Betting on golf tournaments can be a complex, exciting, and sometimes frustrating experience, much like facing a crucial short putt with friends watching. There are numerous ways to place wagers, but simply picking potential winners blindly is likely to deplete your funds quickly.
Instead, here’s a detailed approach to structuring your bets smartly, balancing potential gains and risks to keep you engaged and profitable throughout the tournament weekend.
When considering golf bets, three main elements are often crucial: suitability for the course, recent performance, and historical results on that course.
- Course suitability refers to how well a golfer`s skills match the course design – whether it favors powerful hitters, requires precise shots, or comes down to putting ability.
- Recent performance examines current outcomes, player confidence, and momentum. A golfer who played exceptionally well last week is generally a better prospect than one struggling with their game.
- Course history provides a comfort factor; some players consistently perform well at specific venues, perhaps due to the turf type or positive past experiences. The ideal scenario is when all three factors align. However, successful betting often requires finding value by prioritizing one factor over others.
Understand your betting options
Golf betting offers more choices than just picking the champion. There are various ways to bet, some safer than others. By strategically combining different bets, you can still achieve a return even if your top choice doesn`t win. Here is a quick guide to popular bet types:
Outright winner
This is the traditional bet on which player will finish first. Given the large number of competitors in golf events, the odds for outright winners are typically high, reflecting the difficulty of hitting such a bet. While betting on a long shot (e.g., 30-1 odds) can be appealing, relying solely on outright winner bets often leads to losing weekends.
Top-5, top-10, and top-20 finishes
These are less risky wagers. Betting on a top-20 finish offers the highest probability of success among these options. Instead of needing a player to win, they only need to end up within the specified rank range. While a top-20 bet at +120 might not seem as exciting as an outright winner, consistently cashing these bets is vital for maintaining your betting balance while you also place smaller bets on potential champions.
A golfer with 30-1 odds to win has only about a 3.2% implied chance of winning. In contrast, a top-20 bet at +200 offers roughly a 33% implied probability. This significant difference explains why placing smaller bets on long odds and larger bets on higher-probability outcomes is a common strategy.
First-round leader
This bet adds excitement as it focuses only on the first 18 holes. Since first-round leader odds are often high (20-1 or more), it`s advisable to bet small amounts (fractions of your standard bet unit). Factors like early tee times, calm weather, and players known for aggressive scoring are key considerations. If you like a player`s chances overall, it makes sense to risk a little on them starting strong. If successful, you might cover the cost of your other bets for the tournament.
Head-to-head matchups
Compared to the high risk of picking an outright winner, matchup bets are much more controlled. You simply choose one golfer to perform better than another, either for a single round or over the entire tournament. Betting on the full tournament matchup is generally less volatile as it accounts for performance over four days rather than the unpredictability of a single round. Three-ball matchups involve picking one player to beat two others, offering higher odds but also increased risk.
Props and majors-only markets
Major tournaments offer a wider variety of special bets. Some are available weekly, while others are unique to the biggest events:
- Top American, top European, etc.: Predicting the best finisher from a specific nationality or region.
- Will there be a hole-in-one?: A simple bet on whether this rare event will occur. It`s always entertaining to watch for.
- Lowest round, highest round: Wagering on exceptionally low or high single-round scores during the tournament.
- Make the cut parlays: Combining predictions for multiple players to successfully make it to the weekend rounds.
Structuring your betting card and managing your bet size
Placing bets randomly without a plan is not a strategy; it`s a quick way to run out of money before the final round. Betting the same amount on every outcome, regardless of the odds, is also inefficient. Instead, it`s recommended to build your betting strategy around a few selected players and combine different bet types to manage risk and reward.
Since golf odds vary significantly, the size of your bet should reflect the probability. For example, top-20 bets offer consistency and help maintain your bankroll. Top-10 and top-5 bets might use half of your standard bet amount, while outright winners, being much harder to predict, could use smaller amounts (e.g., 0.2 to 0.25 units). First-round leader bets are high risk but offer high reward, also suitable for smaller bet sizes. Spreading your bets across different markets keeps you involved throughout the tournament. Even if your outright pick falters, a top-20 bet could still pay off. Betting too much on long shots when you hit a losing streak can quickly deplete your funds.
