The essence of the NBA playoffs lies in the specific matchups, both between entire teams and individual players. Teams built around size might need to adapt when facing a smaller, fast-paced squad that excels at shooting threes. A quick guard who thrives in transition could find themselves forced to navigate slower, half-court possessions.
Which specific clashes are having the biggest impact on the first round? While top seeds like the Oklahoma City Thunder and Cleveland Cavaliers dominated their series with comprehensive wins, the ongoing back-and-forth between the Nuggets and Clippers, the tight finishes in the Knicks-Pistons series, and the potential upset brewing in the Lakers-Timberwolves matchup highlight the significance of these particular battles.
Let`s delve into the individual player duels and strategic confrontations that are proving most critical in the six series that are still undecided, starting in New York, where the league`s Clutch Player of the Year is proving his worth.
New York Knicks vs. Detroit Pistons
Matchup: Jalen Brunson vs. Ausar Thompson and Dennis Schroder`s Defense
Jalen Brunson`s remarkable ability to generate offense quickly, particularly in crucial moments, has been a major factor. Ausar Thompson, a tenacious 6`6″ second-year wing, has primarily defended the 6`2″ Knicks` star, limiting him to 39% shooting and 23 points in the first quarters of games. However, Thompson`s inexperience in his first NBA postseason has led to foul trouble and turnovers. As a result, Pistons coach JB Bickerstaff has often opted to use Dennis Schroder to close games.
Schroder brings valuable postseason experience and possesses better ballhandling and shooting skills than Thompson. However, Brunson has found significantly more success scoring against Schroder than against the longer, more disruptive Thompson. Brunson`s fourth-quarter scoring, including 15 points in the final period of Game 4 after an ankle scare, has been historically prolific. His average of 13.3 points per fourth quarter would be the highest recorded in the play-by-play era (since 1996-97), according to ESPN Research. Given Brunson`s late-game effectiveness in these tight contests, Bickerstaff may need to reconsider his defensive assignments against the Knicks` All-Star guard down the stretch.
Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Matchup: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. The Field (Everyone Else)
Giannis Antetokounmpo`s extraordinarily high usage rate (35.9%) in the playoffs, trailing only Paolo Banchero, is a clear indicator of the Bucks` situation. With Damian Lillard suffering a serious Achilles injury in Game 4 and trade acquisition Kyle Kuzma providing minimal offensive impact (averaging six points on 33% shooting), Giannis is forced to carry an immense load.
The Bucks` offensive struggles are compounded by Giannis having to constantly attack the Pacers` defense, which is designed to `wall off` the paint. This defensive strategy is effective because the rest of the Bucks roster poses limited playmaking threats. However, the primary reason the Bucks appear doomed isn`t just their offense, but their complete inability to slow down Indiana`s high-powered attack.
The Pacers` offensive efficiency was highlighted in Game 4, where they scored 80 points from uncontested shots in their dominant victory – the most in any playoff game since this metric was first tracked in the 2013-14 season. Furthermore, they tied an NBA playoff record by having eight different players score at least 12 points.
Boston Celtics vs. Orlando Magic
Matchup: Kristaps Porzingis vs. Orlando`s Physical Defense
It hasn`t been a smooth series for Boston`s 7`3″ center. Kristaps Porzingis even sustained a cut to his forehead from an elbow in Game 2. The Magic`s physical defense has clearly impacted his shooting. Porzingis has made just 14% of his three-point attempts (2-for-14) and a poor 23% (3-for-13) from the non-restricted paint area, where he often seeks to post up. This is a stark contrast to the regular season, where he was the most efficient post-up player with at least 100 opportunities, according to NBA Advanced Stats.
It`s crucial for Boston to get Porzingis, usually a reliable shooter, back on track, especially if they face the Knicks in the next round. New York has struggled throughout the season to defend floor-spacing big men (Porzingis himself hit eight threes and a game-winning dagger against them earlier this month). Recognizing the need to snap Porzingis` slump, coach Joe Mazzulla wisely tweaked the offense in Game 4 in a subtle way the Magic didn`t anticipate.
