Just days into the official start of free agent negotiations and a week after the draft, the NBA offseason has already delivered its characteristic burst of activity. We`ve seen massive, unexpected contracts, significant trades, a record-breaking deal, and ongoing drama surrounding multi-time MVP players.
To make sense of this chaotic period, it`s helpful to identify which teams and trends are coming out ahead and which are lagging behind so far. It`s worth remembering that these early designations aren`t set in stone; major moves like the trades of Donovan Mitchell, Damian Lillard, and Karl-Anthony Towns have occurred later in the offseason in previous years, sometimes as late as September or October.
However, based on the activity to date, here`s an analysis of the most impactful transactions and developments. Let`s start with the team that appears to be the clearest winner of the 2025 offseason thus far.
Winner: Houston Rockets
Even if the Rockets had made no other moves, they would still be considered offseason winners solely based on the Kevin Durant trade. The acquisition of Durant was a decisive victory for Houston, bringing a player who perfectly addresses their primary roster weakness without requiring them to sacrifice any of their core young talent or future draft picks in return.
But Houston didn`t stop there. They further solidified their roster by signing Dorian Finney-Smith to a four-year, $53 million contract, bringing Clint Capela back on a three-year, $21.5 million deal, restructuring Fred VanVleet`s contract to be more team-friendly, signing Jabari Smith Jr. to a sensible extension, and retaining key rotation players Jae`Sean Tate, Aaron Holiday, and Jeff Green.
The result is a deep and versatile roster capable of winning in multiple ways: through stout defense, strong rebounding, size, physicality, blending youth and experience, and leveraging Durant`s exceptional shot-making ability. This revamped Rockets squad is poised to challenge the Oklahoma City Thunder for the title of the league`s deepest team.
More significantly, the Rockets are now positioned to challenge the Thunder for Western Conference supremacy. They appear to be the second-best team in the West and the primary threat to Oklahoma City`s aspiration of becoming the first team since the 2017-2018 Warriors (featuring Kevin Durant) to win back-to-back championships.
This roster isn`t flawless. Houston faces potential challenges in the backcourt depth, relying heavily on Fred VanVleet, who is now in his 30s and past his athletic prime. A significant leap from third overall pick Reed Sheppard, who had a quiet rookie year averaging only 4.4 points in 12.6 minutes, would be crucial. The frontcourt rotation could also become complicated regarding playing time, especially with Capela joining Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams, potentially leaning too heavily on dual-center alignments that are effective only in specific situations.
However, these are minor concerns compared to the overall strength of the roster. The Rockets successfully managed their salary cap, effectively replaced Dillon Brooks with Finney-Smith (whose reduced point-of-attack defensive role is mitigated by Amen Thompson and Tari Eason), and significantly upgraded from the inefficient Jalen Green to Kevin Durant, one of the most efficient perimeter scorers in NBA history. These moves exemplify how to successfully navigate an offseason.
Loser: Los Angeles Lakers
From the moment the Lakers pulled off a surprising trade for Luka Doncic, their most pressing need became a center. They had lost their starting center, Anthony Davis, in the Doncic deal, and Doncic`s style of play thrives with a dynamic pick-and-roll partner, as evidenced by Daniel Gafford`s success and Dereck Lively II`s impact alongside him in Dallas.
It was therefore unsurprising when the Lakers initially agreed in principle to trade for a young, athletic center immediately after acquiring Doncic. However, their deal for Mark Williams fell through due to a failed physical, leaving the Lakers to rely on their existing roster. Jaxson Hayes, who started four playoff games, clearly didn`t earn coach JJ Redick`s full trust, playing minimal minutes before being effectively benched in favor of a small-ball lineup in their final playoff loss.
Even after a disappointing playoff exit, their top offseason priority seemed obvious. Yet, just days into the free agency period, their primary targets at center signed elsewhere, leaving them to settle for Deandre Ayton, who unexpectedly became available via a buyout from the Portland Trail Blazers.
Ayton doesn`t profile as an ideal solution for a team aiming for a championship in the short term, nor does he appear to be a long-term partner for Doncic. The former No. 1 pick from 2018 (selected two spots ahead of Doncic) is neither a strong rim runner nor a floor spacer, and his performance peaked roughly five years ago. Despite often posting impressive box score statistics, most widely respected advanced metrics consistently rate Ayton as a below-average player.
Furthermore, Ayton`s contract – a two-year deal with a player option – offers little upside for the team. If he performs well in the first year, he is likely to opt out. If he struggles or fails to gain coach Redick`s favor, he remains on the team`s books for a second season.
