coward represents a unique story. After starting his college career in Division III, he transferred twice, ending up at Washington State. Although he played only six games for the Cougars before the draft process, he scored 20 or more points in three of those games, including 30 against Northern Colorado. While not as tall as Fleming, Coward possesses a 7-2 wingspan, speed, strength, and great instincts on both ends of the court. He performed exceptionally well at the combine, ranking in the top six for sprint, vertical leap, and standing vertical leap.
High-Upside Wild Cards
**Dylan Harper** and **Ace Bailey** would likely be considered the second and third best prospects in this draft based purely on talent and potential. However, they played together at Rutgers on a team that finished with a losing record (15-17 overall, 8-12 in Big Ten play). While it`s fair to question why two such talented players didn`t lead their team to more wins, especially with Harper at point guard, I don`t anticipate their team`s record significantly impacting their draft position.
Harper is, in my opinion, the second-best prospect available. He`s a long-armed scorer capable of finishing at all three levels, a refined offensive player with excellent footwork, and a skilled shot creator. Harper is particularly effective in pick-and-roll situations and makes smart reads. His deep shooting isn`t yet consistent (33% from three), but his mechanics are sound. He is a dedicated worker but still needs to develop into an impactful defender, despite his length and build.
Bailey fits the profile of a high-risk, high-reward player. Few prospects match his ceiling or his ability to make tough, contested jump shots, especially pull-ups under pressure. He demonstrated his scoring ability with outbursts of 39 points against Indiana and 38 against Northwestern. While questions about his maturity have been raised, he is only 18 years old, and his raw talent is undeniable. Given Harper`s talent and skill profile, no team picking second should pass on him, even San Antonio, despite their need for shooting (not Harper`s strength). Bailey should follow shortly after, expected to be drafted anywhere from third to eighth.
