With the European club football season now concluded, there is little left for the world`s top players to do on the pitch to influence their chances of winning the Ballon d`Or. The prestigious award winner will be revealed on September 22nd, leaving plenty of time for passionate debate until then.
Discussing who has been the best footballer globally in any given season is always engaging. While collective team honors are undoubtedly the most important prizes in sports, evaluating individual excellence holds significant merit. This year`s race promises to be particularly fascinating, lacking the clear, dominant favorite often seen during Lionel Messi`s prime.
At the beginning of 2025, Mohamed Salah appeared to be the frontrunner, performing at an imperious level. Few could have predicted the dramatic rise of Paris Saint-Germain from Champions League hopefuls to Europe`s premier side. This surge has propelled their star forward, Ousmane Dembele, into the position of strong favorite to actually claim the award.
However, our focus here is not on predicting the likely winner based on odds, but on arguing who truly *should* win. What factors decide this? Output is paramount. Given that scoring and creating goals are the most valuable actions in football, players excelling in these areas will be heavily weighted. Nevertheless, preventing the opposition from scoring remains crucial, although perhaps this season`s incredible attacking displays mean we won`t see a defensive player like Fabio Cannavaro take the prize.
While avoiding excessive focus on trophy counts, it`s undeniable that goals, assists, and clean sheets directly contribute to winning major honors. The Ballon d`Or criteria explicitly consider a player`s contribution to `team performances and achievements`. Striking a balance between team success, individual brilliance, and `class and fair play` (the third criterion) is an art, but it must be informed by objective analysis.
At this late stage of the season, raw statistical output is the primary driver. Early in a campaign, metrics like expected goals (xG) or per-90 stats offer insight into potential performance, but for 2025, we have the full picture of the season`s accomplishments. Here`s how the top contenders rank based on deservingness:
1. Mohamed Salah, Liverpool (+900)
Before this season, only two players in Premier League history had achieved 47 goal involvements, both requiring longer, 42-game campaigns. Salah matched this record while easing up towards the finish, ending his season with a stunning 34 goals and 23 assists across all competitions. Liverpool`s early exit from the Champions League should not overshadow his impact; he single-handedly powered an underdog Liverpool side to comfortably win Europe`s most competitive domestic league.
2. Raphinha, Barcelona (+1000)
What a remarkable transformation. At the start of the season, Barcelona`s management reportedly sought to offload Raphinha. Nine months later, he was the undisputed star of their league title triumph. The Brazilian was even better in the Champions League, matching Cristiano Ronaldo`s record with 21 goal contributions in the competition. Had Barcelona won the Champions League, this output likely would have secured him the top spot.
3. Ousmane Dembele, PSG (-200)
The argument for Dembele is straightforward. His development into one of the world`s elite center forwards was arguably the most significant factor in PSG`s Champions League victory. He led the line brilliantly, delivering outstanding performances in the season`s biggest matches. However, the two players ranked above him maintained their exceptional form over the entire year in arguably more challenging domestic environments.
4. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, PSG (+1600)
The top three likely occupy a tier of their own. From here, we rank players who, while perhaps not Ballon d`Or winners this year, have been undeniably brilliant. Kvaratskhelia fits this description perfectly, representing another key mid-season addition that elevated PSG to a superteam. While his direct goal/assist numbers might not match those above him, Kvaratskhelia excels at creating dangerous opportunities for his team with flair and dynamism.
5. Pedri, Barcelona (+3300)
Widely acclaimed as the standout midfielder of the season. Toni Kroos recently stated, `A player like Pedri is more important than Lamine Yamal, Raphinha or Lewandowski,` labeling him `the best in the world in his position.` His ball progression statistics were predictably superb, but the 22-year-old also impressed many with his strong commitment to tackling and interceptions.
6. Lamine Yamal, Barcelona (+275)
In terms of pure output, Yamal`s 39 goal involvements place him slightly behind the top three. This is absolutely incredible for any player, let alone a 17-year-old. His ability to deliver such impactful performances in high-pressure matches like Champions League semifinals has added significant narrative force to his candidacy and makes him one of the current favorites. Based on his current trajectory, it seems a matter of when, not if, he joins the footballing elite.
7. Achraf Hakimi, PSG (+5000)
Several PSG players deserve consideration for the top 10, but Hakimi edges it for two reasons. First, his relentless attacking and defensive dynamism embodies the qualities of Luis Enrique`s successful side. Second, his crucial goals in the quarter-finals, semi-finals, and final add significant weight to his case for contributing to team success.
8. Kylian Mbappe, Real Madrid (+3300)
An argument could be made that Mbappe`s integration into Real Madrid caused enough disruption to disqualify him from the Ballon d`Or shortlist. However, the team`s struggles were not solely due to a new signing, as they were significantly impacted by defensive injuries. Regardless, Real Madrid likely benefited immensely from Mbappe`s contribution of 42 goals throughout the season.
9. Virgil van Dijk, Liverpool (+10000)
Van Dijk has been absolutely outstanding throughout the season. Any marginal loss in pace he may have experienced has been more than compensated for by the significant improvements in his ball-playing abilities developed over recent years. His leadership and defensive solidity were key for Liverpool.
10. Harry Kane, Bayern Munich (+10000)
This case is relatively straightforward. Kane ranks second among players in Europe`s top five leagues for goal contributions, achieving this in nearly 1,000 fewer minutes than Mohamed Salah. Even at the age of 31, he maintains league-leading scoring numbers and ranks in the top 10 for assists, now adding major trophies to his decorated career.
