The FIFA Club World Cup field has been cut in half, and despite some surprises during the group phase, the knockout stage brackets largely reflect pre-tournament expectations.
Certainly, Atletico Madrid`s early exit was unexpected, but Group B was always seen as particularly challenging, with two European heavyweights increasing the potential for an upset. Other surprising results occurred, like Chelsea`s defeat to Flamengo or Benfica overcoming Bayern Munich. However, by the end of the group stage, only three UEFA representatives were eliminated, while the five wealthiest clubs successfully advanced. They are joined by the team featuring Lionel Messi and another capable of acquiring expensive Spanish veterans.
This tournament doesn`t appear to be one where underdogs will thrive. But among the remaining elite teams, who is the strongest contender to win it all? Here are the surviving 16 teams, ranked based on their perceived probability of lifting the Club World Cup trophy. It`s worth noting again that draw complexity matters significantly, especially for teams like Inter Miami. Let`s get started:
1. Manchester City (+1)
As the only team with a perfect record in the group stage, Manchester City has quickly integrated their new signings and managed Rodri`s playing time effectively, potentially bringing him back to peak form for the upcoming Premier League season. Following City`s 5-2 victory over Juventus, Pep Guardiola commented, `It has been a long, long time since we had a performance like this on and off the ball.` He added, `The players were committed and we are happy to beat a top side. This is just one game, but I think the players felt again what it was like to be a good team.` He`s right. Coupled with a favorable draw, they appear to be the team everyone else must overcome.
2. Paris Saint-Germain (-1)
There`s very little separating the top two teams; perhaps the difference lies simply in the impression PSG gave off during their defeat to Botafogo. This team looked like they had reached their peak after winning the Champions League and don`t seem overly concerned about losing Club World Cup games now that they`ve achieved a historic first for the club.
3. Real Madrid (–)
Clearly still a work in progress compared to the teams ranked higher, Xabi Alonso`s squad also hasn`t faced a truly difficult challenge in the competition so far. Their comfortable win against Salzburg is a good sign, however, and based on the last round of matches, Juventus shouldn`t pose a significant threat, offering a relatively straightforward path to the semifinals. The main question is whether their tactical system and strongest lineup will be fully settled by the time that stage arrives.
4. Chelsea (+2)
Enzo Maresca`s side hasn`t played particularly well throughout this tournament and arguably deserved to be defeated by Flamengo. However, they have benefited from significant luck, particularly due to Andreas Schjelderup`s goal securing Benfica first place over Bayern Munich. This stroke of fortune has placed Chelsea in a considerably more favorable section of the draw, although both Benfica and the winner of the Palmeiras vs. Botafogo match could present significant tests. They should be considered favorites to reach the semifinal stage, and from there, anything is possible.
5. Bayern Munich (-1)
Anyone who ended the European season with some doubts about Bayern`s quality will likely find those doubts reinforced by their Club World Cup performance. They comfortably defeated the team they were expected to crush but struggled against opponents only slightly below their level. Perhaps their drop in ranking is simply a consequence of missing several clear chances, but there`s a genuine risk that if this profligacy continues, Flamengo could punish them.
6. Inter (-1)
The intense confrontation between Inter and River Plate at the final whistle in Seattle highlighted a competitive edge often missing in the Club World Cup; this tournament clearly offers a chance for redemption for a club feeling the sting of near misses in Serie A and the Champions League. It`s certainly possible that the toll of these high-stakes games will affect Cristian Chivu`s team as the competition progresses, especially given the difficulty they had in finishing atop Group E.
7. Borussia Dortmund (–)
Dortmund has benefited from a favorable draw, earning a manageable fixture against Monterrey as a reward for successfully navigating a very kind Group F. Is the ultimate outcome of this good fortune similar to their 2024 Champions League campaign, where they were ultimately swept aside by Real Madrid regardless of how well they played? Probably.
8. Benfica (+1)
Benfica is one of several teams in this competition whose true strength is difficult to assess after only three matches. At the time, their 2-2 comeback draw against Boca Juniors seemed like an underwhelming result. Now that we understand how tough South American opponents are (particularly Brazilian teams), does that result look more impressive? Did Benfica merely get lucky against Bayern Munich? Perhaps, but if they manage to defeat Chelsea, their credentials might need to be taken more seriously.
9. Fluminense (+7)
In our pre-tournament power rankings, we suggested that Fluminense appeared to lack the attacking flair of the other Brazilian sides. What we underestimated was the potential strength of their defense; the 1.7 expected goals (xG) allowed by them is bettered only by Bayern Munich. It`s fair to say their draw has been kind, and it might be again facing a seemingly tired Inter side. Their upcoming match could be another candidate for an upset.
10. Palmeiras (+1)
Considering the high expectations we had for Palmeiras entering this competition, it`s hard to shake the feeling that they are the Brazilian team that has impressed the least. Nevertheless, they remain undefeated and have likely just been somewhat unlucky in front of goal. If young talents Willian Estevao and Vitor Roque can click, this team could potentially emerge victorious from what we`re calling `Chelsea`s quadrant of favorability`.
11. Botafogo (+13)
After producing the biggest shock of the tournament with their win over PSG, Botafogo demonstrated composure against Atletico Madrid. Needing to keep the margin of defeat below three goals is a more challenging task than it might seem, and Fogo relied heavily on goalkeeper John Victor and their defensive unit, all of whom have performed commendably in this competition. A solid defense is often key to tournament success, although averaging more than two xG against per game is a concern. Then again, it might be some time before Botafogo faces another team as strong as the ones they encountered in the group stage (excluding the Seattle Sounders, of course).
12. Juventus (-2)
Talk about a harsh reality check. Perhaps the scale of their 5-2 loss to Manchester City, coming after confident wins against Al-Ain and Wydad Casablanca, can be somewhat excused by the six changes made by Igor Tudor, who was reluctant to criticize his players too harshly given they had already secured qualification. However, their failure to even secure a draw means they face Real Madrid in the Round of 16. This is likely where their tournament ends.
13. Flamengo (–)
This ranking feels unfairly low. Flamengo might have been the most impressive Brazilian team in the competition. Jorginho has been outstanding in midfield, and Gonzalo Plata was a thrilling breakout star in their victory over Chelsea. The only significant problem is that this win catapulted them into the toughest side of the bracket. Their potential route to the final likely involves facing Bayern Munich, Paris Saint-Germain, and Real Madrid. Earning one more shock victory doesn`t seem beyond Filipe Luis`s side, but achieving three such upsets is difficult to envision.
14. Monterrey (+8)
Former Guardiola assistant Domenec Torrent has quickly made his mark in the Monterrey dugout, leading his side to an unbeaten run of three games where they proved incredibly resilient against more talented opponents like Inter and River Plate. Following those performances, they simply needed to get the job done, which they did in style against Urawa Red Diamonds with a convincing 4-0 win, eliminating any concerns about results in other matches.
15. Al-Hilal (–)
The Kobe Bryant speech Al-Hilal shared on social media after their 2-0 victory reflects the mindset of the Saudi giants heading into the knockout stages: `Job`s not finished.` The signing of Theo Hernandez represents another effort to strengthen Simone Inzaghi`s squad with top talent, and their draw against Real Madrid offers a glimmer of hope. However, their meeting with Manchester City, carrying significant geopolitical weight, is unlikely to go in their favor.
16. Inter Miami (+2)
Inter Miami might have the greatest player the game has ever seen on their roster, but they simply aren`t going to get past Paris Saint-Germain, potentially Bayern Munich, possibly Real Madrid, and then maybe Manchester City. Absolutely not.
