The NBA journey for Cooper Flagg has officially begun. The Duke standout, widely regarded as one of the top prospects of the last twenty-five years, was, as anticipated, selected first overall by the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday evening.
What level of performance can fantasy basketball managers anticipate from him in his debut season?
We`ll first examine his potential fit within the current Mavericks roster structure. Following that, we`ll draw brief comparisons to historical players possessing similar skill profiles. Lastly, we`ll offer recommendations on where to draft Flagg in upcoming fantasy leagues.
Cooper Flagg`s Role with the Mavericks
The Dallas Mavericks present an unusual opportunity for a rookie forward, more significant than typically found on a contending team. The recent trade of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving`s unfortunate torn ACL injury leave the team reliant on their strong frontcourt (Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively II, Daniel Gafford, P.J. Washington) and perimeter shooters (Klay Thompson, Spencer Dinwiddie, Max Christie), but notably deficient in wing playmaking and scoring.
Consequently, Flagg might be thrust into a central offensive role right away, likely receiving significant minutes and ball-handling responsibilities from the start. Combining this immediate need with Flagg`s exceptional talent – ESPN NBA analyst Bobby Marks even suggested he could have been productive in the league at age 16 – positions Flagg for an immediate, impactful statistical output.
Further insights into Flagg`s potential will emerge this summer, particularly once the Mavericks` roster is finalized post-free agency. We are also likely to see Flagg make his professional debut in the NBA Summer League in Las Vegas.
These developments will inform our official projections for Flagg`s first NBA season, scheduled for release later this year.
However, based on his collegiate performance, we already have a strong indication of Flagg`s expected contributions. These suggest he will be an instant impact player in fantasy basketball.
Comparing Flagg to Duke Standouts
Grant Hill Comparisons
Similar to Hill, Flagg joins the NBA as a large wing forward possessing impressive physical attributes and a diverse skill set that allows him to contribute offensively and defensively. Hill, however, was a more seasoned prospect, having completed four years at Duke and beginning his NBA career at 22. Despite being significantly younger at 18, Flagg`s statistics from his freshman year at Duke closely mirror Hill`s senior year numbers, suggesting Flagg is remarkably prepared for the professional level.
Jayson Tatum Comparisons
Jayson Tatum is another prominent big wing, exhibiting the physique of a forward but the style of a guard, tending towards scoring over natural playmaking compared to Hill. Flagg appears to bridge the stylistic gap between these two former Duke stars. Though not possessing Hill`s natural point-forward abilities, Flagg demonstrates superior creation and passing skills compared to Tatum upon entering the league. Conversely, while Flagg must refine his shooting to match Tatum`s current level, he arrives in the NBA with a better shooting foundation than either Hill or Tatum did out of Duke.
Here is a comparison of each of these players’ final season at Duke:
| Player | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | 3P | FG% | FT% | 3P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hill | 17.4 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 46.0 | 69.4 | 37.9 |
| Tatum | 16.8 | 7.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 45.2 | 85.4 | 35.0 |
| Flagg | 19.2 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 48.5 | 82.8 | 38.9 |
And this chart shows the rookie numbers for Tatum and Flagg, with projections for Flagg`s rookie season based upon his numbers having a similar college-to-pro transition as his predecessors:
| Player | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | 3P | FG% | FT% | 3P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hill | 19.9 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 48.0 | 72.6 | 25.0 |
| Tatum | 13.9 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 48.1 | 84.4 | 43.3 |
| Flagg | 19.0 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 51.1 | 84.0 | 36.4 |
Fantasy Basketball Draft Outlook
The projection for Flagg`s three-point statistics was adjusted, reflecting the modern NBA`s emphasis on outside shooting, where a decrease in volume upon entering the league is improbable. This projection might even be cautious regarding his potential three-point output, but overall, these figures serve as a useful illustration of the performance level expected from Flagg in his rookie season.
These projected statistics position him as a likely top-40 fantasy asset in his debut year.
In standard points leagues, these averages would place Flagg around the 28th overall rank. For players eligible at small forward, this puts him in the range of players like Jaylen Brown and Franz Wagner.
In category-based leagues, Flagg`s expected versatile production, combined with favorable percentages and manageable turnovers, is sufficient to rank him within the top 25. Among small forwards in this format, he falls within the range occupied by players such as Kevin Durant (ranked 16th) and Jalen Williams (ranked 30th).
Consequently, fantasy managers should target Flagg within the first four rounds of their drafts.
