Betting on golf is a captivating and challenging endeavor, much like facing a crucial putt with friends watching. While numerous betting options exist for tournaments, simply picking outright winners without a strategy can lead to financial losses.
This guide offers a structured approach to building a betting strategy like a professional, balancing risk and reward to stay competitive until the final round.
When betting on golf, consider these key factors: course fit, current form, and course history.
- Course fit refers to how well a golfer`s skills match the course layout, whether it favors power hitters, precise players, or putting specialists.
- Current form examines recent performance, momentum, and confidence, as a player performing well recently is generally a better bet than one struggling to find their rhythm.
- Course history relates to a player`s comfort level at a particular course, influenced by factors like grass type or past successes. Ideally, all three factors align. However, successful betting often involves identifying value and prioritizing one factor over others.
Understanding Golf Betting Options
Golf betting goes beyond just predicting the winner. Many betting types offer various risk levels, allowing you to profit even if your main pick doesn`t win. Here`s a summary of popular wagers:
Outright Winner
This classic bet involves picking the tournament winner. Golf tournaments have large fields, resulting in high odds, but also lower chances of winning. While a 30-1 bet can be exciting, outright wins are infrequent.
Top Finishes (Top-5, Top-10, Top-20)
These are more conservative bets, with Top-20 being the most probable. Instead of needing a win, the golfer must finish within a specified range. A Top-20 bet at +120 might seem less exciting, but consistent wins can maintain your bankroll while you aim for outright wins occasionally.
A 30-1 outright winner has a 3.2% implied win probability, compared to a Top-20 bet at +200 with a 33% probability. Bet less on long odds and more on higher-probability wagers.
First-Round Leader
This bet focuses on who leads after the first 18 holes. First-round leader odds often start at 20-1 or higher. Key factors include early tee times, calm weather, and aggressive playing styles. If you believe a player might win the tournament, consider a smaller bet on them leading after the first round. A win here can provide funds for further betting throughout the tournament.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Matchup bets involve choosing one golfer to outperform another, either for a single round or the entire tournament. This is a more controlled betting method. Full tournament matchups are preferred for a broader perspective over four days, compared to the higher volatility of single-round matchups. Three-ball matchups are also available, similar to head-to-head but with three players, offering longer odds with increased risk.
Props and Majors-Only Markets
Major tournaments offer a wider variety of bets, some common weekly and others exclusive to major events:
- Top Nationality (e.g., Top American, Top European): Betting on the highest-finishing player from a specific region.
- Hole-in-One?: A straightforward yes/no bet on whether a hole-in-one will occur.
- Lowest/Highest Round: Betting on whether a player will achieve a very low or high score in a round.
- Make the Cut Parlays: Combining multiple players to make the tournament cut.
Structuring Your Betting Card and Bet Sizing
Random betting is not a winning strategy. Avoid placing equal bets on everything. Instead, structure your betting around two or three key players, using different bet types to balance risk and potential reward. Adjust bet sizes based on the odds.
Top-20 bets offer consistency, providing frequent wins to stabilize your bankroll. Top-10 and Top-5 bets could be smaller, and outright winner bets even smaller due to their lower probability. First-round leader bets are high-risk, high-reward, allowing for smaller bet sizes with significant potential returns. Diversifying bets across markets keeps you engaged throughout the tournament. Even if your outright pick falters, a Top-20 bet can still win. Smaller bets on long odds are crucial to avoid rapid losses.
If betting on multiple players (five or more), balance your total stake to avoid over-committing to a single golfer. Increase the number of players, adjust individual bet sizes to manage overall risk.
Major Golf Tournaments
The Players Championship: March 13-16, TPC Sawgrass
The Players Championship is a highly anticipated event, often considered a major due to its strong field, large prize money, and challenging TPC Sawgrass course. Its history and the iconic island green on the 17th hole contribute to its significance.
Majors
Masters Tournament: April 10-13, Augusta National Golf Club
PGA Championship: May 15-18, Quail Hollow Club
U.S. Open: June 12-15, Oakmont Country Club
The Open Championship: July 17-20, Royal Portrush
Successful golf betting involves discipline and using it to enhance your enjoyment of the sport. Expect losses. Consistent outright winner picks are unrealistic. However, strategic bet structuring, risk management, and market diversification can lead to profitability and sustained excitement throughout the golf weekend.
2025 Masters Betting Picks
Corey Conners Top-20 Finish (+155)
Corey Conners has improved his putting and short game, complementing his strong ball-striking. Despite past less successful Masters appearances, he had prior Top-10 finishes at Augusta. His current form and consistent tee-to-green play make a Top-20 finish a solid bet, especially with softer green conditions favoring his strengths.
Jon Rahm Top-10 Finish (+170)
Jon Rahm`s T45 finish at the previous Masters was an anomaly during a period of weaker form. He has since regained his top form. Despite playing on the LIV tour, Rahm`s overall talent and strong Masters history, including a win and multiple Top-10s, make him a strong contender for a Top-10 finish.
Collin Morikawa Top-10 Finish (+125)
Collin Morikawa is a strong contender for the Masters win. He has shown increasing comfort at Augusta, improving his putting each year. He has consistently finished in the Top 10 at the Masters for the past two years. His excellent ball-striking and suitability to potentially rainy conditions make him a valuable bet.
How to Wager on Rory McIlroy
Rory McIlroy is a top player with mental readiness and statistical excellence. While outright win bets might seem risky due to pressure and past Masters history, a strategic approach is recommended. Consider waiting to see his first-round performance and potentially betting live for better odds, especially if the course softens due to rain. McIlroy`s ball-striking is a major advantage in softer conditions. Alternatively, place a smaller pre-tournament bet and add to it with a live bet based on his Thursday performance. Consider Top-10 live bets as well.