If you are betting on several players (five or more), your total investment needs to be balanced. As you add more players, you should reduce the bet size on each individual player to control your overall exposure.
PGA Tour`s biggest tournaments: The four majors and golf`s `fifth major`
Like any form of gambling, betting on golf requires discipline and should ideally enhance your enjoyment of watching the sport. It can be challenging, and expecting to win every week by picking an outright champion is unrealistic. However, by structuring your bets wisely, managing risk, and diversifying across different markets, you can increase your chances of staying profitable and enjoy the excitement through the final hole.
PGA Championship: May 15-18, Quail Hollow Club
U.S. Open: June 12-15, Oakmont Country Club
The Open Championship: July 17-20, Royal Portrush
Masters Tournament: Rory McIlroy (-11, won in playoff)
The Players Championship: Rory McIlroy (-12, won in playoff)
With one of the strongest fields, a significant prize pool, and the challenging TPC Sawgrass course, The Players Championship is widely considered golf`s `fifth major`. Although not officially classified as a major, its history, drama, and iconic holes like the 17th island green make it a standout event.
Bets to make on the 2025 PGA Championship
Quail Hollow course challenges players to be both aggressive and strategic. It rewards those who take calculated risks off the tee and can manage difficult shots effectively. Success here goes to players who know when to push forward and when to play conservatively. For this PGA Championship, consider players who are confident taking chances while remaining steady under pressure. Winners at Quail Hollow are typically strong drivers, skilled with long irons, and effective at recovering when they miss.
| Scottie Scheffler | +450 |
| Rory McIlroy | +475 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +850 |
This year, the tournament feels like a potential clash between Rory McIlroy and players from LIV Golf, setting the stage for a compelling battle. McIlroy has a strong track record, current form, and extensive knowledge of this course. He has been highly successful here, including winning his first PGA title in 2010 and the Wells Fargo Championship in 2024. LIV players like Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm arrive with motivation, but they are competing on McIlroy`s familiar ground. This event involves more than just skill; it`s about performance under pressure and making a statement. If there`s a venue where Rory McIlroy is likely to assert his dominance, it`s Quail Hollow.
Let’s look at some potential bets for golf`s second major.
My favorite bets
Rory McIlroy Top 5 (+110) and win (+475)
While picking the second-favorite might seem obvious, McIlroy at Quail Hollow is like putting a lion back in its natural habitat. He knows every detail of this course. He`s won here multiple times, including his first PGA Championship in 2010 and the 2024 Wells Fargo Championship. His combination of driving distance and ability to score well on par-5s makes him ideally suited for the layout. Quail Hollow benefits aggressive drivers who can shape their shots, and McIlroy`s high fade shot fits the course perfectly.
Fresh off a victory at the 2025 Masters, where he demonstrated his ability to win a major under significant pressure and navigate tournament challenges, McIlroy`s confidence is high. His putting, sometimes considered a weaker area, has been reliable recently. If this continues into Charlotte, he could potentially dominate the field. His approach play has been excellent; he ranks fourth in strokes gained in approach over his last 32 rounds.
Quail Hollow`s greens can be challenging, but when McIlroy is in form, his confident stroke on fast surfaces is a major asset. He is ranked second overall in strokes gained from tee to green and excels with long irons, which are essential on a course stretching over 7,500 yards. His outstanding ball-striking and familiarity with the course make him a strong candidate for both a Top 5 finish and the outright win.
For the Masters, I suggested waiting for better live odds after Round 1. This time, taking the pre-tournament odds is advisable given his historical dominance here. If the outright odds seem too low for your preference, betting on a Top 5 finish is a solid alternative.
Scottie Scheffler Top 5 (+105)
Scottie Scheffler`s consistency travels well.