This situation is particularly precarious as the Lakers navigate managing LeBron James` potential dissatisfaction and attempting to secure a long-term contract extension from Luka Doncic later this summer. As of now, the current roster composition doesn`t offer compelling reasons for Doncic to commit long-term. The team`s rotation is unbalanced, overloaded with power forwards like Rui Hachimura, Maxi Kleber, Jarred Vanderbilt, and naturally, James, but lacking reliable centers. Their only other notable move beyond signing Ayton was replacing Dorian Finney-Smith with Jake LaRavia.
Winner: Big-man depth
One significant factor contributing to the Lakers` difficulty in finding a center is that most desirable big men were quickly signed or acquired by other teams. A notable trend in the first week of the offseason has been teams prioritizing big-man depth, often adding players even if they already seemed set at the position.
The Houston Rockets signed Clint Capela despite having Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams. The San Antonio Spurs acquired Luke Kornet to play alongside Victor Wembanyama. The Denver Nuggets traded for Jonas Valanciunas, providing Nikola Jokic with arguably his best backup in years. The LA Clippers added Brook Lopez to back up Ivica Zubac. The New York Knicks signed Guerschon Yabusele, joining Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson. The New Orleans Pelicans signed Kevon Looney to split time with promising young center Yves Missi. The Toronto Raptors extended Jakob Poeltl and signed Sandro Mamukelashvili. The Milwaukee Bucks signed Myles Turner and Jericho Sims, in addition to extending Bobby Portis.
The emphasis on potentially playing multiple big men also manifested on draft night, as two non-playoff Western Conference teams invested in long-term center pairings. The Portland Trail Blazers selected 7-foot-1 prospect Yang Hansen to complement their 7-foot-2 second-year center Donovan Clingan. The Phoenix Suns made quick moves, trading for veteran Mark Williams and drafting Khaman Maluach, the first center selected in the draft.
Other contending teams also committed significant resources to retaining their existing big-man rotations. The Minnesota Timberwolves re-signed Naz Reid and Julius Randle for a combined $225 million; coupled with Rudy Gobert`s extension starting this season, the Timberwolves have committed $334.5 million to their centers and power forwards, even after trading Karl-Anthony Towns. Similarly, the Memphis Grizzlies retained Jaren Jackson Jr. and Santi Aldama on deals totaling $292.5 million.
Moreover, after the Oklahoma City Thunder found success playing Isaiah Hartenstein (a free agent signing last summer) alongside Chet Holmgren en route to a championship, they extended their third big man, Jaylin Williams, this week. The Dallas Mavericks have also embraced a “super big” identity since trading for Anthony Davis; until Kyrie Irving returns from injury, their five best players are naturally suited for power forward or center: Davis, newly extended Gafford, Lively, P.J. Washington, and the number one overall draft pick, Cooper Flagg.
This league-wide trend could lead to fascinating stylistic matchups against the few teams not following suit, such as the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors. However, taken together, these moves send a clear message: after a decade of experimenting with small-ball lineups, big men are definitively back in vogue. This isn`t limited to MVP-caliber players like Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid, but applies to players of all roles and skill levels, provided they possess the necessary size.
Loser: Opponents trying to score inside against the Spurs
A specific statistic highlights the defensive potential of one of these new big-man pairings. According to GeniusIQ tracking, over the past two seasons, among 166 players who have defended at least 300 shot attempts within 5 feet of the basket, Luke Kornet ranks fifth (52.2% field goal percentage allowed) and Victor Wembanyama ranks sixth (52.3% allowed).
The Spurs recognized Kornet`s value, signing the journeyman center to a four-year, $41 million contract. He is expected to be an excellent backup behind Wembanyama. However, their ability to play together should not be overlooked; a lineup featuring both Wemby and Kornet is unlikely to face spacing issues on offense because Wembanyama often operates on the perimeter, and together they would form a devastating defensive frontcourt.
Winner: Denver Nuggets
For several years, the Denver Nuggets` starting lineup has been among the league`s elite. Last season continued this trend, even with Christian Braun stepping into the spot vacated by Kentavious Caldwell-Pope`s free-agent departure. Their starters posted a net rating of plus-10.6 in the regular season and an even better plus-11.3 in the playoffs. Even when facing the formidable Oklahoma City Thunder in the second round, that quintet maintained a plus-10.3 net rating per 100 possessions.
Yet, this consistent success didn`t prevent the first significant breakup of Denver`s long-standing core, which had been together since before their 2022-23 championship run. The Nuggets traded Michael Porter Jr. and an unprotected 2032 first-round draft pick for Cam Johnson, who is an ideal fit for Denver`s offensive system. Johnson is a high-volume, knockdown shooter (39% from 3-point range for his career), and while he lacks Porter`s size, he offers more dynamic offensive creation off the dribble.
