The world of Formula 1 thrives on speculation, particularly regarding driver movements. While Max Verstappen is under contract with Red Bull Racing until 2028, recent comments from Team Principal Christian Horner have added a fresh layer of intrigue regarding the Dutchman`s future, specifically looking towards the significant regulation changes arriving in 2026.
Speaking recently, Horner conceded that while Red Bull currently enjoys a strong relationship with their star driver and expects him to stay, stating with absolute certainty that Verstappen will still be with the team in 2026 is, perhaps surprisingly, “impossible to say 100 per cent.”
This comes amidst circulating rumours, notably intensified by reports from Sky Italy ahead of the British Grand Prix weekend, suggesting that discussions between Verstappen`s camp and Mercedes are gaining momentum. Mercedes boss Toto Wolff and driver George Russell have themselves acknowledged “conversations” with Verstappen, adding fuel to the fire of a potential seismic shift in the driver market.
Understanding the Nuance
Horner`s statement might seem alarming at first glance, particularly given Verstappen`s string of championship successes with the team. However, his full comments provide context. He asserted that if “things stay as they are,” Verstappen would “100 per cent” be with Red Bull next year (2025). The uncertainty appears tied more directly to the landscape beyond that, particularly the 2026 season.
Furthermore, Horner subtly deflected by questioning the certainty of George Russell`s long-term tenure at Mercedes – a perhaps pointed, slightly ironic retort suggesting that in the fluid world of F1 contracts and personnel, nothing is ever truly set in stone years in advance.
It has been reported that Verstappen`s extensive contract contains performance clauses. For the first time publicly, Horner confirmed the existence of such mechanisms within the agreement, though he maintained the specifics remain confidential. Crucially, Sky Sports News has indicated a clause allowing Verstappen to potentially leave Red Bull after the 2025 season if he is not positioned within the top four of the Drivers` Championship standings by the summer break (following the Hungarian Grand Prix).
Currently, Verstappen sits third, with a points cushion over Russell and Charles Leclerc. While a sudden, dramatic drop out of the top four seems unlikely given the current season`s performance trends, the very existence and public acknowledgement of such a clause introduces a measurable metric against the driver`s commitment.
Looking Towards 2026 and Beyond
The backdrop to this speculation is the looming overhaul of Formula 1 regulations in 2026, featuring radically different car designs and, crucially for Red Bull, a new power unit project. Red Bull is embarking on building its own engines in partnership with Ford, a significant undertaking that represents a major shift from their current customer engine status (using Honda technology).
Historical precedent suggests that new engine manufacturers often face a steep learning curve and may not immediately arrive at the front of the grid. This inherent uncertainty about Red Bull`s performance level under the new regulations is undoubtedly a factor in any driver`s long-term decision-making process, especially for a driver accustomed to fighting for championships.
Horner is aware of this challenge but expressed confidence in the Red Bull Powertrains project. He highlighted the strategic advantage of having chassis and engine development integrated “under one roof,” facilitating seamless communication and packaging – a benefit they currently lack. While he tempered expectations, admitting it would be “embarrassing for Mercedes if we were [ahead]” immediately in 2026, he believes the project positions Red Bull strongly for 2027, 2028, and the subsequent era.
Conclusion
Despite the external noise and the tantalizing prospect of Verstappen potentially partnering Russell at Mercedes, Christian Horner insists that internally, clarity exists regarding Max`s intentions to drive for Red Bull in 2026. However, his candid admission about the impossibility of 100 per cent certainty, coupled with the confirmation of performance-based clauses, underscores a fundamental truth in F1: contracts, no matter how long, often contain mechanisms or implicit understandings that tie a driver`s future to a team`s competitive trajectory. The true test of Red Bull`s ability to retain Verstappen in the long run will likely hinge on their success in navigating the significant technical challenges presented by the 2026 regulations and proving they can continue to provide a championship-contending package.