There are only two players I`d feel truly confident betting on for a Top 5: Rory and Scottie. Scheffler is incredibly consistent. He`s been exceptionally strong all season, achieving numerous top finishes in elite competitions, including three Top 5s in his last four starts, highlighted by a dominant win at the RBC Heritage with a total score of 31 under par. He currently possesses the best tee-to-green game on Tour and leads in strokes gained total. This level of consistency is effective everywhere, even at Quail Hollow, where he is making his PGA Tour debut. This might seem risky, but his form warrants it.
His recent improvement in putting is a significant advantage. Even when not performing at his absolute peak, his exceptional ball-striking keeps him in contention.
Considering his excellent form, recent win, and ability to handle major pressure, betting on Scottie Scheffler for a Top 5 at plus odds (+105) appears to be a well-calculated risk.
Jon Rahm Top 20 (-105)
Betting on Jon Rahm for a Top 20 finish at the PGA Championship makes strategic sense. Quail Hollow suits his playing style. He drives the ball powerfully, is accurate with long irons, and can navigate challenging course conditions effectively. He ranks ninth in driving distance and eleventh in accuracy, allowing him to hit long while keeping the ball in play, which is vital for this course. Unlike the Masters, where he unexpectedly lost strokes on approach (only his second time this year), Quail Hollow rewards his reliable tee-to-green game. Rahm`s long game is typically very strong, and this course setup allows him to rely on this strength without being overly penalized for a rare off day with his irons. The -105 odds seem favorable for a player who has finished in the Top 15 in five of his last ten major appearances.
Corey Conners Top 20 (+200)
Corey Conners consistently impresses with his game. His tee-to-green play is excellent, ranking sixth in the field, which is a major advantage at Quail Hollow. His driving accuracy (17th) is particularly useful here, especially when the rough is thick and challenging. Additionally, his strong long iron play, especially from 200-225 yards (eighth), gives him an edge on the longer par 4s. While his putting can be inconsistent, he doesn`t need an exceptional week on the greens to finish in the top 20. At +200, there`s significant value on a player whose game is well-suited for this course and who has achieved six Top 20 finishes in his last seven starts. The implied probability at +200 seems too low for a player of his capability on this course.
Full tournament head-to-head
Rory McIlroy (-125) vs. Bryson DeChambeau
This matchup is about consistency. McIlroy`s game is reliable over four rounds on a demanding course like Quail Hollow, while DeChambeau can be more unpredictable, as seen at Augusta where he started exceptionally well but struggled on the final day. When DeChambeau`s driving becomes inconsistent or his putting falters, his scores can suffer significantly. McIlroy`s history at Quail Hollow and his balanced game provide him with an advantage. While Bryson might drive the ball farther, Rory`s combination of distance and accuracy makes him the more reliable choice over the tournament.
Jon Rahm (-135) vs. Collin Morikawa
On a course extending over 7,500 yards, Rahm`s ability to hit the ball long while maintaining accuracy is a key strength. Even when not at his absolute best, Rahm typically manages a respectable finish through sheer grinding. Morikawa, conversely, can struggle if his putting or short game isn`t sharp. This potential for inconsistency makes him a riskier bet in a head-to-head matchup. Betting on Rahm means relying on a powerful player with accuracy who can minimize errors, which is crucial for four rounds at Quail Hollow.
How to bet Bryson DeChambeau
Waiting until after Round 1 to bet on Bryson DeChambeau could be the way to go.
It`s understandable to like DeChambeau`s chances to win this tournament. His aggressive driving style is well-suited for Quail Hollow, and if he`s in control, he can certainly overpower the course.
However, betting on him for a Top 10 finish at +110 might not offer the best value. DeChambeau`s performance can change quickly: when his game is on point, he`s dominant, but issues with his driver or putter can quickly put him out of contention. A potentially better strategy is to observe how he performs in Round 1 before placing a bet. If he shows good form, you might find more favorable odds for a Top 10 or even a Top 5 finish later in the tournament.