Crucially, the financial savings gained from this trade – Porter was set to earn approximately $17 million more than Johnson next season – provided the Nuggets with the necessary salary cap flexibility to make further additions to the roster.
First, they brought back Bruce Brown Jr., another player I highlighted as an underrated free agent target, who has a proven track record of thriving alongside Nikola Jokic. They then traded Dario Saric, who appeared in only 16 games (none in the playoffs) for Denver after an ill-advised free agent signing last summer, for Jonas Valanciunas, an exceptionally qualified backup big man. Valanciunas averaged a robust 20 points and 15 rebounds per 36 minutes last season, consistent with his peak performance levels.
With these additions, Denver should no longer experience significant drop-offs when Jokic rests, a problem that previously occurred when relying on players like Zeke Nnaji and the aging DeAndre Jordan.
Finally, the Nuggets signed Tim Hardaway Jr., a willing and capable shooter (36% from 3-point range for his career). Along with Cam Johnson, Hardaway should help significantly boost the Nuggets` 3-point attempt rate, which ranked 30th (last) in the league last season.
In essence, the Nuggets lost two players from last season`s playoff rotation, Michael Porter Jr. and Russell Westbrook. However, they added four players capable of contributing to the rotation. Denver should now comfortably be able to go nine or ten deep, with a projected starting five including Brown, Hardaway, Valanciunas, and Peyton Watson, plus the potential for a young player like Julian Strawther to make a significant leap.
The Nuggets came closer than any other team in the Western Conference to dethroning the Thunder this past spring. And with these offseason moves, their roster for the 2025-26 season looks considerably stronger than the previous one.
Loser: Milwaukee Bucks
To be fair to the Milwaukee Bucks, this categorization is less a direct criticism of their specific actions this week and more a reflection of a difficult period the organization has experienced over the past two years. This challenging stretch began with the hiring of short-tenured coach Adrian Griffin and the significant trade for Damian Lillard, and culminated this week with the decision to waive Lillard and stretch the remaining $113 million on his contract.
The Bucks were placed in a difficult position as soon as Lillard suffered a torn Achilles tendon in April. The team possesses very few valuable assets beyond Giannis Antetokounmpo: they lack young talent, control over their upcoming draft picks, and the financial flexibility needed to significantly upgrade the roster around their two-time MVP. While they did manage to create some short-term salary cap room by stretching Lillard`s contract and trading Pat Connaughton – enabling them to acquire center Myles Turner from the Indiana Pacers – this came at a substantial long-term cost.
Damian Lillard`s stretched salary will now count as $22.5 million against the Bucks` salary cap for each of the next five seasons. To put this in perspective, $22.5 million is roughly the annual salary that a valuable role player like Cam Johnson is set to earn in upcoming seasons. (It`s also comparable to what Kyle Kuzma will earn, highlighting the fact that the Bucks arguably have roster holes equivalent to two players in that salary range).
This financial burden might be acceptable if the Bucks were positioned to contend for the 2025-26 championship. However, even with the modest hope held by some fringe Eastern Conference contenders for next year, and even with Myles Turner providing a younger replacement for Brook Lopez alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo, it is difficult to envision a team that is projected to start Kevin Porter Jr. at point guard, and possesses such porous perimeter defense, realistically competing for a title.
Milwaukee`s front office deserves credit for its aggressive approach in pursuing win-now moves designed to maximize Giannis Antetokounmpo`s prime, a strategy that dates back to the trade that brought Jrue Holiday to the team and soon after resulted in a championship. But boldness alone is not sufficient to deliver more playoff victories to Milwaukee; only acquiring and retaining high-quality NBA players can achieve that. And even after this week`s surprising developments, the Bucks simply do not possess enough high-quality talent.
Winner: Atlanta Hawks
It is inherently challenging for teams led by a smaller point guard to make deep playoff runs, primarily because that offensive centerpiece often becomes a defensive target for opponents. The most effective strategy to counteract this vulnerability is the model successfully employed by the Indiana Pacers, who surrounded their star point guard Tyrese Haliburton with high-caliber defenders at every other position en route to reaching Game 7 of the NBA Finals.
The Atlanta Hawks appear to be actively trying to replicate this defensive-minded approach, and they have spent the last two offseasons diligently building a more formidable roster around their star point guard, Trae Young. This offseason, they made an opportunistic trade for Kristaps Porzingis. While Porzingis comes with injury concerns, he is undeniably a player who raises a team`s ceiling. He became available because the Boston Celtics were looking to offload salaries. As part of this deal, the Hawks also managed to shed the negative contract of Terance Mann – a player they arguably should not have acquired at the trade deadline – at the cost of a late first-round pick. Furthermore, the Hawks emerged victorious in the pursuit of Nickeil Alexander-Walker and replaced Caris LeVert (who departed for Detroit) with Luke Kennard, who currently holds the title of active leader in career 3-point percentage (43.8%).
