Duke’s Cooper Flagg: NBA Draft Executives Share Their Views

Cooper Flagg, Duke’s talented freshman, has been consistently ranked as the top prospect for the 2025 NBA draft for over a year.

Despite starting the season as the expected first overall pick, his performance has only strengthened his position. He has particularly excelled in the ACC league games, especially after turning 18 in late December. Duke, under coach Jon Scheyer, challenged Flagg to lead their young team, facing several top-25 opponents early in the season.

In 20 conference games, Flagg averaged impressive stats: 21.2 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 4.4 assists. Named ACC player and rookie of the year, and also recognized as an All-American, Flagg has demonstrated his skills as a playmaker, smart decision-maker, and shooter. He is one of only four freshmen in Division I basketball over the last 25 years to achieve 20 points per game with 50% shooting from the field and 40% from three-point range in conference play, according to ESPN Research.

Flagg suffered an ankle injury in the ACC tournament, causing him to miss part of Duke’s journey to the title. However, he stated he expects to be fully recovered for the NCAA tournament, where Duke is a top seed and a favorite to reach the Final Four. Their first game is against Mount St. Mary’s on Friday.

According to ten NBA general managers, executives, and scouts, the gap between Flagg and other prospects in the 2025 draft has grown significantly in recent months. Discussions among these executives now focus on what to expect from Flagg as a rookie and how he compares to previous No. 1 picks.

We interviewed these NBA executives, promising anonymity to ensure honest feedback, to gain deeper insights into Flagg’s appeal, areas for improvement, and expectations for the NCAA tournament. They also discussed the possibility of Flagg returning to Duke for his sophomore year, a question raised after Duke’s final regular-season victory against North Carolina.

Regardless of his future plans, Flagg has lived up to the high expectations set when he arrived at Duke nine months prior.

One executive from the Western Conference commented that Flagg is as ready for the NBA as any top pick in the last decade, if not more so.

Flagg’s Strengths and Comparisons to Past Top Picks

NBA executives agree that Flagg’s approach to the game, marked by intense competitiveness, is both unique and highly valuable for his future NBA team.

An Eastern Conference executive highlighted Flagg’s ability to contribute to winning. Information gathered from coaches, teammates, and trainers consistently points to his drive to win, which fuels him daily.

This intense and winning-focused mentality is rare and highly sought after in an 18-year-old, especially for teams looking to improve after disappointing seasons.

Describing Flagg as a relentless competitor, the same executive added that he challenges his teammates to match his energy and commitment to winning.

While Flagg’s offensive growth is notable, scouts emphasize his defensive impact as a key aspect of his game. He is projected to be a versatile defender, capable of guarding multiple positions effectively, and a significant playmaker on defense, creating turnovers and protecting the basket with his intensity and timing. Scouts attribute this largely to his consistent effort and approach.

A Western Conference scout noted Flagg’s ability to cut off angles and quickly recover defensively, along with his strong instincts around the rim and agile perimeter defense.

Early in the season, scouts already considered Flagg among the top prospects in recent drafts, though acknowledging Victor Wembanyama as an exceptional case.

One Western Conference scout mentioned that while team preferences vary, Flagg is in the top tier of prospects after Wembanyama.

Zion Williamson, another Duke player and the No. 1 pick in 2019, is the most recent college player to generate similar hype. While Williamson’s style, built on strength and explosiveness, differs from Flagg, Flagg’s performance has put him in the same conversation regarding expectations at the professional level.

Flagg and Previous No. 1 Draft Picks

Comparison of freshman year stats (adjusted per 40 minutes) between Cooper Flagg and recent No. 1 picks who played college basketball: Zion Williamson, Anthony Edwards, Cade Cunningham, and Paolo Banchero. Advanced stats like NET Rating and Box Plus-Minus reflect defensive contributions.

• Flagg, Duke: 20.8 PPG, 10.1 RPG, 5.6 APG, 41.1 NET, 15.4 BPM
• Banchero, Duke: 20.8 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 3.8 APG, 15.8 NET, 7.1 BPM
• Cunningham, OSU: 21.7 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 3.7 APG, 9.5 NET, 7.4 BPM
• Edwards, Georgia: 21.8 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 3.3 APG, 1.5 NET, 4.9 BPM
• Williamson, Duke: 28.5 PPG, 11.2 RPG, 2.6 APG, 45.7 NET, 18.7 BPM

While Flagg’s raw stats are not quite as high as Williamson’s historic freshman season, his advanced stats, including a 41.1 net rating and 15.4 box plus-minus, highlight his significant impact, especially defensively. Notably, Flagg’s assist-to-turnover ratio is better than Williamson and other recent top picks, indicating his playmaking and unselfishness.