Orlando has been diligent in preventing three-pointers, holding the NBA`s most prolific three-point shooting team to just 33.0 attempts per game, significantly below their season average of 48.2. Boston countered this by having Porzingis cut towards the basket after setting screens rather than just popping out for threes. This adjustment led to a couple of dunks for Porzingis in the first quarter of Game 4. Perhaps not coincidentally, he then hit his only two three-pointers of the series later in that game, marking his most efficient performance so far.
Denver Nuggets vs. LA Clippers
Matchup: Nikola Jokic vs. Clippers Help Defenders (and Rebounders)
The dramatic ending of Game 4, where Nikola Jokic`s contested airball was immediately put back by Aaron Gordon for the winning basket, perfectly encapsulates the dilemma the Clippers face. On that play, Ivica Zubac provided excellent individual defense on Jokic, and Kawhi Leonard offered timely help with a double team. However, this meant LA`s two best rebounders were far away, unable to secure the crucial miss.
Jokic`s offensive mastery has a hypnotic effect on defenses, often causing them to lose focus on other tasks. A clear indicator of the Clippers` divided attention on defense is their rebounding performance. Despite having the NBA`s best defensive rebounding percentage in the regular season (73.4%), they possess the second-worst mark in these playoffs (47.2%). Too often in this series, they successfully stop Jokic or another Nugget initially but fail to complete the defensive possession by securing the rebound.
Clippers coach Tyronn Lue acknowledged this issue, telling reporters, “You pay a lot of attention to [Jokic] and you kind of lose sight of all the other guys and things that you want to take away. So there`s slippage with how we want to guard certain players and what we want to do.”
Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors
Matchup: Draymond Green vs. Alperen Sengun
While several players have been impactful – Jalen Green`s inconsistency, Brandin Podziemski`s emergence as a ball handler, or even Steven Adams forcing `Hack-a-Shaq` tactics – the most crucial duel is between Draymond Green and Alperen Sengun. Houston`s chance to potentially tie the series in Game 4 came down to this specific matchup. Sengun attempted a game-tying floater over Green`s outstretched arm, but it missed, and Jimmy Butler III secured the rebound, triggering a Warriors celebration led by Green himself.
The physical battle between the two big men has been constant throughout the series. It`s notable that Sengun`s dominant 31-point performance in Game 4 occurred primarily during periods when Green was off the court due to foul trouble. This makes Green`s critical defensive stop on Sengun at the end of the game even more significant, considering the late-game situation and the risk of Green fouling out in a potential overtime scenario.
The dynamic between them has shifted dramatically since Game 1. After scoring 17 points and averaging 1.21 points per play against Green as the primary defender in the first game, Sengun has been significantly less effective in Games 2 through 4. According to ESPN Research, he has scored just 14 points and averaged only 0.53 points per play when guarded by Green in those three contests.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Matchup: Luka Doncic vs. The Driving Timberwolves
No single defender has been attacked off the dribble more frequently in these playoffs than Luka Doncic. Through the first four games of the series, the Timberwolves have driven at him 60 times. In Game 4 alone, they targeted him on 15 possessions, yielding a highly efficient 109 points per 100 possessions on those plays.
This is a simple yet effective offensive strategy for the Timberwolves. Anthony Edwards, who scored 43 points in Game 4, observed that the Lakers looked exhausted after their starting five played the entire second half. Edwards leveraged his scoring threat to draw Doncic and other defenders before passing to teammates for easier looks. (His last made basket in Game 4 came with over seven minutes remaining, illustrating his shift to playmaking). In one specific instance with 6:30 left, Doncic lunged at Edwards on the right wing, leaving Jaden McDaniels wide open on the backside for a pass, drive, and layup over Lakers guard Austin Reaves.
Targeting Doncic defensively proved highly successful for the Celtics in last season`s NBA Finals. It not only generated scoring opportunities for Boston but also potentially wore down Doncic, impacting his energy on the offensive end where he is a lethal ball handler. As Mavericks GM Nico Harrison has often said, “Defense wins championships.” The Timberwolves are clearly attempting to capitalize on Doncic`s defensive weaknesses as part of their strategy to advance.