Atlanta`s rotation is now designed to surround Trae Young with the Defensive Player of the Year runner-up Dyson Daniels; long, athletic wings in Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jalen Johnson, and the 2024 first overall pick, Zaccharie Risacher; and strong defensive centers in Kristaps Porzingis and Onyeka Okongwu. Throughout Trae Young`s career, the Hawks have never finished a season with a defensive ranking better than 18th in the league. However, provided they minimize minutes played with a potentially vulnerable Young-Kennard backcourt, they have a realistic chance to field an above-average defense this season.
Significantly, none of the previously mentioned transactions represent Atlanta`s most impressive move of the offseason. That distinction belongs to the absolute “heist” the Hawks pulled off on draft night. They charged the New Orleans Pelicans an exorbitant price to move up just ten spots in the draft, from the 23rd pick to the 13th. Despite the high cost, the Pelicans agreed! As a result, the Hawks now own the valuable, unprotected first-round draft pick belonging to whichever team finishes worse next summer between the Pelicans and the Milwaukee Bucks.
Given the continued uncertainty surrounding the Bucks and the New Orleans Pelicans` challenging position in a loaded Western Conference, that future draft pick is highly likely to land in the lottery. For context, according to my draft value chart, the difference in value between the 13th pick and the 23rd pick is equivalent to the value of the 28th pick. Based on this, the Hawks are almost certain to have won this trade decisively.
With all these roster upgrades and operating in a wide-open Eastern Conference, the Hawks could potentially move beyond their annual pattern of competing for a play-in spot and instead soar towards a top-four seed next season. The only minor negative mark against the Hawks` otherwise stellar summer is the loss of Larry Nance Jr., who will serve as a sneakily effective bench upgrade for the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Loser: New Orleans Pelicans
If the Atlanta Hawks are considered winners primarily due to their opportunistic draft-night trade, the team that was on the other side of that trade must logically appear on the losers` side of the ledger. The decision to pay such a high price to move up was simply baffling and suggests that the new front office leadership, featuring Joe Dumars and Troy Weaver, significantly misunderstood the team`s current situation and the composition of their roster.
The Pelicans finished 14th in the Western Conference last season. While they will almost certainly improve upon their 21-61 record with better health in the 2025-26 season, it is challenging to identify many teams they are likely to surpass in the standings. Even if the Phoenix Suns decline, the teams that finished below New Orleans or just above them – the 13th-place Spurs, 12th-place Trail Blazers, and 10th-place Mavericks – all made significant improvements this summer. The Pelicans will need to overtake all three of these teams (or two of them plus another team higher in the standings) just to reach the back end of the play-in tournament.
Crucially, if the Pelicans fail to reach the playoffs next season, they will be sending a valuable lottery pick to the Atlanta Hawks. They took this significant risk to draft a prospect, Derik Queen, who possesses the potential to develop into a star but does not immediately appear to be a superb fit alongside their incumbent star player, Zion Williamson. Both players are somewhat undersized big men who flash similar strengths and weaknesses. Key questions remain: Can lineups featuring both Williamson and Queen provide adequate floor spacing? Can they effectively defend opponents on the other end of the court?
I might not be criticizing the Pelicans so strongly for just one draft-night decision – regardless of how ill-advised it seemed – if that were their only questionable move of the offseason. However, the other transactions made by the new front office do not collectively form a coherent strategy either.
New Orleans also traded CJ McCollum and Kelly Olynyk for Jordan Poole and Saddiq Bey (additionally swapping second-round picks with Washington). Saddiq Bey could potentially help the Pelicans after missing all of last season due to an ACL tear. However, this trade was essentially New Orleans choosing Jordan Poole over CJ McCollum. While Poole is eight years younger, advanced statistics generally rate the two players as being roughly equal in impact, and Poole`s contract is for an extra year at a higher annual salary ($34 million).
The Pelicans` primary free-agent signing was Kevon Looney, whose effectiveness outside of the Golden State Warriors` unique system remains a significant question mark. It is particularly difficult to envision how this Pelicans offense will generate adequate floor spacing when potentially featuring a lineup with multiple non-shooters; Looney, Zion Williamson, Derik Queen, and starting center Yves Missi have collectively made a combined total of just 51 3-pointers over their entire careers (counting college statistics for Queen and NBA statistics for the other three players), spanning 922 games.