Flagg’s college performance, supported by both statistics and scouting observations, strengthens his draft prospects, especially when compared to NBA stars.

One Western Conference general manager mentioned Kawhi Leonard as the best comparison for Flagg, noting similarities in their two-way versatility, passing, and defensive abilities across multiple positions.

While acknowledging differences from Leonard at the same age, the GM highlighted Flagg’s potential due to his confidence, work ethic, physicality, basketball IQ, and physical tools, qualities that helped Leonard become an MVP candidate and a champion.

Comparing Flagg to a young Kawhi Leonard, who was initially seen as a defensive specialist, the GM pointed out Flagg’s advantages: better shooting, passing, and overall game as a freshman.

Flagg’s Weaknesses

A primary concern among NBA executives is Flagg’s performance in high-pressure, late-game situations.

One executive from a Western Conference playoff team questioned Flagg’s ability to create shots in crucial moments and be a primary offensive option in crunch time. Early in the season, he seemed more comfortable in the mid-post, relying on physicality and set moves, which sometimes appeared predictable.

The same Eastern Conference GM who praised Flagg’s strengths recalled instances where Flagg turned the ball over in critical moments, such as in Duke’s loss to Kentucky.

Despite these concerns about handling pressure and late-game execution, executives generally agree that Flagg will continue to develop these areas.

A Western Conference executive noted Flagg’s improved ball-handling and shooting, stating that while these areas still need refinement, they are no longer significant weaknesses. He praised Flagg’s exceptional feel for the game.

Flagg’s Impact on Duke’s Championship Odds

Since the start of the season, Flagg has consistently increased evaluators’ confidence in his NBA potential. Scouts have noted his ability to handle pressure, lead Duke to a successful season, and improve his teammates, including fellow highly-ranked freshmen Kon Knueppel and Khaman Maluach.

An Eastern Conference GM admitted initial skepticism about Duke’s top-tier potential but acknowledged Flagg’s significant impact in elevating the team to a championship contender, despite the ACC being less competitive overall this year.

Players with Flagg’s level of hype often struggle to meet expectations, but he has managed to deliver both individually and in terms of team success. His conduct throughout a high-profile season has solidified his reputation.

An Eastern Conference scout emphasized Flagg’s remarkable unselfishness and productivity under intense scrutiny and hype.

While Flagg has proven much at the college level, scouts are eager to see his performance in the NCAA tournament’s high-pressure environment. A deep tournament run would further validate his season and provide compelling matchups as he prepares for the NBA.

The same scout expressed curiosity about how Flagg will perform against stronger defenses and increased defensive attention as the tournament progresses, particularly against elite defensive teams.

Will Flagg Return to Duke?

While there’s no indication that his recent injury scare will influence his decision, the possibility of Flagg returning for his sophomore year remains. In a preseason interview, Flagg expressed his excitement about playing for Duke.

When asked about his future, Flagg mentioned he is focused on the present. He also told The Athletic about wanting to return next year. Duke fans have even chanted “one more year!” during home games.

One Western Conference executive believes Flagg’s family will not pressure him regarding his decision.

This executive expressed surprise if Flagg chose to stay, suggesting he might prefer to remain in a familiar environment a bit longer, considering he is young for his grade due to reclassifying.

Historically, some projected top-five picks, like Marcus Smart, Joakim Noah, and Al Horford, have returned to college. However, these were not projected No. 1 overall picks.

After Duke’s season concludes, Flagg has until the NBA draft’s early-entry deadline in late April to decide. A surprising early exit in the tournament could potentially influence him to consider returning.

NBA executives noted that Flagg’s significant NIL earnings might also be a factor in his decision, reflecting the changing landscape of college basketball finances.

However, ESPN’s Bobby Marks estimates that returning to Duke could cost Flagg between $75 million and $125 million in potential NBA salary due to delaying his entry into the league and pushing back his eligibility for larger contracts later in his career. This financial risk, combined with the risk of injury, makes a second college season a potentially risky choice for a projected top pick.

An Eastern Conference scout stated he couldn’t recall a No. 1 pick ever deciding to return to college.